Sweden | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sweden including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sweden economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.00 6.4 6.3 7.1 7 5.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -500.00 673 177 111 104 103 SEK million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.60 41.1 41.1 40.5 40.5 39.6 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 7.95 7.84 7.76 7.68 7.6 6.73 [+]
Stock Market 1584.43 1610 1590 1570 1560 1380 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.64 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.75 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 511.00 522 506 526 521 551 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1128709.00 1137149 1145044 1153392 1157146 1167305 SEK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1174500.00 1131545 1178842 1131589 1178799 1178583 SEK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 285087.00 287316 292328 296795 299081 311263 SEK Million [+]
GDP per capita 56319.05 56525 56746 56778 56811 56924 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 46441.21 46542 46764 46854 46943 48099 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 12594.00 12211 12286 12237 12266 12257 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 64286.00 66254 67651 68538 68877 68740 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 153015.00 166197 167262 168065 167684 165515 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Mining 4344.00 4383 4442 4477 4514 4723 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 197651.00 194025 193890 194058 193878 193966 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Services 524830.00 519479 524361 529144 533237 555869 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 41242.00 41096 41057 41033 40946 40327 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 27901.00 29157 29257 29164 29029 29084 SEK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.00 6.4 6.3 7.1 7 5.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 5034.70 5040 5054 5067 5078 5126 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 326.00 389 381 380 381 381 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.40 1.09 1.09 1.08 1.06 1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.70 18.35 18.62 18.73 18.79 18.94 percent [+]
Labour Costs 126.80 127 127 127 126 126 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 782.00 782 1084 1016 877 957 Hundred [+]
Wages 168.80 168 168 168 168 168 SEK/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 180.10 179 179 179 179 178 SEK/Hour [+]
Population 10.00 10 10 10.32 10.32 10.58 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Change 0.60 1.21 0.78 0.63 0.59 0.38 percent [+]
Employment Rate 69.30 66.64 66.41 66.3 66.25 66.2 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 3597.40 3781 3681 3661 3754 3754 Thousand [+]
Productivity 106.40 115 108 103 108 110 Index Points [+]
Wages Low Skilled 20600.00 21533 21533 21533 21533 21533 SEK/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 33900.00 33932 33512 34386 35501 35285 SEK/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 1143.60 1118 1142 1141 1144 1141 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 74.70 70.84 71.05 71.25 71.17 71.16 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 12691.40 13157 13155 13155 13155 13155 SEK/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 11046.10 11409 11386 11394 11392 11392 SEK/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 2.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.17 0.22 0.27 0.28 0.28 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.37 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 323.18 323 323 323 323 323 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 211.23 211 211 211 211 211 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.34 2.34 2.37 2.39 2.55 percent [+]
Producer Prices 118.30 125 127 129 129 149 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.70 7.6 5.1 4.2 4.2 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 113.80 113 113 113 113 113 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.40 112 112 112 112 112 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.50 2.59 2.68 2.77 2.85 3.47 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 389.39 390 391 391 391 390 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 432.33 433 432 432 432 431 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.10 2.7 2.7 2.69 2.69 2.69 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.41 -0.4 -0.34 -0.24 -0.14 0.89 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 54910.00 54755 55441 54770 55439 55438 SEK Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3196295.00 3262883 3312029 3362163 3411935 3877305 SEK Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 13021264.00 13349876 13148901 13354600 13153157 13163581 SEK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 509436.00 513985 510804 509780 508567 496844 SEK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1348541.00 1348742 1354526 1359335 1363285 1378566 SEK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -1.25 -1.24 -1.21 -1.18 -1.15 -1.08 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 843540.00 842256 826252 820169 811695 737046 SEK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 263.47 266 267 267 266 265 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 2657120.00 2701662 2756570 2813404 2870690 3429900 SEK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 3089508.00 3128600 3175769 3224727 3274277 3763501 SEK Million [+]
Loan Growth 7.00 7.05 7.04 7.02 7 6.94 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -500.00 673 177 111 104 103 SEK million [+]
Exports 94000.00 108324 108183 107760 108356 108915 SEK million [+]
Imports 94500.00 107387 106505 107521 107999 108349 SEK million [+]
Current Account 39.50 57.51 52.79 48.15 48.07 50.42 SEK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.70 4.6 4.6 4.1 4.1 3.4 percent [+]
External Debt 131198.00 132080 133749 135897 138056 156692 SEK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.25 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 37914.00 49974 24032 35069 28079 28774 SEK Million [+]
Capital Flows -111.80 -17.24 5.65 9.03 5.39 6.79 SEK Billion [+]
Remittances 15.40 13.91 14.9 14.98 14.71 14.76 SEK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 125.72 126 126 126 126 126 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.98 3.41 3.62 3.6 3.58 3.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 249.00 295 283 296 309 395 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.60 41.1 41.1 40.5 40.5 39.6 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.90 1.06 -0.5 1.05 1.02 0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -10093.00 9500 -62000 -8700 -12200 -44000 SEK Million [+]
Government Spending 287675.00 284722 284737 284807 284872 285154 SEK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.00 49.99 49.89 49.74 49.58 48.53 percent [+]
Government Revenues 81547.00 68245 67917 65372 62876 54102 SEK Million [+]
Government Debt 1241906.00 1238676 1235060 1234154 1233352 1225516 SEK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 91640.00 69572 66202 62963 60490 55138 SEK Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1980.00 5415 5463 5070 4991 5051 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 5344.30 5355 5351 5340 5329 5206 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 109.20 111 112 112 112 113 [+]
Services Pmi 55.40 56.15 53.6 56.01 55.96 52.2 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.70 55.67 53.07 52.85 53.43 54.91 [+]
Industrial Production 5.30 5.73 2.5 3.87 3.26 1.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.90 0.77 0.4 0.09 0.08 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.40 6.15 5.23 4.6 4.09 2.18 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 90.70 90.2 90.2 90.4 90.4 90.9 percent [+]
New Orders 84.30 102 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories -160.00 13780 -7437 18109 2297 -275 SEK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 363.00 620 640 634 636 636 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 31373.00 32880 28979 27739 26638 23063 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.53 5.5 5.5 5.54 5.55 5.51 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 6.00 7 7 6 6 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 9.00 10 11 10 9 6 [+]
Electricity Production 11264.00 11524 13391 13844 12490 12938 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 88.00 89 89 89 89 89 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 [+]
Steel Production 342.60 383 383 382 382 382 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 5.60 5.76 4.72 4.24 4.02 3.79 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.30 100 99.67 99.45 99.36 99.32 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.90 0.3 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 3.16 3.08 3.07 3.06 3.06 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 497960.00 500380 502863 505540 506984 515897 SEK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 635780.00 504988 505165 505135 505140 505140 SEK million [+]
Personal Savings 17.15 15.87 10.74 17.39 29.48 10.79 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 6.80 6.28 6.09 6 5.94 5.88 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.65 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending 0.30 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 85.70 86.25 86.53 86.57 86.82 87.49 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 156.87 160 161 162 163 171 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output 21.20 9.76 9.63 8.75 9.11 9.05 percent [+]
Housing Index 243.37 243 247 250 254 290 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 65.20 64.75 64.54 64.42 64.3 63.44 percent [+]
Housing Starts 14.73 15.94 16.35 17 16.45 16.91 Thousand [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00 22.36 22.36 21.88 21.72 21.79 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 57.10 56.8 56.82 56.77 56.71 56.07 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 38.42 38.49 38.49 38.51 38.52 38.7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.42 31.49 31.49 31.51 31.52 31.7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]