Canada Trade Balance Swings to Deficit in October

Canada’s trade deficit widened to C$2.20 billion in November 2025 from a C$0.395 billion deficit in October and way more than the expected deficit of C$0.7 billion. Exports fell 2.8% m/m to C$63.94 billion, with metal and non-metallic mineral exports plunging 24.4% as unwrought gold and related shipments reversed after strong gains, while motor vehicles and parts dropped 11.6%. These moves were partly offset by an 8.5% rise in energy exports, with crude oil and crude bitumen up 7.6% on higher volumes. Exports to the US fell 1.8%. Imports edged down 0.1% to C$66.14 billion, led lower by motor vehicles and parts (-4.5%) and energy imports (-10.6%; crude oil -30.2%), even as consumer-goods imports (including pharmaceuticals and clothing) increased. As a result, Canada’s surplus with the US widened to C$6.6 billion, while the deficit with non-US partners widened to C$8.8 billion.

Canada’s trade swung to a deficit of C$0.58 billion in October 2025 from a C$0.24 billion surplus in September, although better than the expected 1.4 billion deficit. Exports rose 2.1% m/m to C$65.61 billion, but gains were narrowly driven by metals. Metal and non-metallic mineral exports surged 27.3%, led by a 47.4% jump in unwrought gold on strong shipments to the UK, while motor vehicles and parts increased 4.1%. These advances were partly offset by an 8.4% drop in energy exports, with crude oil and bitumen down 13.5% on weaker volumes and prices. Exports to the US fell 3.4%. Imports rebounded 3.4% to C$66.19 billion, led by electronic and electrical equipment at +10.2% and a 9.5% rise in metal and mineral imports driven by higher inflows of unwrought gold and platinum group metals. As a result, Canada’s surplus with the US narrowed from C$8.4 billion to C$4.8 billion, while the deficit with non-US partners narrowed to C$5.4 billion, the smallest since January 2021.

Canada’s trade swung to a surplus of C$0.15 billion in September 2025 from a C$6.3 billion deficit the month before and well above expectations for a C$4.5 billion deficit, marking the second surplus of the year. Exports rose 6.3% month on month to C$64.231 billion, the largest monthly increase since February 2024 and reversing August’s weakness as nine of 11 product sections posted gains. Metal and non-metallic mineral product exports jumped 22.7% driven by a 30.2% surge in unwrought gold, aircraft and other transportation equipment rose 23.4% and crude oil exports climbed 5.8%. Exports to the US were up 4.6% in September. Meanwhile imports fell 4.1% to C$64.078 billion as metal and non-metallic mineral imports plunged 27.8%, led by a 72.5% drop in unwrought gold after August’s high-value shipments did not repeat. Those flows narrowed deficits with countries other than the US and widened Canada’s surplus with the US from C$6.0 billion in August to C$8.6 billion in September.