Sweden - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sweden including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sweden economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.80 7.1 7 5.9 6.3 5.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.70 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.6 percent
Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.35 -0.35 -0.25 0.5 percent
Balance of Trade -3000.00 -865 -336 152 530 2610 SEK million
Government Debt to GDP 41.60 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 39.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 8.03
8.18 8.34 8.51 8.68 9.4
Stock Market 1635.47
points
1583 1543 1504 1466 1196
Government Bond 10Y 0.87
percent
0.7 0.71 0.72 0.43 0.79
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent
2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6
GDP 511.00
USD Billion
494 504 514 525 551
GDP Constant Prices 1133653.00
SEK Million
1145514 1149905 1153328 1156146 1161975
Gross National Product 1150415.00
SEK Million
1154544 1179541 1152906 1177222 1171088
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 290343.00
SEK Million
297672 302042 303779 305596 307876
GDP per capita 56319.05
USD
56970 56970 56970 56970 57420
GDP per capita PPP 46441.21
USD
46029 46240 46450 46661 46600
Gdp From Agriculture 12530.00
SEK Million
12431 12376 12321 12272 11912
Gdp From Construction 64107.00
SEK Million
65703 66035 66187 66218 63780
Gdp From Manufacturing 152958.00
SEK Million
153131 152938 152673 152352 149384
Gdp From Mining 4295.00
SEK Million
4396 4442 4478 4513 4689
Gdp From Public Administration 199468.00
SEK Million
200347 200487 200540 200544 200196
Gdp From Services 528163.00
SEK Million
533156 535185 536711 538040 540937
Gdp From Transport 41200.00
SEK Million
41105 41037 40974 40918 40418
Gdp From Utilities 28055.00
SEK Million
27890 27832 27784 27732 27344
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80
percent
7.1 7 5.9 6.3 5.8
Employed Persons 5046.70
Thousand
5052 5050 5048 5047 5036
Unemployed Persons 308.00
Thousand
330 336 340 343 350
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20
percent
1.2 1.2 1.21 1.22 1.27
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.20
percent
17.04 16.96 16.92 16.88 16.57
Labour Costs 128.30
Index Points
128 128 128 128 128
Job Vacancies 1040.00
Hundred
907 712 589 510 365
Wages 168.70
SEK/Hour
168 167 167 167 166
Wages in Manufacturing 179.00
SEK/Hour
178 178 178 178 177
Population 10.00
Million
10.32 10.32 10.32 10.32 10.58
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.60
percent
70.95 71.36 71.24 71.17 71.2
Part Time Employment 1098.20
Thousand
1109 1115 1110 1108 1102
Productivity 115.90
Index Points
102 106 115 108 109
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.07 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.2
Employment Rate 68.10
percent
65.68 65.81 65.98 66.02 65.99
Full Time Employment 3810.90
Thousand
3639 3696 3759 3719 3702
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.01 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.05
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
Consumer Price Index CPI 325.23
Index Points
326 326 326 326 326
Core Consumer Prices 212.72
Index Points
213 213 213 213 213
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
1.98 2.03 2.08 2.12 2.37
Producer Prices 119.90
Index Points
129 129 121 134 149
Producer Prices Change 2.70
percent
4.2 4.2 4 3.6 2.5
Export Prices 114.50
Index Points
115 115 115 115 113
Import Prices 113.60
Index Points
114 113 113 113 112
Food Inflation 2.90
percent
2.97 3.05 3.12 3.18 3.59
Inflation Expectations 2.80
percent
2.77 2.76 2.77 2.77 2.81
CPI Housing Utilities 392.30
Index Points
393 393 393 393 391
CPI Transportation 437.00
Index Points
437 437 437 437 436
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.50
percent
-0.5 -0.35 -0.35 -0.25 0.5
Interbank Rate -0.43
percent
-0.31 -0.13 0 0.13 1.31
Money Supply M0 55253.00
SEK Million
55168 55293 55421 55548 56547
Money Supply M3 3277472.00
SEK Million
3292631 3293699 3292029 3289472 3266255
Banks Balance Sheet 13066852.00
SEK Million
13072198 13058082 13037186 13014941 12836749
Foreign Exchange Reserves 507936.00
SEK Million
506007 504886 503680 502486 493107
Loans to Private Sector 1331979.00
SEK Million
1324538 1323009 1321361 1319704 1306716
Deposit Interest Rate -1.25
percent
-1.09 -0.96 -0.82 -0.68 0.27
Lending Rate 0.25
percent
0.41 0.56 0.72 0.88 1.93
Loan Growth 7.10
percent
7.24 7.35 7.46 7.57 8.19
Private Debt to GDP 263.47
percent
262 261 259 257 244
Money Supply M1 2695871.00
SEK Million
2718705 2723060 2723623 2722475 2703300
