Canada GDP Seen Stable in August

The Canadian gross domestic product expanded by 0.2% from the previous month in February of 2026, according to a flash estimate. This was supported by higher output in manufacturing, mining, and quarrying, and financial services, which offset contractions for agriculture and forestry. The expansion is set to extend the 0.1% growth rate from January, which was upwardly revised from the initial estimate of a stall. Growth was carried by goods producing industries (0.2%) as higher construction (2.2%) and mining and quarrying (1.2%) offset the drop for manufacturing (-1.4%). In turn, services producing industries stalled. Output increased in finance and insurance (0.5%), and retail trade (0.8%), offsetting the contraction for wholesale trade (-1.2%) and transportation and warehousing (-0.7%), which was pressured by extreme weather conditions that prevented logistics.

The Canadian GDP was unchanged from the previous month in January of 2026, according to an advance estimate. If confirmed, the stall would follow by a 0.2% expansion in the final month of 2025, revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 0.1%, which softened the 0.2% contraction in the Canadian GDP during the fourth quarter of the year. Output from goods producing industries rose by 0.2% in December amid a 1.2% expansion for manufacturers, trimming sharp losses from the two previous months. Output was also higher for utilities (1.2%) and construction (0.3%), offsetting the drop for mining, quarrying, and energy extraction (-0.9%). Output also rose 0.2% for services, with a 1.7% expansion in wholesale trade and a 0.4% increase in financial services.

The Canadian GDP expanded by 0.1% from the previous month in December of 2025, according to an advance estimate. Official data showed that output was essentially unchanged in November. Goods producing industries remained a drag in November as declines in manufacturing and agriculture forestry fishing and hunting weighed on activity. Services output improved as gains in retail trade educational services and transportation and warehousing supported overall growth. The rebound in educational services followed the resumption of classes after strike related disruptions, while transportation and warehousing recovered on the back of postal service normalization and higher warehousing activity. From the previous year, real GDP was up 1.3% in 2025.