France - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.20	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6	percent
Unemployment Rate	9.10	8.8	8.6	8.5	8.1	7.2	percent
Inflation Rate	2.30	2.1	2	1.9	2	2.3	percent
Interest Rate	0.00	0	0	0	0	0.75	percent
Balance of Trade	-3490.00	-4700	-2980	-3200	-4800	-1650	EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP	97.00	96	96	94.6	94.6	92.5	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	1.17	1.16	1.15	1.15	1.14	1.12
Stock Market	5393.74 points	5433	5382	5333	5283	5089
Government Bond 10Y	0.80 percent	0.75	0.79	0.83	0.87	1.06

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.20 percent	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate	1.70 percent	1.9	1.9	2	2	2.2
GDP	2582.50 USD Billion	2660	2660	2890	2890	2920
GDP Constant Prices	569352.00 EUR Million	574568	578339	579813	580739	602883
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	130659.00 EUR Million	130624	131896	132226	133272	137494
GDP per capita	42567.74 USD	42900	42900	43200	43200	43600
GDP per capita PPP	38605.67 USD	39200	39200	39700	39700	40400
GDP From Agriculture	7798.00 EUR Million	7934	8001	7965	7954	8341
GDP From Construction	27952.00 EUR Million	28319	28383	28447	28511	29588
GDP From Manufacturing	57817.00 EUR Million	58676	59424	58972	58973	61946
GDP From Services	289192.00 EUR Million	290272	292818	294300	294976	305245
GDP From Transport	22640.00 EUR Million	22698	22983	23219	23093	23958
GDP From Utilities	12612.00 EUR Million	12866	12868	12997	12864	13414

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	9.10 percent	8.8	8.6	8.5	8.1	7.2
Employed Persons	28070.20 Thousand	28200	28200	28450	28550	29100
Unemployed Persons	3462.00 Thousand	3431	3378	3369	3362	3290
Employment Rate	65.80 percent	65.6	65.7	65.7	65.8	66.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate	3.60 percent	3.6	3.4	3.2	3.2	3
Youth Unemployment Rate	20.40 percent	20.5	20	19.5	19	18.3
Labour Costs	108.10 Index Points	108	109	109	109	112
Productivity	118.60 Index Points	120	120	121	122	127
Job Vacancies	304.00 Thousand	322	225	334	342	241
Wages	2998.00 EUR/Month	3052	3370	3078	3440	3520
Wages in Manufacturing	117.90 Index Points	117	118	118	118	123
Minimum Wages	1498.47 EUR/Month	1498	1498	1525	1525	1550
Wage Growth	0.70 percent	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.6
Population	67.19 Million	67.19	67.19	67.55	67.55	68.06
Retirement Age Women	62.00	62	62	62	62	62
Retirement Age Men	62.00	62	62	62	62	62
Initial Jobless Claims	19.30 Thousand	-48.8	-2.6	17.9	-7.6	-6
Labor Force Participation Rate	72.20 percent	72.5	72.4	72.6	72.5	72.8
Manufacturing Payrolls	2778.20 Thousand	2795	2820	2850	2870	2950
Living Wage Family	1700.00 EUR/Month	1780	1780	1840	1840	1890
Living Wage Individual	1030.00 EUR/Month	1120	1120	1190	1190	1250
Non Farm Payrolls	25179.80 Thousand	0	25220	25280	25340	25640
Nonfarm Payrolls Private	19399.70 Thousand	19440	19480	19530	19580	19790
Part Time Employment	4838.00 Thousand	4870	4870	4880	4880	4930
Employment Change	0.10 percent	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.5
Government Payrolls	5780.20 Thousand	5720	5740	5750	5750	5850
Full Time Employment	21682.40 Thousand	22300	22400	22500	22600	22900
Wages Low Skilled	1630.00 EUR/Month	1690	1690	1750	1750	1830
Wages High Skilled	3160.00 EUR/Month	3240	3240	3270	3270	3360

