Sweden - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sweden including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sweden economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.10 6 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.00 2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2 percent
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25 -0.25 0.5 percent
Balance of Trade 0.00 1200 -3700 1600 6000 -2000 SEK million
Government Debt to GDP 40.60 38 38 37 37 36 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 8.78
9.23 9.3 9.37 9.44 9.73
Stock Market 1644.43
points
1653 1635 1618 1600 1532
Government Bond 10Y 0.65
percent
0.55 0.58 0.62 0.66 0.83
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50
percent
2.7 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6
GDP 538.04
USD Billion
555 555 575 575 600
GDP Constant Prices 1171816.00
SEK Million
1179676 1185482 1189668 1199940 1246712
Gross National Product 1215567.00
SEK Million
1161924 1263464 1195419 1244741 1328722
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 294518.00
SEK Million
300410 296152 302846 301586 311448
GDP per capita 56935.19
USD
56970 56970 57210 57210 58000
GDP per capita PPP 46949.28
USD
47000 47000 48000 48000 49000
Gdp From Agriculture 12069.00
SEK Million
12483 12451 12341 12359 13094
Gdp From Construction 66546.00
SEK Million
67103 67189 67942 68143 70659
Gdp From Manufacturing 160748.00
SEK Million
159756 162347 163846 164606 170732
Gdp From Mining 5087.00
SEK Million
5279 5299 5288 5209 5573
Gdp From Public Administration 206581.00
SEK Million
212270 212490 210519 211539 223465
Gdp From Services 542879.00
SEK Million
542688 544897 548366 555908 573041
Gdp From Transport 43449.00
SEK Million
44163 44221 44356 44492 46505
Gdp From Utilities 29349.00
SEK Million
30156 29819 30072 30053 31359
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
6 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.5
Employed Persons 5165.00
Thousand
5218 5170 5148 5139 5131
Unemployed Persons 337.00
Thousand
357 353 354 354 354
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20
percent
1.12 1.12 1.11 1.08 1.04
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.50
percent
17.23 17.22 17.25 17.28 17.43
Labour Costs 131.20
Index Points
132 133 134 134 143
Job Vacancies 847.00
Hundred
959 1221 1097 1001 1077
Wages 173.60
SEK/Hour
172 173 171 173 180
Wages in Manufacturing 185.80
SEK/Hour
180 182 180 184 190
Population 10.12
Million
10.12 10.12 10.21 10.21 10.32
Retirement Age Women 61.00
61 61 61 61 61
Retirement Age Men 61.00
61 61 61 61 61
Labor Force Participation Rate 73.70
percent
72.22 70.66 71.1 71.39 71.3
Part Time Employment 1132.30
Thousand
1109 1129 1127 1126 1126
Productivity 105.80
Index Points
117 108 105 109 110
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.44 0.41 0.32 0.33 0.31
Employment Rate 69.20
percent
69.72 68.88 68.49 68.32 68.18
Full Time Employment 3686.80
Thousand
3869 3762 3738 3823 3827
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.22 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.53
Index Points
106 106 107 108 111
Consumer Price Index CPI 329.63
Index Points
330 332 333 337 348
Core Consumer Prices 215.81
Index Points
216 217 218 220 228
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2 2 2.2 2.3 2.6
Producer Prices 128.20
Index Points
123 125 126 130 131
Producer Prices Change 8.40
percent
4.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5
Export Prices 125.10
Index Points
126 127 127 127 128
Import Prices 125.10
Index Points
125 125 125 125 125
Food Inflation 2.20
percent
2.48 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45
Inflation Expectations 3.40
percent
3.6 3 3 2.8 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities 405.96
Index Points
399 401 410 410 419
CPI Transportation 448.60
Index Points
440 447 445 459 467
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.50
percent
-0.5 -0.5 -0.25 -0.25 0.5
Interbank Rate -0.38
percent
-0.38 -0.38 -0.13 -0.13 0.62
Money Supply M0 57762.00
SEK Million
57511 58157 57607 58179 58178
Money Supply M3 3370331.00
SEK Million
3413503 3452243 3494874 3537552 3942148
Banks Balance Sheet 13482514.00
SEK Million
13484591 13377102 13453256 13371211 13376433
Foreign Exchange Reserves 551350.00
SEK Million
550616 547329 547642 547693 547677
Loans to Private Sector 1402260.00
SEK Million
1418951 1433543 1445874 1455873 1493449
Deposit Interest Rate -1.25
percent
-1.25 -1.25 -1 -1 -0.25
Private Debt to GDP 263.47
percent
266 267 267 266 268
Money Supply M1 2826817.00
SEK Million
2881737 2924192 2971728 3020915 3507679
Money Supply M2 3268769.00
