France - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.

Overview	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.30	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.7	percent
Unemployment Rate	8.90	8.7	8.5	8.2	8.1	7.2	percent
Inflation Rate	1.60	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.3	percent
Interest Rate	0.00	0	0	0	0.25	0.75	percent
Balance of Trade	-5258.00	-3300	-4700	-2980	-3200	-1650	EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP	97.00	96	96	96	94.6	92.5	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Currency	1.18	1.21	1.19	1.17	1.15	1.08
Stock Market	5614.51 points	4963	4817	4674	4536	4022
Government Bond 10Y	0.83 percent	0.85	1.02	1.21	1.44	2.87

GDP	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.30 percent	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate	2.10 percent	2.1	2.2	1.9	1.8	2.2
GDP	2465.45 USD Billion	2497	2495	2860	2890	2920
GDP Constant Prices	547289.00 EUR Million	550495	553839	556014	555469	579612
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	123063.00 EUR Million	122429	123595	124631	124509	129920
GDP per capita	42013.29 USD	42400	42400	42400	42700	43100
GDP per capita PPP	38058.87 USD	37958	38046	39400	39700	40100
GDP From Agriculture	8351.00 EUR Million	8341	8483	8526	8518	8888
GDP From Construction	24993.00 EUR Million	25236	25347	25373	25348	26450
GDP From Manufacturing	56012.00 EUR Million	56664	57025	57689	57632	60137
GDP From Services	283585.00 EUR Million	283975	285612	287255	286973	299446
GDP From Transport	23910.00 EUR Million	23451	23553	23883	23860	24897
GDP From Utilities	11178.00 EUR Million	11052	11155	11205	11194	11680

LABOUR	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	8.90 percent	8.7	8.5	8.2	8.1	7.2
Employed Persons	27989.50 Thousand	28120	28200	28200	28450	29100
Unemployed Persons	3421.80 Thousand	3408	3392	3378	3369	3290
Employment Rate	65.70 percent	65.5	65.6	65.7	65.7	66.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate	3.60 percent	3.6	3.4	3.4	3.2	3
Youth Unemployment Rate	21.50 percent	21	20.5	20	19.5	18.3
Labour Costs	107.20 Index Points	108	108	109	109	112
Productivity	114.12 Index Points	116	117	119	121	129
Job Vacancies	313.20 Thousand	336	322	225	334	241
Wages	2998.00 EUR/Month	3300	3370	3370	3440	3520
Wages in Manufacturing	117.10 Index Points	117	117	118	118	125
Minimum Wages	1498.47 EUR/Month	1498	1498	1498	1525	1550
Wage Growth	0.10 percent	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7
Population	66.99 Million	67.28	67.28	67.28	67.31	68.06
Retirement Age Women	62.00	62	62	62	62	62
Retirement Age Men	62.00	62	62	62	62	62
Initial Jobless Claims	-1.10 Thousand	-6.9	-48.8	-2.6	17.9	-6
Labor Force Participation Rate	72.00 percent	72.4	72.5	72.4	72.6	72.8
Manufacturing Payrolls	2778.20 Thousand	2785	2795	2820	2850	2950
Living Wage Family	1700.00 EUR/Month	1780	1780	1780	1840	1890
Living Wage Individual	1030.00 EUR/Month	1120	1120	1120	1190	1250
Non Farm Payrolls	25073.00 Thousand	25110	25160	25220	25280	25640
Nonfarm Payrolls Private	19339.70 Thousand	19390	19440	19480	19530	19790
Part Time Employment	4780.00 Thousand	4860	4870	4870	4880	4930
Employment Change	0.20 percent	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.7
Government Payrolls	5791.10 Thousand	5720	5720	5740	5750	5850
Full Time Employment	21870.30 Thousand	22200	22300	22400	22500	22900
Wages Low Skilled	1630.00 EUR/Month	1990	1990	1990	1790	1830
Wages High Skilled	3160.00 EUR/Month	3240	3240	3240	3270	3360

