France | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.10 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4669.00 -3650 -3300 -3300 -4310 -1650 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 96.00 95.9 96 96 96 92.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 5319.17 5310 5260 5200 5150 4560 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.71 0.79 0.8 0.8 0.81 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2.1 2 1.9 2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 2465.45 2820 2442 2386 2329 2920 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 541190.00 537000 545538 547201 548582 562000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 120686.00 120400 121714 121965 122098 125200 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 42013.29 42200 42400 42400 42400 43100 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38058.87 39000 38130 38126 38122 40100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7975.00 8079 7946 7860 7770 8970 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24850.00 25781 24877 24890 24903 25500 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 55675.00 54088 55812 55837 55836 55000 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 279900.00 276810 282129 282964 283645 283000 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 22841.00 23506 22902 22911 22914 25700 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10951.00 11778 10940 10947 10939 12714 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 8.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27892.70 28000 28120 28120 28406 29100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3475.60 3410 3400 3400 3299 3310 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 65.10 65.4 65.5 65.5 64.98 69 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.1 3.98 3.98 3.97 3.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 22.50 21.1 20.9 20.9 21.28 18.3 percent [+]
Labour Costs 107.30 110 108 109 109 119 Index Points [+]
Productivity 112.82 114 113 113 113 119 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 266.40 200 256 254 253 208 Thousand [+]
Wages 2957.00 3270 3300 3300 3152 3520 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 116.60 116 117 118 119 129 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 0.50 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.31 0.7 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 1480.27 1480 1500 1500 1481 1530 EUR/Month [+]
Population 66.99 66.99 67.28 67.28 67.28 68.06 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.33 65.33 64 64 64 66.33 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.33 65.33 64 64 64 66.33 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 71.90 72.2 72.3 72.4 72.5 72.8 percent [+]
Initial Jobless Claims -64.80 -18 -10 -8 -12 -14 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1700.00 1450 1520 1520 1647 1920 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1030.00 1220 1310 1310 959 1730 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 3160.00 3190 3369 3406 3442 3360 EUR/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 19223.10 16200 19186 19166 19144 16800 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 4812.70 4850 4860 4860 4784 4930 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.19 0.7 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 21337.90 22100 22200 22300 21477 22900 Thousand [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1630.00 1940 1582 1589 1596 2070 EUR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.12 0.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.43 107 101 101 101 120 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.71 107 109 109 102 121 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.17 109 111 111 101 123 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.50 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2.2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 104.50 112 114 114 105 124 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.00 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 114.40 122 114 114 113 130 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.40 105 99.11 99.19 99.26 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.50 1.4 1.9 2 2.1 2.5 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 101.57 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 99.79 106 108 108 102 120 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.05 0.15 0.15 0.16 1.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1183782.00 1130000 1183585 1183364 1183075 1510000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1997405.00 2210000 2013262 2013068 2012714 3020000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2402351.00 2690000 2423405 2424215 2424028 3330000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 8560046.00 9180000 8619289 8613845 8605924 10300000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 151.54 165 150 150 149 175 EUR Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2313206.00 2270000 2314581 2315977 2316422 2720000 EUR Million [+]
Loan Growth 5.44 6.5 6.6 6.8 5.62 5.8 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 228.93 219 230 230 230 209 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 996800.00 941000 993887 989909 985712 1751000 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -4669.00 -3650 -3300 -3300 -4310 -1650 EUR Million [+]
Exports 40295.00 36350 37800 37800 40148 37850 EUR Million [+]
Imports 44964.00 40000 41100 41100 44751 39500 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -3090.00 -922 -1250 -1250 -1664 -550 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4735352.00 5620000 4685261 4675193 4666504 6520000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.90 -1.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 115.09 116 114 113 113 122 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2948.00 2980 2776 2775 2775 4330 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -2859.00 -8006 -895 -649 -696 7500 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 50.00 39 51.22 51.54 51.8 39 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 2435.91 2440 2442 2446 2450 2440 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 5.60 5.6 5.6 5.6 3.88 5.6 [+]
Tourism Revenues 4331.00 1655 2960 4489 3367 3255 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 84500.00 84800 85200 85200 83825 86200 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Production 15.00 17 15.48 15.52 15.57 17 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2226.00 2207 2204 2201 2197 2204 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 96.00 95.9 96 96 96 92.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.40 -3 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -1.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -76.26 -67.5 -27.2 -59.9 -48.17 -61.8 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 130823.00 132800 131791 132216 132607 134000 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 56.20 55.4 54.7 54.7 55.25 53 percent [+]
Government Revenues 238.28 312 68 159 134 258 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 2231.70 2280 2259 2256 2254 2470 EUR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 287.92 380 95 219 168 320 EUR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 55680.60 55894 55925 55957 55988 55363 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 7685.00 8250 6827 6672 6530 2150 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 111.00 103 104 104 105 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.10 51.9 52.4 53.2 53.21 52.8 [+]
Services PMI 57.30 53.4 55.5 55.5 53.2 54 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 57.40 54.2 56.2 56.2 55.07 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.20 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.10 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 84.90 84 85.05 85.14 85.18 87 percent [+]
New Orders -0.20 -10 -8 -8 -7.12 -6 [+]
Bankruptcies 346.00 375 340 343 346 360 Companies [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 31.40 12 14 14 19.65 22 [+]
Car Registrations 173350.00 162700 172400 172400 169422 163500 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 10756.57 10935 10858 10680 10794 10006 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 29887339.00 30209976 29557109 29969297 30276966 29887515 IP [+]
Mining Production -2.00 1.6 1.4 1.4 -1.46 0.9 percent [+]
Steel Production 1322.11 990 1364 1395 1419 1050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Changes In Inventories 11030.00 2358 8609 7686 6745 2224 EUR Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.18 5.2 5.25 5.25 5.2 5.34 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 22.00 21 20 20 20 18 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 31.00 28 27 27 37 25 [+]
Electricity Production 40375.00 54804 49158 44390 46418 56542 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 69.00 70 71 71 69 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 23.00 22 21 21 21 19 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.00 101 105 104 103 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.20 0.7 0.21 0.2 0.2 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.60 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.27 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 299056.00 299900 300445 301108 301589 308000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 351655.00 352000 356493 357798 359040 362000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 14.51 14.9 14.35 14.39 14.42 12.9 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 57.70 55.8 58.46 58.58 58.68 52.4 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 89.47 86.3 90.6 90.73 90.85 83.5 percent [+]
Personal Spending 0.90 0.5 -0.6 -0.6 0.12 0.8 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.84 1.92 2.16 2.3 2.42 2.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1305773.00 1670000 1328768 1336830 1343503 2560000 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.62 1.45 1.44 1.46 1.59 1.65 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 0.70 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 103.72 107 103 103 102 119 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 35300.00 40500 32200 32200 32360 42300 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.10 63.8 63.4 63.4 63.77 63 percent [+]
New Home Sales 30804.00 29700 31600 31600 27809 32500 [+]
Construction Pmi 52.70 51.6 52.5 52.5 48.51 53.4 [+]
Building Permits 48300.00 38600 34600 34600 42098 39400 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 33.30 33.3 33 33.3 34 33.3 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 50.20 50.2 50.2 50.2 51 50.2 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 54.83 54.8 54.8 54.8 54.21 54.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.63 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.58 40.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.20 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.2 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 24.00 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 mm [+]
Temperature 7.00 8.54 10.06 13.42 11.97 10.04 celsius [+]