Sweden | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sweden including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sweden economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.30 6.6 7.1 7 5.9 5.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.70 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 2600.00 -621 -404 202 661 2914 SEK million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.60 41.1 40.5 40.5 40.5 39.6 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 8.30 8.08 8 7.92 7.83 6.94 [+]
Stock Market 1612.57 1630 1610 1600 1580 1400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.72 0.7 0.7 0.71 0.72 0.79 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 511.00 506 516 507 499 551 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1128709.00 1140679 1146311 1150069 1153252 1160447 SEK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1174500.00 1165115 1121210 1166931 1124163 1154270 SEK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 285087.00 292161 294807 296129 298097 298194 SEK Million [+]
GDP per capita 56319.05 56740 56970 56970 56970 57420 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 46441.21 46661 46688 46715 46742 46600 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 12594.00 12487 12447 12393 12345 11968 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 64286.00 65942 66644 66824 66994 64295 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 153015.00 153660 153656 153481 153220 149828 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Mining 4344.00 4442 4477 4514 4546 4723 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 197651.00 198250 198394 198450 198465 198062 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Services 524830.00 529614 531784 533270 534549 537152 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 41242.00 41057 41033 40946 40893 40327 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 27901.00 27639 27537 27509 27448 27022 SEK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.30 6.6 7.1 7 5.9 5.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 5049.80 5051 5047 5044 5041 5029 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 337.00 336 340 343 346 351 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.43 1.44 1.43 1.43 1.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.70 18.25 18.18 18.1 18.03 17.53 percent [+]
Labour Costs 126.50 127 127 127 127 126 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 851.00 657 537 464 420 351 Hundred [+]
Wages 164.60 167 167 167 167 166 SEK/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 175.70 178 178 178 177 177 SEK/Hour [+]
Population 10.00 10 10.32 10.32 10.32 10.58 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.60 70.34 71.15 71.36 71.19 71.19 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 1098.20 1133 1133 1134 1133 1125 Thousand [+]
Productivity 106.40 107 102 106 112 108 Index Points [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0.54 0.39 0.37 0.11 0.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 68.10 65.81 65.7 65.88 65.98 65.96 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 3810.90 3620 3609 3639 3646 3616 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.40 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 323.38 324 324 324 324 323 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 211.43 212 212 212 212 211 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 2.29 2.33 2.35 2.38 2.54 percent [+]
Producer Prices 117.80 127 129 129 117 149 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.30 3.6 4.2 4.2 4 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 112.20 112 112 111 111 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 111.30 111 111 110 110 109 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.50 1.8 1.93 2.06 2.18 2.99 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.80 2.76 2.77 2.78 2.79 2.82 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 390.15 393 393 393 393 392 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 430.01 430 430 430 430 428 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.63 -0.53 -0.52 -0.46 -0.38 0.52 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 54112.00 54847 54976 55103 55228 56337 SEK Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3254401.00 3263621 3265100 3263740 3261323 3235121 SEK Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 12971571.00 13090949 13067542 13044363 13021294 12816974 SEK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 500093.00 499703 498487 497250 496019 485174 SEK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1326449.00 1319708 1315591 1312866 1310775 1295594 SEK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -1.25 -1.2 -1.09 -0.96 -0.82 0.27 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.29 0.41 0.56 0.72 1.93 percent [+]
Loan Growth 7.10 7.13 7.12 7.1 7.08 6.9 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 263.47 257 256 255 253 244 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 2674602.00 2687689 2690554 2690342 2688783 2666308 SEK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 3119085.00 3116472 3118380 3117678 3115893 3093591 SEK Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 850889.00 828296 822199 813768 805894 739475 SEK Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 2600.00 -621 -404 202 661 2914 SEK million [+]
Exports 111000.00 103894 103165 103081 102710 98837 SEK million [+]
Imports 108400.00 104859 104590 104284 103838 100130 SEK million [+]
Current Account 39.50 49.44 44.68 44.29 47.74 45.14 SEK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.70 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.4 percent [+]
External Debt 128841.00 130483 132613 134837 137020 154156 SEK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.81 101 101 101 101 102 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 37914.00 24126 35076 28083 37757 29196 SEK Million [+]
Capital Flows -111.80 -2.86 -0.34 3.09 5.52 9.68 SEK Billion [+]
Remittances 15.40 14.54 14.68 14.56 14.29 14.09 SEK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 125.72 126 126 127 127 130 Tonnes [+]
Weapons Sales 249.00 223 232 241 250 294 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.76 3.33 3.14 2.95 2.76 2.81 [+]
Crude Oil Production 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.60 41.1 40.5 40.5 40.5 39.6 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.90 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 8354.00 -62000 -8700 -12200 9700 -44000 SEK Million [+]
Government Spending 287675.00 287496 287573 287468 287387 286498 SEK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.00 50.02 49.96 49.9 49.85 50.33 percent [+]
Government Revenues 74791.00 68945 66266 63612 61417 54248 SEK Million [+]
Government Debt 1295685.00 1236669 1235768 1234968 1234173 1227136 SEK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 66437.00 60698 58964 57773 56908 55082 SEK Million [+]
Military Expenditure 5344.30 5427 5439 5450 5462 5538 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2550.00 4167 4296 4153 4100 4109 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 109.90 108 106 104 102 99.73 [+]
Services Pmi 61.40 53.6 59.58 58.89 58.34 52.2 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 59.30 60.72 58.55 57.05 56.08 55.16 [+]
Industrial Production 4.50 2.5 4.2 3.52 2.98 1.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.20 0.4 0.06 0.03 0.09 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.40 5.64 4.94 4.37 3.91 2.24 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 90.90 90.2 90.4 90.4 90.5 90.9 percent [+]
New Orders 112.00 99.27 99.48 99.79 100 100 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories -160.00 -9261 16459 -2345 11934 -3874 SEK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 611.00 485 515 525 538 618 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 33226.00 28871 27637 26559 25663 23077 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 22543.09 23387 22085 22731 23042 20547 KBps [+]
Mining Production 9.60 5.39 4.56 4.2 4.02 3.83 percent [+]
Steel Production 421.91 389 397 398 399 399 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.52 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 6 6 6 6 2 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 10.00 12 11 11 11 11 [+]
Electricity Production 10815.00 13191 13214 12044 11909 12451 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 88.00 90 90 90 90 91 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 105.30 105 104 104 103 97.92 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.29 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.60 3.8 3.58 3.46 3.35 2.83 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 497960.00 503005 504948 506527 507947 512194 SEK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 635780.00 495587 495857 626206 514678 506614 SEK million [+]
Personal Savings 30.29 10.26 17.24 29.56 16.56 9.91 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 7.60 6.85 6.88 6.9 6.92 7.13 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.57 1.61 1.61 1.6 1.6 1.57 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending 0.60 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 86.00 86.5 86.56 86.57 86.55 85.44 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 156.87 160 160 160 161 162 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 14.70 8.57 6.02 4.67 3.96 3.17 percent [+]
Housing Index 232.49 238 237 237 237 234 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 12.27 14.18 14.63 14.08 14.14 12.77 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 65.20 64.83 64.89 64.94 64.99 66.96 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00 23 23 23 23 24 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 57.10 57 57 57 56 56 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 38.42 38.49 38.51 38.52 38.54 38.7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.42 31.49 31.51 31.52 31.54 31.7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]