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.30 percent	2.1	2	1.9	2	2.3
Inflation Rate Mom	0.50 percent	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI	103.78 Index Points	103	104	105	105	109
Harmonised Consumer Prices	104.38 Index Points	106	108	109	106	121
Core Consumer Prices	102.08 Index Points	102	103	104	104	107
Core Inflation Rate	0.90 percent	1.2	1.5	1.7	1.8	2.2
Producer Prices	102.80 Index Points	102	105	105	105	110
Producer Prices Change	3.90 percent	2.7	2.5	2.3	2.3	2.3
Export Prices	116.20 Index Points	115	116	116	117	120
Import Prices	102.20 Index Points	101	101	103	104	107
Food Inflation	2.20 percent	1.9	2.1	2.2	2.4	2.5
CPI Housing Utilities	103.84 Index Points	103	104	105	105	109
CPI Transportation	109.33 Index Points	104	105	106	103	110

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0	0.75
Interbank Rate	-0.32 percent	-0.32	-0.32	-0.32	-0.32	0.43
Money Supply M1	1280087.00 EUR Million	1290000	1320000	1360000	1390000	1590000
Money Supply M2	2135779.00 EUR Million	2110000	2150000	2190000	2220000	2320000
Money Supply M3	2534062.00 EUR Million	2550000	2590000	2620000	2660000	2850000
Banks Balance Sheet	8973717.00 EUR Million	9150000	9250000	9450000	9550000	9780000
Foreign Exchange Reserves	147.26 EUR Billion	147	168	148	148	175
Loans to Private Sector	2409207.00 EUR Million	2460000	2490000	2540000	2580000	2860000
Loan Growth	5.62 percent	4.5	4	4	3.6	3.2
Private Debt to GDP	233.97 percent	225	225	221	221	217
Central Bank Balance Sheet	1061447.00 EUR Million	1190000	1250000	1320000	1370000	1750000

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-3490.00 EUR Million	-4700	-2980	-3200	-4800	-1650
Exports	41348.00 EUR Million	41500	42920	41600	40600	47850
Imports	44838.00 EUR Million	46200	45900	44800	45400	49500
Current Account	542.00 EUR Million	-1900	-620	-2200	-2100	-550
External Debt	5006398.00 EUR Million	5050000	5070000	5110000	5150000	5250000
Current Account to GDP	-0.80 percent	-1.3	-1.3	-1	-1	-0.9
Terms of Trade	113.70 Index Points	114	115	113	112	112
Foreign Direct Investment	3085.00 EUR Million	3200	3240	4950	1500	4330
Capital Flows	-2023.00 EUR Million	-1720	29100	-18700	2500	15100
Remittances	43.00 EUR Million	43	43	45	45	45
Gold Reserves	2436.00 Tonnes	2436	2436	2436	2436	2436
Terrorism Index	5.96	5.96	5.96	5.96	5.96	5.96
Tourism Revenues	7838.00 EUR Million	4510	2540	2620	4950	2750
Tourist Arrivals	82600.00 Thousand	81600	85200	85700	85700	86200
Crude Oil Production	15.00 BBL/D/1K	15	15	15	15	15
Weapons Sales	2162.00 USD Million	1874	1826	1762	1699	1528

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	97.00 percent	96	96	94.6	94.6	92.5
Government Budget	-2.60 percent of GDP	-2.2	-2.2	-2	-2	-1.7
Government Budget Value	-82.76 EUR Billion	-74	-67	-27	-58	-62
Government Spending	135849.00 EUR Million	137542	137867	138166	138566	143718
Government Spending to GDP	56.50 percent	56.2	56.2	55.7	55.7	55.4
Government Revenues	182.11 EUR Billion	242	316	85	170	327
Government Debt	2255.30 EUR Billion	2320	2340	2380	2400	2470
Fiscal Expenditure	239.12 EUR Billion	316	383	112	228	389
Military Expenditure	56287.40 USD Million	56484	56154	56064	55974	55650
Asylum Applications	8620.00 persons	6420	8400	7150	5900	5100

