France Manufacturing PMI Surprisingly Above 50

The S&P Global France Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.2 in March 2026 from 50.1 in February, staying just above the 50 no-change threshold and beating forecasts of a contraction to 49.5, according to preliminary estimates. Despite this, output fell, marking the first decline of the year, while new orders weakened further. This comes as overall demand contracted at the sharpest pace since July 2025, reflecting subdued domestic conditions and a notable drop in exports amid geopolitical uncertainty. Employment also edged lower as firms remained cautious in hiring. Supply-side pressures intensified, with delivery times lengthening to their greatest extent in over three years due to disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. On price, input cost inflation accelerated to its highest level since November 2023, driven by rising energy and raw material prices, while output prices increased at a faster pace. Lastly, business confidence weakened.

France’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in February 2026 from January’s 51.2, revising higher from initial estimates of 49.9, signaling broad stagnation in the sector. Factory output rose at a slightly softer pace than in January, while new orders decreased marginally, weighed down by weaker domestic and export demand. Stocks of finished goods rose for the first time since last July, reflecting the combination of rising output and softer new orders, whereas pre-production inventories remained broadly stable as manufacturers maintained leaner purchasing. Factory employment fell for the first time in three months, with permanent staff reductions reported. On the cost side, input prices increased at the fastest rate in six months, prompting firms to lift output prices at their steepest rate in a year-and-a-half. Despite the slowdown in orders, manufacturers remained optimistic for growth over the next 12 months, supported by healthy sales pipelines and positive demand forecasts.

France’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 in February 2026 from 51.2 in January, missing expectations of 51 and falling below the 50 no-change threshold to hit a three-month low, according to preliminary estimates. Production continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace, allowing firms to build up stocks of finished goods for the first time since July. New orders declined further, weighed down by weak domestic demand and a sharp contraction in export sales amid competitive pressures. Employment in the sector also fell slightly, reflecting ongoing caution in staffing. On the pricing side, charges for manufactured goods rose at the fastest pace in a year and a half, while input cost inflation eased to a four-month low. Despite weaker demand and softer confidence compared with January, manufacturers remained cautiously optimistic about activity over the year ahead.