France - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -5692.00 -3300 -3300 -5008 -2980 -1650 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 96.00 96 96 96 96 92.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.23
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 5524.46
points
5360 5218 5080 4945 3989
Government Bond 10Y 0.86
percent
0.8 0.8 0.81 0.69 0.9
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent
2 1.9 2 1.9 2.2
GDP 2465.45
USD Billion
2382 2421 2459 2860 2920
GDP Constant Prices 541807.00
EUR Million
546405 548165 549629 544000 562000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 120920.10
EUR Million
122172 122496 122689 121900 125200
GDP per capita 42013.29
USD
42400 42400 42400 42400 43100
GDP per capita PPP 38058.87
USD
37870 37958 38046 39400 40100
GDP From Agriculture 8285.00
EUR Million
8208 8056 7907 8096 8970
GDP From Construction 24839.00
EUR Million
24866 24880 24893 25607 25500
GDP From Manufacturing 55817.00
EUR Million
56049 56106 56126 56123 55000
GDP From Services 279678.00
EUR Million
282042 282935 283672 278420 283000
GDP From Transport 23007.00
EUR Million
23133 23165 23186 24091 25700
GDP From Utilities 10894.00
EUR Million
10869 10871 10861 12172 12714
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70
percent
9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.2
Employed Persons 27950.40
Thousand
28120 28120 28190 28200 29100
Unemployed Persons 3454.10
Thousand
3400 3400 3284 3400 3310
Employment Rate 65.10
percent
65.5 65.5 64.67 67 69
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent
4.19 4.23 4.22 4 3.8
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.80
percent
20.9 20.9 21 19.5 18.3
Labour Costs 107.40
Index Points
108 108 108 114 119
Productivity 113.38
Index Points
114 114 114 115 119
Job Vacancies 269.90
Thousand
269 263 259 204 208
Wages 2957.00
EUR/Month
3300 3300 3076 3370 3520
Wages in Manufacturing 116.90
Index Points
117 118 118 122 129
Minimum Wages 1480.27
EUR/Month
1500 1500 1500 1500 1550
Wage Growth 0.30
percent
0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7
Population 66.99
Million
67.28 67.28 67.28 67.28 68.06
Retirement Age Women 65.33
64 64 64 65.66 66.33
Retirement Age Men 65.33
64 64 64 65.66 66.33
Initial Jobless Claims -29.50
Thousand
-10 -8 -12 -15 -14
Labor Force Participation Rate 71.90
percent
72.3 72.4 72.5 72.4 72.8
Manufacturing Payrolls 2767.30
Thousand
2764 2763 2763 2763 2776
Living Wage Family 1700.00
EUR/Month
1520 1520 1655 1520 1920
Living Wage Individual 1030.00
EUR/Month
1310 1310 969 1310 1730
Non Farm Payrolls 25038.00
Thousand
25092 25100 25097 16500 16800
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 19223.40
Thousand
19201 19182 19161 19140 18967
Part Time Employment 4965.70
Thousand
4860 4860 4878 4870 4930
Employment Change 0.20
percent
0.4 0.4 0.12 0.5 0.7
Government Payrolls 5814.60
Thousand
5810 5805 5799 5793 5742
Full Time Employment 21667.30
Thousand
22200 22300 21613 22400 22900
Wages Low Skilled 1630.00
EUR/Month
1575 1582 1589 1990 2070
Wages High Skilled 3160.00
EUR/Month
3333 3369 3406 3240 3360
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20
percent
1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.3 0.3 0.08 0.7 0.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.85
Index Points
102 102 102 110 120
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.17
Index Points
109 109 102 111 121
Core Consumer Prices 101.22
Index Points
111 111 101 115 123
Core Inflation Rate 0.60
percent
0.8 1 1.2 1.5 2.2
Producer Prices 106.20
Index Points
114 114 108 116 124
Producer Prices Change 2.40
percent
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.3
Export Prices 114.40
Index Points
114 114 113 126 130
Import Prices 99.40
Index Points
99.11 99.19 99.26 107 111
Food Inflation 1.50
percent
1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 102.14
Index Points
103 103 103 103 102
CPI Transportation 103.29
Index Points
108 108 102 110 120
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
0.15 0.15 0.01 0.75 1.75
Money Supply M1 1193454.00
EUR Million
1192097 1191691 1191316 1250000 1510000
Money Supply M2 2014066.00
EUR Million
2012334 2012509 2012253 2500000 3020000
Money Supply M3 2422570.00
EUR Million
2424878 2426306 2426342 2890000 3330000
Banks Balance Sheet 8775015.00
EUR Million
8778016 8786628 8782965 9520000 10300000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 146.82
EUR Billion
146 145 144 168 175
Loans to Private Sector 2327526.00
EUR Million
2346218 2351635 2354552 2360000 2720000
Loan Growth 5.39
percent
6.6 6.8 5.56 6 5.8
Private Debt to GDP 228.93
percent
229 229 230 215 209
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1027457.00
EUR Million
1034078 1032433 1028999 988000 1751000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -5692.00
EUR Million
-3300 -3300 -5008 -2980 -1650
Exports 39315.00
EUR Million
