Canada 10Y Bond Yield Hits 4-week High

The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond rose further to above 3.6%, its highest level in about a month, tracking a global increase in borrowing costs as the conflict in the Middle East adds to inflationary pressures. Investors also digested the Bank of Canada’s latest policy decision. The central bank kept its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, noting that while the evolving conflict has increased market volatility, it does not expect the recent surge in energy prices to de-anchor inflation expectations, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike this year. Canada’s headline CPI rose 2.4% in March, driven mainly by sharply higher gasoline prices. Short-term inflation expectations have also picked up, with inflation likely to rise further to around 3% in April.

Canada 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 3.56%, the highest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Canada 10Y Bond Yield gained 4.90 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 46.95 basis points.

The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond hovered around 3.48%, as rising oil prices, driven by ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, kept upward pressure on inflation. US–Iran talks have stalled, and despite mixed signals on a possible resumption, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, further fuelling price pressures. Recent data underscored this trend: Canada’s headline producer price index rose 2.4% month-on-month in March, well above the 1.6% forecast, while raw materials prices surged 12%, the sharpest increase since 2020. Earlier figures also showed annual consumer inflation accelerating by 0.6 percentage points to 2.4%, in line with Bank of Canada warnings that higher energy costs are lifting inflation expectations. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates steady at this week’s meeting, though markets remain split on whether it will signal a potential hike or an extended pause for the rest of the year.