Canadian Factory Sales Poised for Biggest increase Since 2023

Canada’s manufacturing sales are expected to rise 3.8% in February 2026, following a 3% decline in January, according to preliminary estimates. The advance reflects higher sales in the transportation equipment and food subsectors. If confirmed, it would mark the strongest monthly advance since January 2023.

Canada’s manufacturing sales fell by 3% month-on-month to C$68.7 billion in January 2026, following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in December 2025 and below preliminary estimates of a 3.3% drop. This marked the lowest level since May 2025, with sales down in 11 of the 21 manufacturing subsectors, led by transportation equipment (-18.2%) and machinery (-5.6%). Meanwhile, the miscellaneous manufacturing subsector cushioned the overall decline, with sales rising 16.8% to $1.5 billion in January, the highest level on record, driven mainly by higher sales in jewelry and silverware manufacturing amid elevated precious metal prices. Manufacturing sales fell in five provinces, with Ontario (-7.7%) posting the largest decline, while Quebec (1.4%) recorded the largest increase. On a year-on-year basis, total manufacturing sales declined by 3.9% in January.

Preliminary estimates indicate that Canada’s manufacturing sales likely declined 3.3% in January 2026, with the largest decreases occurring in the transportation equipment and machinery subsectors.