PRICES	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Inflation Rate	1.60 percent	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.3
Inflation Rate Mom	0.20 percent	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI	102.92 Index Points	103	103	104	105	108
Harmonised Consumer Prices	103.43 Index Points	103	103	104	105	109
Core Consumer Prices	101.84 Index Points	102	102	103	103	107
Core Inflation Rate	0.80 percent	1.1	1.2	1.5	1.7	2.2
Producer Prices	102.50 Index Points	101	102	104	105	109
Producer Prices Change	2.50 percent	1.9	2.2	2.1	2.5	2.3
Export Prices	114.80 Index Points	115	115	126	115	130
Import Prices	99.60 Index Points	103	101	107	99.87	111
Food Inflation	1.60 percent	1.5	1.9	2.1	2.2	2.5
CPI Housing Utilities	103.33 Index Points	103	103	104	105	109
CPI Transportation	106.01 Index Points	103	103	105	106	110

MONEY	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Interest Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0.25	0.75
Interbank Rate	-0.33 percent	-0.33	-0.33	-0.08	-0.08	0.42
Money Supply M1	1205338.00 EUR Million	1250000	1290000	1320000	1360000	1590000
Money Supply M2	2044263.00 EUR Million	2080000	2110000	2150000	2190000	2320000
Money Supply M3	2449353.00 EUR Million	2510000	2550000	2590000	2620000	2850000
Banks Balance Sheet	8629562.00 EUR Million	8950000	9150000	9250000	9450000	9780000
Foreign Exchange Reserves	151.62 EUR Billion	151	151	168	150	175
Loans to Private Sector	2380715.00 EUR Million	2420000	2460000	2490000	2540000	2860000
Loan Growth	4.99 percent	6.5	6.2	5.8	5.6	5.1
Private Debt to GDP	233.97 percent	225	225	225	221	217
Central Bank Balance Sheet	1050750.00 EUR Million	1110000	1190000	1250000	1320000	1750000

TRADE	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-5258.00 EUR Million	-3300	-4700	-2980	-3200	-1650
Exports	39913.00 EUR Million	39800	41500	42920	41600	47850
Imports	45171.00 EUR Million	43100	46200	45900	44800	49500
Current Account	-1269.00 EUR Million	-2300	-1900	-620	-2200	-550
External Debt	4830884.00 EUR Million	4750000	4710000	4650000	4720000	4850000
Current Account to GDP	-0.80 percent	-1.3	-1.3	-1.3	-1	-0.9
Terms of Trade	115.26 Index Points	112	114	118	115	117
Foreign Direct Investment	2360.00 EUR Million	1250	3200	3240	4950	4330
Capital Flows	11028.00 EUR Million	2150	-1720	29100	-18700	15100
Remittances	43.00 EUR Million	40	40	40	38	38
Gold Reserves	2436.00 Tonnes	2436	2436	2436	2436	2436
Terrorism Index	5.96	5.96	5.96	5.96	5.46	5.96
Tourism Revenues	3624.00 EUR Million	4720	4510	2540	2620	2750
Tourist Arrivals	82600.00 Thousand	85200	81600	85200	80625	86200
Crude Oil Production	15.00 BBL/D/1K	15	15	15	15	15
Weapons Sales	2162.00 USD Million	2162	2162	2162	2162	2162

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	97.00 percent	96	96	96	94.6	92.5
Government Budget	-2.60 percent of GDP	-2.2	-2.2	-2.2	-2	-1.7
Government Budget Value	-33.05 EUR Billion	-60	-74	-67	-27	-62
Government Spending	132030.00 EUR Million	133129	134021	134071	133939	139761
Government Spending to GDP	56.50 percent	56.2	56.2	56.2	55.7	55.4
Government Revenues	76.25 EUR Billion	164	242	316	85	327
Government Debt	2218.40 EUR Billion	2280	2320	2340	2380	2470
Fiscal Expenditure	88.57 EUR Billion	224	316	383	112	389
Military Expenditure	56287.40 USD Million	55666	55760	55855	55880	54688
Asylum Applications	8355.00 persons	6500	6420	8400	7150	5100

