Canada 10-Year Yield Retreats as Employment Declines

2026-10-09 13:43 By Isabela Couto 1 min. read

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 3.9% after reaching a three-year high of over 4% on October 1st, despite higher yields in the US, as weaker employment data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will refrain from hiking rates.

Employment fell by 68,300, missing expectations for a 7,000 increase, while the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 6.5%.

Recent data also pointed to a cooling economy.

Real GDP estimates rose 0.2% in August, as gains in mining and quarrying and retail trade partly offset a decline in oil and gas extraction.

GDP was essentially unchanged in July, ending a three-month growth streak.

Although August’s result matched expectations, it highlighted a weaker start to the third quarter.

Meanwhile, elevated oil prices continued to fuel inflation concerns and expectations of further rate hikes by central banks, keeping global bond markets under pressure.

The US 10-year Treasury yield remained near multi-decade highs.



News Stream
Canada 10-Year Yield Retreats as Employment Declines
Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 3.9% after reaching a three-year high of over 4% on October 1st, despite higher yields in the US, as weaker employment data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will refrain from hiking rates. Employment fell by 68,300, missing expectations for a 7,000 increase, while the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 6.5%. Recent data also pointed to a cooling economy. Real GDP estimates rose 0.2% in August, as gains in mining and quarrying and retail trade partly offset a decline in oil and gas extraction. GDP was essentially unchanged in July, ending a three-month growth streak. Although August’s result matched expectations, it highlighted a weaker start to the third quarter. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices continued to fuel inflation concerns and expectations of further rate hikes by central banks, keeping global bond markets under pressure. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained near multi-decade highs.
2026-10-09
Canada 10-Year Yield Extends Three-Year High
Canada’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 4% in October, reaching a fresh three-year high as renewed selling in US Treasuries fueled a broader global bond selloff. The US 10-year benchmark yield climbed to its highest level since 2002, extending a months-long rise in sovereign borrowing costs. Higher oil prices have added to inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further interest-rate hikes by central banks, keeping government bonds under pressure worldwide. In Canada, the advance estimate showed real GDP rose 0.2% in August, with gains in mining and quarrying and retail trade partly offset by a decline in oil and gas extraction. GDP was essentially unchanged in July, ending a three-month run of growth. The result was in line with expectations but highlighted a weaker start to the third quarter, reinforcing expectations for the Bank of Canada to hold rates. A US ban on various Canadian imports also took effect, further weighing on growth prospects.
2026-10-01
Canada 10-Year Yield Rises Toward Three-Year High
Canada’s 10-year government bond yield rose to near 4% in late September, approaching a three-year high as the US Treasury selloff resumed. Global government bonds have come under pressure as Middle East-driven oil price gains fuel expectations that central banks, including the Fed, will raise interest rates further. In the US, strong economic activity, along with concerns over large fiscal deficits and rising government debt, is also weighing on the bond market. In contrast, Canada’s advance estimates showed real GDP increased 0.2% in August, with gains in mining and quarrying and retail trade partly offset by a decline in oil and gas extraction. GDP was essentially unchanged in July, ending a three-month run of growth. The result was in line with expectations but highlighted a weaker start to the third quarter, reinforcing expectations for the Bank of Canada to hold rates. The US ban on various Canadian goods imports also took effect, further weighing on growth prospects.
2026-09-29