Sweden | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sweden including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sweden economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.20 7.2 6.4 6.3 7.1 5.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -800.00 -844 -827 -822 -821 -820 SEK million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.60 42.14 41.68 41.21 41.42 42.65 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 8.69 9.02 9.11 9.38 9.29 10.72 [+]
Stock Market 1635.77 1570 1550 1510 1520 1270 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.51 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.72 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2.2 2 2.1 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 495.62 520 507 506 499 551 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1088859.00 1096478 1099660 1101169 1102493 1104156 SEK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1189693.00 1189650 1142997 1189606 1143040 1189348 SEK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 263797.00 265793 266093 266863 267040 268333 SEK Million [+]
GDP per capita 55163.60 54839 55259 55679 55728 57165 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 45488.29 45176 45498 45820 45846 46994 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 12777.00 12800 12784 12794 12802 12801 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 58029.00 57870 57512 57297 57058 56811 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 157266.00 156643 156851 156938 157277 157372 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Mining 4043.00 4023 3994 3980 3983 3992 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 191673.00 192558 193097 193203 193533 194123 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Services 496350.00 502716 505202 507537 509415 519748 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 40711.00 40694 40721 40693 40708 40703 SEK Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 27383.00 27547 27521 27475 27461 27456 SEK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.20 7.2 6.4 6.3 7.1 5.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 5006.30 5037 5059 5078 5095 5164 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 386.00 368 368 368 368 368 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.13 1.09 1.09 1.08 1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.80 16.86 16.64 16.46 16.32 15.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 126.50 128 128 129 130 139 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 1161.00 815 821 1082 1007 965 Hundred [+]
Wages 166.30 166 166 166 166 166 SEK/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 175.30 175 175 175 175 175 SEK/Hour [+]
Population 9.85 9.77 9.8 9.83 9.83 10.12 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0.36 0.47 0.38 0.28 0.26 percent [+]
Employment Rate 67.20 66.56 66.25 66.11 66.04 65.98 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 3606.10 3658 3742 3647 3594 3687 Thousand [+]
Productivity 106.10 104 114 107 104 108 Index Points [+]
Wages Low Skilled 20600.00 21533 21533 21533 21533 21533 SEK/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 33900.00 33405 33932 33512 34386 35285 SEK/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 1133.90 1134 1107 1132 1124 1127 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.40 65.76 65.37 64.47 64.8 64.64 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 12691.40 14020 14026 14026 14026 14026 SEK/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 11046.10 11394 11467 11440 11450 11447 SEK/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.01 0.16 0.13 0.13 0.13 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.84 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 321.54 322 323 324 324 334 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 210.02 210 211 212 212 220 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.00 2.05 2.03 2.05 2.05 2.06 percent [+]
Producer Prices 118.50 123 125 127 129 149 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.20 9.1 7.6 5.1 4.2 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 114.00 114 114 114 114 114 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.10 112 112 112 112 112 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.50 1.58 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 385.78 386 387 388 388 398 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 439.11 439 439 439 439 439 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.50 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49 -0.5 -0.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 56051.00 56661 56012 56697 56026 56701 SEK Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3135892.00 3183108 3229380 3275828 3321849 3793240 SEK Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 13186990.00 14458045 15264848 15346369 15654582 15595291 SEK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 526186.00 526332 526890 526788 526784 526788 SEK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1323894.00 1334498 1340426 1345184 1349133 1364804 SEK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -1.25 -1.06 -1.02 -0.98 -0.96 -0.93 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 864011.00 866859 866781 867442 867404 867448 SEK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 269.85 263 264 264 264 262 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 2594610.00 2646087 2701667 2759251 2817229 3436548 SEK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 3031836.00 3076209 3121997 3170085 3219036 3751226 SEK Million [+]
Loan Growth 7.30 7.31 7.31 7.31 7.31 7.32 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -800.00 -844 -827 -822 -821 -820 SEK million [+]
Exports 119200.00 109531 113117 108705 110540 109557 SEK million [+]
Imports 120000.00 111084 113699 110006 111799 111363 SEK million [+]
Current Account 64.30 44.74 60.74 59.08 52.69 55.31 SEK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.00 5.8 4.97 4.83 4.84 4.83 percent [+]
External Debt 131796.00 131361 131072 131014 131011 131008 SEK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.69 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167677.00 107541 123242 138943 132323 100539 SEK million [+]
Capital Flows 19.00 26.4 20.41 18.47 16.66 16.91 SEK Billion [+]
Remittances 83.00 90.65 94.68 92.22 88.58 92.06 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 125.72 126 126 126 126 126 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.98 3.21 3.41 3.62 3.6 3.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 186.00 343 342 341 336 420 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.60 42.14 41.68 41.21 41.42 42.65 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.90 -0.5 1.06 -0.5 1.05 0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -9105.00 -8666 -946 446 927 1080 SEK Million [+]
Government Spending 280180.00 281885 282396 283184 283784 291082 SEK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 50.00 50.08 49.99 49.89 49.74 48.53 percent [+]
Government Revenues 77674.00 75390 78754 79874 80114 80186 SEK Million [+]
Government Debt 1307468.00 1306988 1306968 1306990 1306986 1306987 SEK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 86779.00 78666 77437 76737 76937 77004 SEK Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1305.00 5662 5977 5492 5328 5409 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 6578.40 6495 6513 6532 6538 6615 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 107.70 108 107 107 107 107 [+]
Services Pmi 60.30 54.4 60.49 53.6 60.49 52.2 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 62.50 63.63 63.58 63.6 63.61 63.61 [+]
Industrial Production 3.80 4.1 5.11 2.5 5.17 1.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.9 0.19 0.4 0.1 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.70 4.57 4.75 4.76 4.76 4.76 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 90.00 0.2 0.2 89.92 89.57 88.16 percent [+]
New Orders 107.70 107 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories -9637.00 253 15134 -6330 14421 -748 SEK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 579.00 563 572 569 570 570 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 31841.00 32798 33538 31535 32498 32408 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.53 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.55 5.51 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 6.00 7 7 7 6 6 [+]
Corruption Index 88.00 89 89 89 89 89 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 9.00 10 10 11 10 6 [+]
Electricity Production 14545.00 11510 11932 13633 13308 12876 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Steel Production 424.56 380 383 384 384 384 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 9.20 9.13 9.36 9.38 9.38 9.38 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 105.90 106 106 106 106 106 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.40 0.21 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.90 2.17 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 483458.00 485307 486275 486598 487583 489942 SEK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 492622.00 507930 508483 508387 508404 508401 SEK million [+]
Personal Savings 10.54 29.34 15.66 10.7 16.71 10.96 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 7.17 7.29 7.36 7.4 7.42 7.44 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending -0.40 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 85.30 86.55 86.72 87.09 87.19 88.49 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 156.87 158 160 161 162 171 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 6.40 6.02 8.23 7.78 7.72 7.77 percent [+]
Housing Index 240.04 243 248 252 257 303 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 70.60 69.67 69.86 70.05 69.97 69.29 percent [+]
Housing Starts 16.73 15.48 15.94 16.35 17 16.91 Thousand [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00 22.36 22.36 22.36 21.72 21.79 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 57.10 56.79 56.8 56.82 56.77 56.07 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 38.42 38.49 38.49 38.49 38.51 38.7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.42 31.49 31.49 31.49 31.51 31.7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]