Canada Posts Surprise Trade Surplus

Canada posted a trade surplus of C$1.8 billion in March 2026 compared to the downwardly revised C$5.1 billion in February and better than the expected C$2.9 billion shortfall. This marked the first trade surplus since September 2025 and the largest since January that year. Exports climbed 8.5% to an over one-year high of C$72.8 billion, boosted by a 24% surge in shipments of metal and non-metallic mineral products and a 15.6% rise in energy products, with crude oil exports jumping 18.9% on higher prices. Conversely, imports fell 1.6% to C$71 billion, following February's record high, with declines observed in 8 of the 11 product sections. Purchases of aircraft and transport equipment dropped 12.8%, while consumer goods fell 3.9%, led by pharmaceuticals (-9.3%), clothing and footwear (-4.2%), food products (-4.1%), and meat (-9.3%). The trade surplus with the United States widened to $7.1 billion in March, its highest level since September 2025, from $2.9 billion observed in February.

Canada’s trade deficit rose to C$5.7 billion in February 2026 from the upwardly revised C$4.2 billion in January and worse than the expected C$2.3 billion shortfall. This marked the widest trade gap since August 2025, as total imports surged 8.4% to a record high of C$72.1 billion, led by a 45.6% jump in purchases of metal and non-metallic mineral products, particularly gold in the United States. Imports also increased markedly for energy products (20.1%); metal ores and non-metallic minerals (17.6%); and basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (8.2%). Exports rose 6.4% to C$66.3 billion, the highest since March 2025, mainly on the back of shipments of motor vehicles and parts (24.2%); unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys (14.2%) and fishing and intermediate food products (10.5%). Canada’s trade surplus with the US shrank to C$1.7B, the lowest since May 2020, from C$4.9 billion in January, as imports surged 13.6% and exports rose 4.4%.

Canada’s trade deficit widened to C$3.6 billion in January 2026 from a C$1.3 billion deficit in December and way more than the expected C$0.9 deficit. Exports fell 4.7% m/m to C$62.48 billion, with motor vehicle and parts exports down 21.2% as production stoppages affected passenger car shipments, while aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts decreased 16.0%. These declines were partly offset by a 4.1% increase in energy product exports, driven by natural gas. Exports to the US decreased 3.8%. Imports decreased 1.1% to C$66.13 billion, led by lower imports of motor vehicles and parts (-4.5%) and electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-3.6%), even as imports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts rose 3.4%. As a result, Canada’s surplus with the US narrowed to C$5.4 billion, while the deficit with countries other than the US widened to C$9.0 billion.