The Bank of Canada's policy rate stands at 2.25%. Interest rate futures price an implied rate of 2.42% at the 28 October 2026 decision, 17 basis points above the current level. Markets assign a 0% probability to a cut, 32% to no change and 68% to a hike, with 2.50% the single most likely outcome at 68%.
Trading Economics Implied Policy Rates are measures of how financial markets price future central bank policy decisions. Trading Economics derives market-implied forward curves by combining interest rate futures prices, tied to representative short-term benchmark rates, with scheduled decision dates from its economic calendar. The difference between the implied rate following a policy meeting and the prevailing policy rate reflects the expected basis-point move. Based on this expected change, the market-implied probability of rate adjustments are derived for each upcoming central bank meetings.