Canada Manufacturing Sales Seen Edging Up in September

Canada’s manufacturing sales were essentially unchanged at C$80.2 billion in September 2026, missing estimates of a 0.1% increase and stalling after an upwardly revised 1.8% rise in August. Sales fell in 11 of the 21 surveyed subsectors, with the largest declines in primary metals (-9.5%) and wood products (-7.0%). The drop in primary metals was driven mainly by non-ferrous metal production and processing, excluding aluminum. In contrast, sales of petroleum and coal products rose the most (+10%), driven by higher prices, as constant-dollar sales declined 0.6%. Ongoing Middle East conflict continued to push refined petroleum prices higher. Excluding the petroleum and coal products subsector, total manufacturing sales fell 1.5% in September. On a quarterly basis, manufacturing sales increased 1.7% to C$239.3 billion in Q3.

Canada’s manufacturing sales advance estimate indicates that total manufacturing sales edged up 0.1% month-over-month in September 2026, after rising 1.5% in August. The largest increases were recorded in the petroleum and coal product subsector and the aerospace product and parts industry group.

Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 1.5% month-over-month to C$79.9 billion in August 2026, beating expectations for a 1.1% increase and marking the sharpest rise since April. Sales increased in 12 of the 21 subsectors surveyed. Primary metal sales climbed 14% to a record C$7.6 billion, driven largely by gains in non-ferrous metal (excluding aluminum) production and processing. Chemical sales rose 4.4% to C$6.2 billion, with basic chemicals contributing the most to the increase. In contrast, transportation equipment sales fell 2.6% to C$12 billion, as motor vehicle sales declined 4% and motor vehicle parts sales dropped 4.2%. Sales increased in six provinces, led by Quebec (4%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (58.5%).