Sweden - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sweden including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sweden economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.7 6 5.8 6.2 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 percent
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25 -0.25 0.5 percent
Balance of Trade 2600.00 5100 1200 -3700 1600 -2000 SEK million
Government Debt to GDP 40.60 38 38 38 37 36 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 8.73
8.57 8.75 8.94 9.12 9.91
Stock Market 1593.44
points
1442 1398 1356 1315 1163
Government Bond 10Y 0.63
percent
0.81 0.96 1.14 1.35 2.67
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.30
percent
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.6
GDP 511.00
USD Billion
505 515 525 540 551
GDP Constant Prices 1143039.00
SEK Million
1142125 1163872 1171615 1136848 1232129
Gross National Product 1241985.00
SEK Million
1185551 1173069 1273035 1145369 1338787
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 284313.00
SEK Million
281892 295910 291421 280141 306473
GDP per capita 56319.05
USD
56970 56970 56970 57210 57420
GDP per capita PPP 46441.21
USD
46240 46450 46661 46600 46282
Gdp From Agriculture 12810.00
SEK Million
12895 13070 13130 12871 13808
Gdp From Construction 63901.00
SEK Million
63287 65158 65499 61170 68882
Gdp From Manufacturing 157753.00
SEK Million
156085 158866 161697 154730 170048
Gdp From Mining 4395.00
SEK Million
4441 4464 4505 4273 4738
Gdp From Public Administration 199923.00
SEK Million
200590 204127 204921 200304 215505
Gdp From Services 530690.00
SEK Million
530847 541651 543957 530467 572053
Gdp From Transport 41615.00
SEK Million
41951 42585 42655 41879 44859
Gdp From Utilities 28003.00
SEK Million
28392 28923 28703 27853 30186
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80
percent
6.7 6 5.8 6.2 6.5
Employed Persons 5043.00
Thousand
5029 5019 5015 5013 5012
Unemployed Persons 366.00
Thousand
357 354 353 353 353
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20
percent
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.70
percent
16.56 17.24 16.95 17.16 17.13
Labour Costs 129.90
Index Points
127 128 128 128 128
Job Vacancies 1287.00
Hundred
897 916 1196 1114 1070
Wages 170.10
SEK/Hour
171 172 173 171 180
Wages in Manufacturing 180.40
SEK/Hour
183 180 182 180 190
Population 10.00
Million
10.32 10.32 10.32 10.17 10.58
Retirement Age Women 61.00
61 61 61 61 61
Retirement Age Men 61.00
61 61 61 61 61
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.60
percent
71.66 70.98 71.18 71.3 71.25
Part Time Employment 1129.40
Thousand
1129 1101 1129 1102 1127
Productivity 106.70
Index Points
107 116 107 116 107
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.16 0.1 0.06 0.1 0.18
Employment Rate 67.70
percent
67.46 67.27 67.19 67.15 67.12
Full Time Employment 3701.70
Thousand
3692 3756 3703 3650 3684
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
-0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.66
Index Points
104 105 106 106 110
Consumer Price Index CPI 327.10
Index Points
326 329 331 332 344
Core Consumer Prices 213.98
Index Points
214 215 217 217 228
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
1.6 1.7 2 2.2 2.6
Producer Prices 124.30
Index Points
121 120 124 126 130
Producer Prices Change 4.90
percent
2.9 1.7 1.9 2 2.5
Export Prices 118.40
Index Points
115 115 115 115 115
Import Prices 117.30
Index Points
115 115 115 115 114
Food Inflation 2.50
percent
2.07 2.51 2.42 2.1 2.18
Inflation Expectations 2.90
percent
2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities 399.04
Index Points
391 397 399 401 415
CPI Transportation 440.12
Index Points
442 438 444 443 462
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.50
percent
-0.5 -0.5 -0.25 -0.25 0.5
Interbank Rate -0.40
percent
-0.47 -0.47 -0.22 -0.22 0.53
Money Supply M0 54744.00
SEK Million
54042 54168 54293 54417 55747
Money Supply M3 3338186.00
SEK Million
3322006 3361545 3400743 3439606 3843962
Banks Balance Sheet 12893824.00
SEK Million
12772018 12937116 12816086 12945703 12825970
Foreign Exchange Reserves 522161.00
SEK Million
505850 504408 502951 501504 486100
Loans to Private Sector 1365650.00
SEK Million
1365963 1373866 1380433 1385783 1406713
Deposit Interest Rate -1.25
percent
-1.25 -1.25 -1 -1 -0.25
Private Debt to GDP 263.47
percent
264 266 267 267 268
Money Supply M1 2772965.00
SEK Million
2786167 2835248 2882858 2929673 3420678
Money Supply M2 3220531.00
SEK Million
3236231 3284643 3331607 3377940 3873487
Lending Rate 0.25
percent