SEK Million
3321911 3361896 3407038 3453955 3924195
Lending Rate 0.25
percent
0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 1.25
Loan Growth 6.20
percent
5.98 5.74 5.53 5.34 4.23
Central Bank Balance Sheet 938223.00
SEK Million
932417 938335 937561 937972 937929
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 0.00
SEK million
1200 -3700 1600 6000 -2000
Exports 108200.00
SEK million
116200 112500 127000 124000 122500
Imports 108200.00
SEK million
115000 116200 125400 118000 124500
Current Account 10.00
SEK Billion
32.6 19.83 10.56 10.94 11.24
Current Account to GDP 3.20
percent
4.1 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.4
External Debt 107699.00
SEK Million
107601 107571 107516 107523 107520
Terms of Trade 100.00
Index Points
101 102 102 102 102
Foreign Direct Investment 10303.00
SEK Million
32251 29110 31295 24769 33534
Capital Flows -9.50
SEK Billion
-12.46 -3.7 9.91 5.24 5.54
Remittances 18.00
SEK Billion
15.75 16.52 16.47 17.21 16.61
Gold Reserves 125.70
Tonnes
126 126 126 126 126
Terrorism Index 3.76
3.65 3.65 3.64 3.64 3.62
Weapons Sales 83.00
USD Million
229 225 211 196 208
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.60
percent
38 38 37 37 36
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP
0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.5
Government Budget Value 15727.00
SEK Million
-3907 5994 6766 7198 7361
Government Spending 301742.00
SEK Million
307751 307746 307725 308984 323641
Government Spending to GDP 49.10
percent
48.5 48.5 48 48 47.5
Government Revenues 87607.00
SEK Million
77067 83093 84955 85515 85679
Government Debt 1203309.00
SEK Million
1203247 1204385 1204345 1204368 1204370
Fiscal Expenditure 71880.00
SEK Million
80974 78472 78189 78317 78318
Military Expenditure 5470.40
USD Million
5495 5512 5517 5521 5556
Asylum Applications 1575.00
persons
4231 4087 3946 3930 3955
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 107.10
Index Points
109 109 108 108 106
Manufacturing PMI 52.50
55.5 54.8 54.6 54 54
Services Pmi 57.10
Index Points
58.1 56.5 56.2 56 55.5
Industrial Production 2.30
percent
5.2 4.5 3.6 3.2 2.4
Industrial Production Mom -2.20
percent
2.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7
Manufacturing Production 2.10
percent
5.4 5.6 4.8 5.3 5.4
Capacity Utilization 90.90
percent
90.5 90.5 89.91 89.39 90.9
New Orders 93.30
Index Points
112 106 107 106 107
Changes in Inventories 10173.00
SEK Million
17417 -1785 22978 6323 4806
Bankruptcies 635.00
Companies
645 664 656 659 658
Car Registrations 25765.00
41737 44224 29961 34864 36125
Internet Speed 22543.09
KBps
24619 25812 25658 25625 29625
IP Addresses 5500163.00
IP
5497979 5499902 5501915 5503606 5507452
Mining Production 1.90
percent
2.22 2.95 3.25 3.41 3.61
Steel Production 339.31
Thousand Tonnes
385 387 387 387 387
Competitiveness Index 5.52
Points
5.53 5.53 5.51 5.51 5.51
Competitiveness Rank 7.00
6 6 8 8 8
Business Inventories 2934.07
SEK Million
-236 1974 6760 2374 3386
Corruption Index 84.00
Points
86 85 85 85 85
Corruption Rank 6.00
5 5 5 5 4
Ease of Doing Business 10.00
7 6 6 6 6
Electricity Production 12839.00
Gigawatt-hour
11921 14252 14025 12335 13367
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.60
Index Points
105 103 104 103 103
Retail Sales MoM -1.00
percent
0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.07 0.5
Retail Sales YoY -1.20
percent
2.1 2.6 2.5 0.63 2.2
Consumer Spending 521833.00
SEK Million
524828 527758 529313 534357 555017
Disposable Personal Income 690463.00
SEK Million
527969 528217 528166 528177 528175
Personal Savings 15.16
percent
14.73 9.9 15.65 31.48 9.91
Private Sector Credit 6.20
percent
6.01 5.89 5.79 5.7 5.26
Gasoline Prices 1.74
USD/Liter
1.77 1.67 1.58 1.49 1.18
Household Spending -2.10
percent
0.5 -0.2 1 -0.3 0.3
Households Debt To Gdp 87.70
percent of GDP
88.43 88.71 88.84 89.08 90.07
Households Debt To Income 162.67
percent
165 167 168 169 179
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 2.70
percent
2.28 0.4 1.5 1.48 1.35
Housing Index 227.51
Index points
227 227 227 227 227
Housing Starts 12.82
Thousand units
12.63 13.37 12.48 13.32 13.31
Home Ownership Rate 65.20
percent
64.76 64.56 64.44 64.33 63.35
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 61.85
percent
61.85 61.85 61.75 62 62
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 38.42
percent
38.42 38.42 38 38 38
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.42
percent
31.41 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.41
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -3.07
celsius
12.22 -2.4 -6.9 7.14 2.45
Precipitation 65.16
mm
72.1 53.13 37.34 55.91 52.98