Canada GDP Set to Rebound in April

The Canadian economy likely expanded 0.4% month-over-month in April 2026, the most since January 2025, recovering from a 0.1% drop in March, according to preliminary estimates. In March, the GDP shrank for the first time in five months, mainly driven by a 0.8% contraction in goods-producing industries. Oil and gas extraction decreased 2% and oil and gas extraction (except oil sands) was down 2.3%, the largest drop in over a year, as lower crude petroleum extraction in the Western provinces and Atlantic Canada contributed to the decline. Lower natural gas extraction further contributed. In addition, the construction sector was down 0.6% and retail trade contracted 0.6% while wholesale trade rose 1.8%, to mark the largest back-to-back monthly growth rates in over four years.

The Canadian gross domestic product remained unchanged from the previous month in March of 2026, according to a flash estimate. Increases in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing were offset by decreases in retail trade and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Canadian GDP expanded by 0.2% in February 2026 from the previous month, matching estimates. Manufacturing led growth, rising 1.8% on a 3.6% expansion in durable-goods industries, the largest monthly gain since January 2023. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction grew 0.4% as oil and gas extraction recorded its second consecutive monthly increase and mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) added 1.2%. Wholesale trade rose 0.9% and transportation and warehousing increased 1.2%. Advance data shows the economy is expected to grow 0.4% in Q1 2026.

The Canadian gross domestic product expanded by 0.2% from the previous month in February of 2026, according to a flash estimate. This was supported by higher output in manufacturing, mining, and quarrying, and financial services, which offset contractions for agriculture and forestry. The expansion is set to extend the 0.1% growth rate from January, which was upwardly revised from the initial estimate of a stall. Growth was carried by goods producing industries (0.2%) as higher construction (2.2%) and mining and quarrying (1.2%) offset the drop for manufacturing (-1.4%). In turn, services producing industries stalled. Output increased in finance and insurance (0.5%), and retail trade (0.8%), offsetting the contraction for wholesale trade (-1.2%) and transportation and warehousing (-0.7%), which was pressured by extreme weather conditions that prevented logistics.