0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 1.25
Loan Growth 6.90
percent
6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29
Central Bank Balance Sheet 897370.00
SEK Million
853405 869528 851947 869449 859495
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2600.00
SEK million
5100 1200 -3700 1600 -2000
Exports 122100.00
SEK million
119100 116200 112500 127000 122500
Imports 119500.00
SEK million
114000 115000 116200 125400 124500
Current Account 33.50
SEK Billion
33.67 45.29 33.85 45.12 34.79
Current Account to GDP 3.20
percent
4.1 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.4
External Debt 110839.00
SEK Million
120072 125884 131713 137316 184482
Terms of Trade 100.94
Index Points
100 99.97 100 100 101
Foreign Direct Investment 13720.00
SEK Million
30330 41498 27389 35954 34809
Capital Flows 116.30
SEK Billion
116 -60.69 116 -60.37 114
Remittances 16.20
SEK Billion
17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2
Gold Reserves 125.70
Tonnes
126 126 126 126 126
Terrorism Index 3.76
3.65 3.65 3.65 3.64 3.62
Weapons Sales 83.00
USD Million
242 248 253 244 314
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.60
percent
38 38 38 37 36
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1
Government Budget Value 6373.00
SEK Million
-78 4112 6453 6347 6479
Government Spending 290394.00
SEK Million
293030 297602 297654 294258 313028
Government Spending to GDP 49.10
percent
48.5 48.5 48.5 48 47.5
Government Revenues 84670.00
SEK Million
79465 83288 84620 84950 85072
Government Debt 1228655.00
SEK Million
1299872 1271615 1281099 1269384 1283181
Fiscal Expenditure 78297.00
SEK Million
79542 79176 78192 78603 78592
Military Expenditure 5470.40
USD Million
5360 5363 5366 5378 5427
Asylum Applications 1785.00
persons
4406 4431 4241 4195 4222
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 106.60
Index Points
108 109 109 108 106
Manufacturing PMI 54.50
55.6 55.63 55.61 55.59 55.58
Services Pmi 60.10
Index Points
58.74 58.21 53.2 57.46 52.2
Industrial Production 6.80
percent
6.92 5.21 2.2 5.16 1.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.50
percent
0.6 2.5 0.8 0.6 0.7
Manufacturing Production 7.10
percent
7.7 4.56 5.76 4.74 5.28
Capacity Utilization 90.60
percent
90.4 90.5 90.5 88.29 90.9
New Orders 119.90
Index Points
111 102 109 105 106
Changes in Inventories -4122.00
SEK Million
-3122 15718 -2216 14855 1689
Bankruptcies 725.00
Companies
623 620 620 619 620
Car Registrations 35601.00
27046 26334 25737 25220 23502
Internet Speed 22543.09
KBps
23454 24619 25812 25658 29625
IP Addresses 5500163.00
IP
5492629 5497979 5499902 5501915 5507452
Mining Production 1.80
percent
3.6 5.16 3.17 3.84 3.51
Steel Production 414.99
Thousand Tonnes
385 383 383 383 383
Competitiveness Index 5.52
Points
5.52 5.52 5.52 5.52 5.52
Competitiveness Rank 7.00
6 6 6 5 4
Business Inventories 8183.79
SEK Million
-1262 -1445 1127 5443 1816
Corruption Index 84.00
Points
84 84 84 84 84
Corruption Rank 6.00
6 6 6 6 6
Ease of Doing Business 10.00
10 10 10 10 10
Electricity Production 15232.00
Gigawatt-hour
10577 12186 15583 13684 14395
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.30
Index Points
104 105 103 104 103
Retail Sales MoM 1.20
percent
-0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 2.90
percent
2.6 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.2
Consumer Spending 503387.00
SEK Million
505948 513827 515972 505942 542622
Disposable Personal Income 511851.00
SEK Million
635780 635780 635780 635780 635780
Personal Savings 9.60
percent
22.18 22.18 22.18 22.18 22.18
Private Sector Credit 6.70
percent
6.87 6.87 6.87 6.87 6.87
Gasoline Prices 1.73
USD/Liter
1.7 1.61 1.51 1.43 0.99
Household Spending 0.50
percent
0.15 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11
Households Debt To Gdp 87.00
percent of GDP
86.55 86.55 86.55 86.55 86.55
Households Debt To Income 155.94
percent
157 157 157 157 155
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output -1.50
percent
2.79 2.83 2.85 2.86 2.87
Housing Index 229.88
Index points
230 230 230 230 230
Housing Starts 12.67
Thousand
14.19 13.11 14.15 13.11 14.11
Home Ownership Rate 65.20
percent
64.97 64.76 64.56 64.44 63.35
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 61.85
percent
61.85 61.85 61.85 62 62
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 38.42
percent
38.42 38.42 38.42 38 38
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.42
percent
31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature -3.07
celsius
6.69 12.22 -2.4 -6.9 2.45
Precipitation 65.16
mm
44.81 72.1 53.13 37.34 52.98