Canada GDP Expected to Pick Up Steam

The Canadian GDP expanded by 0.1% from the previous month in December of 2025, according to an advance estimate. Official data showed that output was essentially unchanged in November. Goods producing industries remained a drag in November as declines in manufacturing and agriculture forestry fishing and hunting weighed on activity. Services output improved as gains in retail trade educational services and transportation and warehousing supported overall growth. The rebound in educational services followed the resumption of classes after strike related disruptions, while transportation and warehousing recovered on the back of postal service normalization and higher warehousing activity. From the previous year, real GDP was up 1.3% in 2025.

The Canadian GDP expanded by 0.1% from the previous month in November of 2025, according to a flash estimate. The increase would partially offset the 0.3% contraction recorded in October. Output from goods producing industries remained a drag in November as declines in manufacturing and mining quarrying and oil and gas extraction weighed on activity. Services output improved as gains in educational services construction and transportation and warehousing supported overall growth. The rebound in educational services followed disruptions in October, while construction activity recovered modestly after recent weakness. Transportation and warehousing also improved after strike related declines in the prior month. From the previous year, real GDP was up 0.4% in October.

The Canadian GDP contracted by 0.3% from the previous month in October of 2025, according to a flash estimate. The decline would more than offset the upwardly revised 0.2% increase in September, to match August’s sharpest monthly contraction in the Canadian economy since December of 2022. Output from goods-producing industries weakened in October as decreases in manufacturing and oil and gas extraction subtracted from growth, even though mining, quarrying and support services rose. Services output also fell, weighed by a decline in educational services and softer activity in some service subsectors, while transportation and warehousing had rebounded in September thanks to a strong air-transportation recovery. Wholesale trade had expanded in September, but retail trade contracted in September. From the previous year, real GDP was up 0.5% in the third quarter.