Canada Private Sector Nears Stabilization

The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI rose to 49.9 in April 2026 from 47.6 in March, nearing the neutral 50 threshold and signaling a stabilization in business activity. A solid increase in manufacturing output helped offset a slight contraction in the services sector. New orders improved, and employment expanded for the first time in nearly a year, pointing to a modest recovery in demand. However, cost pressures remained elevated, with input price inflation largely unchanged, while output prices rose at the fastest pace since July 2023, indicating firms are passing higher costs on to customers.

The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI recorded 47.6 in March 2026, up from 47.1 in February and remaining below the 50.0 no-change mark for a fifth straight month. Manufacturing fell to 50.0 from 51.0 in March, while services rose to 47.2 from 46.5, with the latter being the main driver of the downturn. New business volumes declined for a sixteenth consecutive month and continued to weigh on output. Backlogs of work decreased markedly again as firms were easily able to keep on top of workloads. Employment contracted for a seventh successive month, albeit modestly, as firms pared staff or chose not to replace leavers. Business confidence edged up since February and reached its highest level since last September. On the price front input cost inflation accelerated to its highest level since last June, while output charge inflation rose solidly and reached its greatest degree since July 2025.

The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI recorded 47.1 in February 2026, up from 46.4 in January and remaining below the 50.0 no-change mark for a fourth straight month. Manufacturing improved to 51 from 50.4 in February, while services rose to 46.5 from 45.8, with the latter the main driver of the downturn. New business volumes declined for a fifteenth consecutive month and continued to weigh on output. Backlogs of work decreased markedly again as firms were easily able to keep on top of workloads. Employment contracted for a sixth successive month, albeit modestly, as firms pared staff or chose not to replace leavers. Business confidence edged up since January and reached its highest level since last October. On the price front input cost inflation softened to its lowest level since September 2024, while output charge inflation rose solidly and reached its greatest degree since July 2025.