Canada GDP Set to Rebound in April

The Canadian GDP is estimated to have expanded by 0.1% from the previous month in May of 2026 with support from finance and insurance, and real estate and leasing services, which were offset by declines in wholesale trade and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, according to preliminary data. This would follow a 0.5% jump in April, revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 0.4%, to mark the sharpest increase in over three years. This reflected fresh traction in a period of surging energy prices and lingering pressure from US tariffs, which drove the BoC to flag significant growth risks to Canada. Mining, quarrying, and oil and as extraction expanded by 2.9% amid the increase in energy prices. Growth was also notable transportation and warehousing (0.9%), accommodation and food services (1%), and in construction (0.7%), which rebounded from five months of declines.

The Canadian economy likely expanded 0.4% month-over-month in April 2026, the most since January 2025, recovering from a 0.1% drop in March, according to preliminary estimates. In March, the GDP shrank for the first time in five months, mainly driven by a 0.8% contraction in goods-producing industries. Oil and gas extraction decreased 2% and oil and gas extraction (except oil sands) was down 2.3%, the largest drop in over a year, as lower crude petroleum extraction in the Western provinces and Atlantic Canada contributed to the decline. Lower natural gas extraction further contributed. In addition, the construction sector was down 0.6% and retail trade contracted 0.6% while wholesale trade rose 1.8%, to mark the largest back-to-back monthly growth rates in over four years.

The Canadian gross domestic product remained unchanged from the previous month in March of 2026, according to a flash estimate. Increases in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing were offset by decreases in retail trade and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Canadian GDP expanded by 0.2% in February 2026 from the previous month, matching estimates. Manufacturing led growth, rising 1.8% on a 3.6% expansion in durable-goods industries, the largest monthly gain since January 2023. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction grew 0.4% as oil and gas extraction recorded its second consecutive monthly increase and mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) added 1.2%. Wholesale trade rose 0.9% and transportation and warehousing increased 1.2%. Advance data shows the economy is expected to grow 0.4% in Q1 2026.