37800 37800 39478 36920 37850
Imports 45007.00
EUR Million
41100 41100 44995 39900 39500
Current Account -3260.00
EUR Million
-1250 -1250 -1854 -620 -550
External Debt 4883344.00
EUR Million
4895344 4876948 4872460 6020000 6520000
Current Account to GDP -0.90
percent
-1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9
Terms of Trade 115.09
Index Points
114 113 113 118 122
Foreign Direct Investment 2775.00
EUR Million
2807 2807 2807 1870 4330
Capital Flows -11644.00
EUR Million
-1866 -1664 -1649 10400 7500
Remittances 50.00
EUR Million
50.81 51.21 51.52 39 39
Gold Reserves 2435.94
Tonnes
2437 2439 2442 2440 2440
Terrorism Index 5.96
5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96
Tourism Revenues 2033.00
EUR Million
3099 4559 3274 2571 3331
Tourist Arrivals 84500.00
Thousand
85200 85200 84275 85200 86200
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K
15.09 15.13 15.17 17 17
Weapons Sales 2226.00
USD Million
2144 2165 2186 2207 2204
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 96.00
percent
96 96 96 96 92.5
Government Budget -3.40
percent of GDP
-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -1.9
Government Budget Value -84.75
EUR Billion
-27.2 -59.9 -49.05 -67.1 -61.8
Government Spending 131054.10
EUR Million
132224 132743 133225 133400 134000
Government Spending to GDP 56.20
percent
54.7 54.7 55.79 54.7 53
Government Revenues 280.50
EUR Billion
68 159 147 293 258
Government Debt 2226.10
EUR Billion
2277 2278 2284 2350 2470
Fiscal Expenditure 355.27
EUR Billion
95 219 178 360 320
Military Expenditure 55680.60
USD Million
55616 55709 55801 55894 55363
Asylum Applications 8165.00
persons
7372 7221 7074 6450 2150
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 112.00
Index Points
111 110 109 105 108
Manufacturing PMI 58.10
52.4 53.2 56.85 52.1 52.8
Services PMI 59.30
Index Points
55.5 55.5 54.64 53.4 54
Composite Pmi 59.70
Index Points
56.2 56.2 57.81 53.7 53.1
Industrial Production 2.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.7 2 2.3
Industrial Production Mom -0.50
percent
-0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production 3.00
percent
1.8 1.8 1.9 2 2.2
Capacity Utilization 84.90
percent
85.05 85.14 85.18 85 87
New Orders -0.70
Index Points
-8 -8 -7 -6 -6
Bankruptcies 330.00
Companies
333 336 339 372 360
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 31.80
14 14 23.07 17 22
Car Registrations 184553.00
Cars
172400 172400 172498 162900 163500
Internet Speed 10756.57
KBps
10858 10680 10794 10796 10006
IP Addresses 29887339.00
IP
29557109 29969297 30276966 29957609 29887515
Mining Production 2.80
percent
1.4 1.4 -0.85 1.1 0.9
Steel Production 1199.25
Thousand Tonnes
1325 1374 1398 1000 1050
Changes In Inventories 12328.00
EUR Million
9863 8808 7833 1550 2224
Competitiveness Index 5.18
Points
5.25 5.25 5.2 5.25 5.34
Competitiveness Rank 22.00
20 20 20 20 18
Ease of Doing Business 31.00
27 27 36 27 25
Electricity Production 47044.00
Gigawatt-hour
51185 44876 45028 55439 56542
Corruption Index 69.00
Points
71 71 69 71 73
Corruption Rank 23.00
21 21 22 21 19
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 105.00
Index Points
105 104 103 102 103
Retail Sales MoM 1.20
percent
0.32 0.23 0.21 0.9 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 1.80
percent
3.4 3.2 2.36 3.2 2.7
Consumer Spending 299119.00
EUR Million
300450 301130 301598 302000 308000
Disposable Personal Income 354161.00
EUR Million
357926 359619 361155 356000 362000
Personal Savings 14.51
percent
14.56 14.6 14.62 15.8 12.9
Households Debt To Gdp 58.10
percent of GDP
58.79 58.95 59.09 54.9 52.4
Households Debt To Income 89.47
percent
89.18 89.61 90.05 85.8 83.5
Personal Spending 2.20
percent
-0.6 -0.6 0.12 0.6 0.8
Bank Lending Rate 1.76
percent
1.79 1.89 2.02 2.2 2.8
Consumer Credit 1318556.00
EUR Million
1337623 1349586 1359623 1930000 2560000
Gasoline Prices 1.73
USD/Liter
1.44 1.46 1.71 1.49 1.65
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output -0.50
percent
2.6 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.1
Housing Index 106.36
Index points
107 106 106 111 119
Housing Starts 36200.00
32200 32200 32963 41200 42300
Home Ownership Rate 64.90
percent
63.4 63.4 64.52 63.4 63
New Home Sales 28230.00
31600 31600 28004 30900 32500
Construction Pmi 54.00
52.5 52.5 51 51.7 53.4
Building Permits 39100.00
34600 34600 41792 38800 39400
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 33.30
percent
33 33.3 34 33.3 33.3
Personal Income Tax Rate 50.20
percent
50.2 50.2 51 50.2 50.2
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 54.83
percent
54.8 54.8 55 54.8 54.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.63
percent
40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.20
percent
14.2 14.2 14.29 14.2 14.2
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 24.37
mm
63.19 69.08 65.82 79.96 71.06
Temperature 7.70
celsius
7.7 14.98 18.61 9.92 13.08