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	110.00 Index Points	110	111	110	110	108
Manufacturing PMI	53.50	54.6	55.1	54.6	54	52.8
Services PMI	55.40 Index Points	56.1	57	56.4	56	54
Composite Pmi	54.90 Index Points	56.6	56.8	56.5	56	53.1
Industrial Production	1.80 percent	1.7	2	2.5	2.9	2.3
Industrial Production Mom	0.70 percent	0.1	0.4	0.5	-0.2	0.4
Manufacturing Production	1.90 percent	1.9	2	2.4	2.5	2.2
Capacity Utilization	85.00 percent	86.4	86.5	86.7	86.7	87
New Orders	-3.50 Index Points	-4	-2	-6	-4	-10
Bankruptcies	298.00 Companies	298	320	312	310	340
Zew Economic Sentiment Index	-1.60	17.9	21	24.4	30.6	22
Car Registrations	248642.00	185200	189900	192000	186500	199400
Internet Speed	10756.57 KBps	11992	12327	12582	12797	15144
IP Addresses	29887339.00 IP	30276966	29957609	30243248	30229624	29536871
Mining Production	1.70 percent	4.4	3.2	3	2.7	2.2
Steel Production	1310.00 Thousand Tonnes	1390	1250	1450	1500	1380
Changes In Inventories	4772.00 EUR Million	9500	8200	6900	6000	4500
Competitiveness Index	5.18 Points	5.18	5.18	5.25	5.25	5.29
Competitiveness Rank	22.00	22	22	21	21	20
Ease of Doing Business	31.00	30	30	29	29	28
Electricity Production	43337.00 Gigawatt-hour	41200	55900	52700	41500	56800
Corruption Index	70.00 Points	71	71	72	72	73
Corruption Rank	23.00	22	22	21	21	20

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	97.00 Index Points	100	106	105	104	103
Retail Sales MoM	0.40 percent	0.8	-0.7	0.5	-0.3	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	2.70 percent	4.8	4.4	4.6	4.2	2.7
Consumer Spending	307230.00 EUR Million	312039	312657	313645	313375	325926
Disposable Personal Income	350671.00 EUR Million	361000	364000	366000	368000	389000
Personal Savings	13.62 percent	13.4	13.2	13	13	12.9
Households Debt To Gdp	58.70 percent of GDP	58	58	56	56	52
Households Debt To Income	89.47 percent	85.8	85.8	84.6	84.6	83.5
Personal Spending	0.10 percent	0.9	0.5	-0.4	-0.3	0.6
Bank Lending Rate	1.82 percent	1.82	1.82	1.82	1.82	2.57
Consumer Credit	1368170.00 EUR Million	1410000	1450000	1490000	1520000	1780000
Gasoline Prices	1.86 USD/Liter	1.9	1.79	1.69	1.6	1.26

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Construction Output	-0.10 percent	2.2	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.1
Housing Index	105.89 Index points	109	109	111	112	119
Housing Starts	32000.00 units	37100	45200	39100	37100	50300
Home Ownership Rate	64.90 percent	63.4	63.4	63.2	63.2	63
New Home Sales	34096.00	31800	36100	32900	34800	40200
Construction Pmi	48.60	54.5	55.1	55.5	55.1	54
Building Permits	40400.00	49400	47200	47500	46400	55100

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	33.30 percent	33.3	33.3	33.3	33.3	33.3
Personal Income Tax Rate	45.00 percent	45	45	45	44	45
Sales Tax Rate	20.00 percent	20	20	20	20	20
Social Security Rate	59.20 percent	59.2	59.2	59.2	59.2	59.2
Social Security Rate For Companies	45.00 percent	45	45	45	44.02	45
Social Security Rate For Employees	14.20 percent	14.2	14.2	14.2	14.2	14.2

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Precipitation	24.37 mm	65.82	79.96	63.32	69.98	71.06
Temperature	7.70 celsius	18.61	9.92	7.71	16.15	13.08

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