Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Stable After GDP

2026-01-30 15:21 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond has edged back toward 3.43% as markets weigh weaker domestic momentum against a firmer US yield backdrop and shifting expectations for US policy.

Canadian data showing real GDP essentially flat in November, with a third contraction in four months across goods-producing industries led by manufacturing, has weakened the growth outlook and reduced the case for tighter policy.

This view was reinforced by the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep rates unchanged while emphasizing data dependence and lingering excess supply in its forward guidance, signaling limited urgency to shift toward a more restrictive stance and capping domestic yield support.

At the same time, stabilization in longer-dated yields reflects spillovers from higher global risk-free rates and cross-border duration pricing, which have offset the drag from softer growth and kept Canada’s long end from extending its earlier decline.



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Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Stable After GDP
The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond has edged back toward 3.43% as markets weigh weaker domestic momentum against a firmer US yield backdrop and shifting expectations for US policy. Canadian data showing real GDP essentially flat in November, with a third contraction in four months across goods-producing industries led by manufacturing, has weakened the growth outlook and reduced the case for tighter policy. This view was reinforced by the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep rates unchanged while emphasizing data dependence and lingering excess supply in its forward guidance, signaling limited urgency to shift toward a more restrictive stance and capping domestic yield support. At the same time, stabilization in longer-dated yields reflects spillovers from higher global risk-free rates and cross-border duration pricing, which have offset the drag from softer growth and kept Canada’s long end from extending its earlier decline.
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