Excerpts from the Statement by the Executive Board of the Riksbank:
The overall picture of the economic outlook and inflation prospects remains largely unchanged since the monetary policy meeting in February. Economic activity abroad is continuing to strengthen. However, despite growth being at a high level and unemployment having fallen, inflationary pressures remain moderate, particularly in the euro area.
Conditions in the Swedish economy are strong; the employment rate is high and unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since the financial crisis. Inflation has been close to the target over the past year. In March, CPIF inflation was 2.0 per cent.
One reason why inflation is now 2 per cent is that energy prices have increased rapidly. Underlying inflation, on the other hand, has been unexpectedly low recently, which raises questions regarding the strength of the development in inflation. The weakening of the krona exchange rate in recent months is contributing to higher inflation, but if CPIF inflation is to remain close to the target going forward, it is important that economic activity is strong and has an impact on price developments. It is also important that the krona exchange rate develops in a way compatible with inflation stabilising close to the target.
Monetary policy therefore needs to remain expansionary and the Executive Board has decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at −0.50 per cent. Given the questions regarding underlying inflation, the forecast for the repo rate has been revised down somewhat and indicates that the rate will start to be raised at a slow pace towards the end of the year. The Riksbank’s holdings of government bonds amount to just over SEK 320 billion, expressed as a nominal amount. Until further notice, redemptions and coupon payments will be reinvested in the bond portfolio.
It has taken a long time to bring up inflation and inflation expectations, and there is considerable uncertainty over the development of inflation. Monetary policy thus needs to proceed cautiously. If the conditions for inflation were to change, the Executive Board is prepared to adjust monetary policy. The risks of too low inflation merit particular attention, as at the prevailing interest rate levels this is more difficult to manage than inflation that is too high.
The low interest rates contribute to increasing the risks linked to high and rising household indebtedness. At the same time, the fundamental causes of the high household indebtedness still remain. Achieving long-term sustainable development in the Swedish economy therefore requires measures within housing policy, taxation policy and, where necessary, within macroprudential policy.