BUSINESS	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Business Confidence	109.00 Index Points	111	108	111	110	108
Manufacturing PMI	53.80	54	56.6	55.1	54.6	52.8
Services PMI	57.40 Index Points	56.7	58.1	57	56.4	54
Composite Pmi	56.90 Index Points	55.7	58.6	56.8	56.5	53.1
Industrial Production	1.80 percent	1.5	1.7	2	2.5	2.3
Industrial Production Mom	-0.40 percent	-0.3	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.4
Manufacturing Production	0.40 percent	1.8	1.9	2	2.4	2.2
Capacity Utilization	85.20 percent	86.2	86.4	86.5	86.7	87
New Orders	0.20 Index Points	1	1.5	1.1	0.7	0.5
Bankruptcies	290.00 Companies	318	298	320	312	340
Zew Economic Sentiment Index	8.60	15.1	17.9	21	24.4	22
Car Registrations	175800.00	181500	185200	189900	192000	199400
Internet Speed	10756.57 KBps	10680	10794	10796	10621	9610
IP Addresses	29887339.00 IP	29969297	30276966	29957609	30243248	29536871
Mining Production	1.30 percent	5.1	4.4	3.2	3	2.2
Steel Production	1352.86 Thousand Tonnes	1450	1390	1250	1450	1380
Changes In Inventories	8300.00 EUR Million	6400	9500	8200	6900	4500
Competitiveness Index	5.18 Points	5.18	5.18	5.18	5.25	5.29
Competitiveness Rank	22.00	22	22	22	21	20
Ease of Doing Business	31.00	30	30	30	29	28
Electricity Production	56368.00 Gigawatt-hour	40100	41200	55900	52700	56800
Corruption Index	70.00 Points	71	71	71	72	73
Corruption Rank	23.00	22	22	22	21	20

CONSUMER	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	101.00 Index Points	103	102	106	105	103
Retail Sales MoM	0.50 percent	-0.4	0.8	-0.7	0.5	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	3.20 percent	3	4.8	4.4	4.6	2.7
Consumer Spending	300651.00 EUR Million	304162	306054	305848	305548	318828
Disposable Personal Income	355850.00 EUR Million	359000	361000	364000	366000	389000
Personal Savings	14.21 percent	13.8	13.4	13.2	13	12.9
Households Debt To Gdp	58.30 percent of GDP	58	58	58	56	52
Households Debt To Income	89.47 percent	90.55	91.16	85.8	92.11	83.5
Personal Spending	0.10 percent	-0.3	0.9	0.5	-0.4	0.6
Bank Lending Rate	1.82 percent	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9	2.5
Consumer Credit	1340006.00 EUR Million	1380000	1410000	1450000	1490000	1780000
Gasoline Prices	1.85 USD/Liter	1.69	1.59	1.5	1.41	0.98

HOUSING	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Construction Output	-2.20 percent	1.9	2.2	2.4	2.6	2.1
Housing Index	105.78 Index points	108	110	111	112	119
Housing Starts	34100.00	36300	37100	45200	39100	50300
Home Ownership Rate	64.90 percent	63.4	64.52	63.4	64.35	63
New Home Sales	30059.00	34100	31800	36100	32900	40200
Construction Pmi	55.00	56.2	54.5	55.1	55.5	54
Building Permits	40500.00	45800	49400	47200	47500	55100

TAXES	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	33.30 percent	33.3	33.3	33.3	34	33.3
Personal Income Tax Rate	45.00 percent	45	45	45	45	45
Sales Tax Rate	20.00 percent	20	20	20	20	20
Social Security Rate	59.20 percent	59.2	59.2	59.2	59.2	59.2
Social Security Rate For Companies	45.00 percent	45	45	45	45	45
Social Security Rate For Employees	14.20 percent	14.2	14.22	14.2	14.23	14.2

CLIMATE	Actual	Q2/18	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	2020
Precipitation	24.37 mm	69.08	65.82	79.96	63.32	71.06
Temperature	7.70 celsius	14.98	18.61	9.92	7.71	13.08

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