Money Supply M2 3141177.00
SEK Million
3171506 3177003 3178087 3177180 3158216
Central Bank Balance Sheet 869427.00
SEK Million
863375 855292 847999 840744 785857
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -3000.00
SEK million
-865 -336 152 530 2610
Exports 118000.00
SEK million
115068 114439 113873 113401 109804
Imports 121000.00
SEK million
117027 116160 115754 115346 112059
Current Account 50.70
SEK Billion
43.29 41.22 46.54 45.25 43.42
Current Account to GDP 4.70
percent
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.4
External Debt 125527.00
SEK Million
126872 129086 131377 133625 156249
Terms of Trade 100.79
Index Points
101 101 101 101 102
Foreign Direct Investment 52955.00
SEK Million
33455 25982 38551 26621 28655
Capital Flows -59.10
SEK Billion
7.91 7.7 16.99 7.7 10.92
Remittances 15.10
SEK Billion
16.26 17.3 15.93 16.11 15.95
Gold Reserves 125.72
Tonnes
126 126 126 127 130
Weapons Sales 249.00
USD Million
258 246 235 223 294
Terrorism Index 3.76
3.33 3.19 3.04 2.89 2.99
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.60
percent
40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 39.6
Government Budget 0.90
percent of GDP
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1
Government Budget Value 16993.00
SEK Million
-8700 -12200 9700 -56000 -44000
Government Spending 289767.00
SEK Million
290182 290406 290403 290446 289890
Government Spending to GDP 50.00
percent
50.29 50.2 50.11 50.02 50.33
Government Revenues 92879.00
SEK Million
74251 70285 66826 64041 55150
Government Debt 1327927.00
SEK Million
1331864 1331099 1330095 1329082 1317155
Fiscal Expenditure 75886.00
SEK Million
63876 61267 59312 57970 55253
Military Expenditure 5344.30
USD Million
5430 5429 5428 5427 5538
Asylum Applications 1925.00
persons
3876 4200 4123 4053 4048
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 109.60
Index Points
107 105 103 102 99.71
Services Pmi 64.60
Index Points
62.22 61.09 60.17 53.2 52.2
Manufacturing PMI 60.40
58.65 57.19 56.16 55.57 55.19
Industrial Production 6.50
percent
4.83 4.04 3.4 2.2 1.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.90
percent
0.12 0.1 0.13 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production 6.30
percent
4.82 4.3 3.84 3.48 2.21
Capacity Utilization 90.90
percent
90.4 90.4 90.5 90.5 90.9
New Orders 110.20
Index Points
104 102 102 101 101
Changes in Inventories 14211.00
SEK Million
15748 -1922 11992 -7000 -3573
Bankruptcies 520.00
Companies
556 560 571 580 651
Car Registrations 35357.00
Cars
30962 29297 27894 26745 23387
Internet Speed 22543.09
KBps
22085 22731 23042 22128 20547
IP Addresses 5500163.00
IP
5441480 5441192 5420798 5403067 5309256
Mining Production 5.10
percent
4.15 4.09 3.95 3.89 3.83
Steel Production 417.08
Thousand Tonnes
401 399 399 399 399
Competitiveness Index 5.52
Points
5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.53
Competitiveness Rank 7.00
6 6 6 6 2
Ease of Doing Business 10.00
12 11 11 11 11
Electricity Production 14653.00
Gigawatt-hour
13477 10731 11583 13564 12507
Corruption Index 88.00
Points
90 90 90 90 91
Corruption Rank 4.00
4 4 4 4 4
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 108.20
Index Points
108 107 106 105 99.99
Retail Sales MoM 0.90
percent
0.18 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24
Retail Sales YoY 3.80
percent
3.1 3.06 3 2.94 2.68
Consumer Spending 500530.00
SEK Million
505178 506557 507999 509099 512098
Disposable Personal Income 635780.00
SEK million
495857 626206 514678 499013 506614
Personal Savings 14.07
percent
17.35 29.52 14.58 9.93 9.54
Private Sector Credit 7.60
percent
7.64 7.65 7.67 7.69 7.84
Gasoline Prices 1.75
USD/Liter
1.8 1.79 1.78 1.78 1.71
Household Spending 0.50
percent
0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Households Debt To Gdp 85.90
percent of GDP
85.5 85.31 85.13 84.93 83.27
Households Debt To Income 156.87
percent
156 157 159 160 162
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 4.30
percent
3.22 3.04 2.95 2.91 2.88
Housing Index 221.10
Index points
218 217 217 216 211
Housing Starts 12.27
Thousand
13.27 13.39 12.76 12.85 11.88
Home Ownership Rate 65.20
percent
65.45 65.25 65.04 64.83 66.96
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
23 23 23 23 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 57.10
percent
57 57 57 57 56
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 38.42
percent
38 38 38 38 39
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.42
percent
31.49 31.49 31.49 31.49 31.7
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature -3.07
celsius
-6.89 6.69 12.22 -2.4 2.45
Precipitation 65.16
mm
37.26 44.81 72.1 53.13 52.98