Canada Small Business Confidence at Over 3-Year High

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, slipped slightly to 59.5 in January 2026, just below December’s three-year high of 59.9. The reading suggests that many small businesses remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Confidence strengthened in Manitoba, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, with all four provinces posting index levels at or above 60. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a three-month outlook, rose 4.2 points to 52.4, signaling a modest improvement. However, short-term confidence remains relatively subdued across all provinces, ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty at the start of 2026.

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, rose for a second consecutive month to 59.9 in December 2025 from an upwardly revised 55.8 in November. It is the highest reading since May 2022, led by gains in the health and education, retail and the insurance sectors. On the other hand, the biggest drops in optimism were registered in hospitality and construction, as they are somewhat seasonal industries. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a 3-month outlook, rose by 2.0 point to 48.6, indicating only a modest improvement. Despite the rise in sentiment, more than half of small businesses still report insufficient demand.

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, rose to 55.5 in November 2025 from an upwardly revised 46.7 in October. It was the highest level since December 2024, suggesting small business optimism recovered somewhat, supported by easing price pressure expectations, despite ongoing challenges and uncertainty in 2025. The short-term optimism index, reflecting a 3-month outlook, also inched up 1.2 points to 46.0. Long-term confidence strengthened across most provinces, except Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, which remained largely unchanged. Sector-wise, confidence improved broadly, with the exception of health and education and agriculture.