Canada GDP Seen Shrinking in September

The Canadian economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in September 2026, as declines in manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction were partially offset by gains in utilities and wholesale trade. Based on preliminary September data, GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.3% in Q3 2026, following growth of 0.8% in Q2. In August, however, economic activity stalled for a second consecutive month. The services-producing industries aggregate edged down by 0.1% in August, as declines in wholesale trade and public administration were partly offset by gains in retail trade. Meanwhile, the goods-producing industries aggregate edged up by 0.1%, with growth in manufacturing and construction more than offsetting a decline in utilities.

The Canadian GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% from the previous month in August 2026, according to a flash estimate.Growth likely reflected gains in mining and quarrying and retail trade, partly offset by declines in oil and gas extraction. The figure follows a flat reading in July, in line with market expectations, following three consecutive months of growth. The goods-producing sector, which contributes roughly a quarter of the GDP, was essentially unchanged in July, as increases in construction (1.3%) and utilities (1.7%) were offset by declines in manufacturing (-0.9%) and mining, quarrying and oil and gas (-0.5%). Simultaneously, the services-producing industries aggregate remained flat, as growth in sectors such as professional, scientific and technical services (0.3%); real estate and rental and leasing (0.2%) and accommodation and food services (0.8%) was offset by declines in retail trade (-1%) and wholesale trade (-0.4%).

The Canadian GDP is expected to have remained unchanged from the previous month in July of 2026, according to a flash estimate. Preliminary evidence pointed to an increase in real estate, rental and leading, and professional, scientific, and technical services, which offset a decline in retail trade and manufacturing. The figure follows a 0.3% expansion in June, revised higher from a 0.2% increase.