France | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

French GDP growth is expected to pick up in 2017 mainly boosted by investment and foreign demand while household consumption is likely to slow as the upturn in inflation is set to erode gains in purchasing power. Nominal wages should remain steady in the near term, and inflation is expected to increase further on higher energy prices. Still, the unemployment rate should fall to 9.5 percent by the end of 2017, as the expected rise in employment should continue to offset the growth in the labour force. On the external demand, exports should benefit from strong world demand, a weaker euro and the gradual return of foreign tourists to France. The budget deficit is likely to narrow to 3 percent of GDP in 2017, the lowest in ten years, as the French government is expected to cut 50 thousand of public sector jobs, while it will increase defence spending to 2 percent of GDP. This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.60 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4886.00 -3400 -3650 -3300 -3300 -1650 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 96.00 95.9 95.9 96 96 92.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.16 1.12 1.11 1.1 1.08 0.96 [+]
Stock Market 5127.70 5140 5090 5030 4980 4410 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.75 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.94 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 2465.45 2800 2820 2507 2468 2920 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 535043.00 536000 537000 543110 544884 562000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 118238.00 119200 120400 121510 121842 125200 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 42013.29 42000 42000 42400 42400 43100 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38058.87 38900 39000 38069 38115 40100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7915.00 8075 8079 8178 8039 8970 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24489.00 25650 25781 24631 24638 25500 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 55194.00 54072 54088 55437 55455 55000 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 275997.00 277510 276810 281054 282044 283000 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 22677.00 23392 23506 23034 23056 25700 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10696.00 11500 11778 10640 10639 12714 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.60 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 8.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27747.60 27985 28000 28120 28120 29100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3494.10 3420 3410 3400 3400 3310 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 64.70 65.2 65.4 65.5 65.5 69 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.87 3.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.60 22.3 21.1 20.9 20.9 18.3 percent [+]
Productivity 112.80 114 114 114 114 119 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 106.80 109 110 108 108 119 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 266.40 282 200 253 252 208 Thousand [+]
Wages 2957.00 3150 3270 3300 3300 3520 EUR/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.50 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 116.10 116 116 117 118 129 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1480.27 1480 1480 1500 1500 1530 EUR/Month [+]
Population 66.99 66.99 66.99 67.28 67.28 68.06 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.33 65.33 65.33 67.42 67.86 66.33 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.33 65.33 65.33 67.42 67.86 66.33 [+]
Employment Change 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 21337.90 22000 22100 22200 22300 22900 Thousand [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1860.00 1940 1940 1683 1677 2070 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 3140.00 3190 3190 3062 3056 3360 EUR/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16227.70 16190 16200 16370 16388 16800 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 4812.70 4840 4850 4860 4860 4930 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1365.70 1450 1450 1520 1520 1920 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1063.20 1220 1220 1310 1310 1730 EUR/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 71.40 56.5 56.6 71.38 71.36 57.5 percent [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 22.30 -12 -18 2.69 2.63 -14 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.34 105 107 101 101 120 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.61 105 107 109 109 121 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.11 107 109 111 111 123 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.40 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 103.70 110 112 114 114 124 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.10 4.7 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 115.60 120 122 116 116 130 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.40 103 105 99.24 99.24 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.80 1.9 2.1 2 2 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 101.20 101 102 102 102 104 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.00 104 106 108 108 120 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.15 -0.05 0.15 0.15 1.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1150432.00 1120000 1130000 1149200 1149336 1510000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1960052.00 2180000 2210000 2044731 2071393 3020000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2379003.00 2620000 2690000 2500530 2534556 3330000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 8745375.00 9120000 9180000 8765216 8741113 10300000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 149.25 151 165 151 151 175 EUR Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2286455.00 2250000 2270000 2365055 2385465 2720000 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 965184.00 925000 941000 1028129 1036058 1751000 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 228.93 231 219 233 234 209 percent [+]
Loan Growth 5.83 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.8 5.8 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -4886.00 -3400 -3650 -3300 -3300 -1650 EUR Million [+]
Exports 40135.00 36800 36350 37800 37800 37850 EUR Million [+]
Imports 45021.00 40200 40000 41100 41100 39500 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -2349.00 -1852 -922 -1250 -1250 -550 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4735352.00 5460000 5620000 4812675 4763820 6520000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.90 -1.8 -1.8 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 115.14 116 116 115 115 122 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3702.00 -500 2980 3583 3586 4330 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 6771.00 8550 -8006 -2088 -2060 7500 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 50.00 49.26 39 49.27 49.27 39 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 2435.91 2440 2440 2436 2436 2440 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 15.00 17 17 14.61 14.49 17 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2226.00 2110 2173 2155 2137 2137 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.60 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 [+]
Tourism Revenues 3857.00 3415 2870 3282 3554 3287 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 84500.00 84800 84800 85200 85200 86200 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 96.00 95.9 95.9 96 96 92.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.40 -3 -3 -2.7 -2.7 -1.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -66.45 -82 -67.5 -27.2 -59.9 -61.8 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 129716.00 132700 132800 131052 131326 134000 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 56.20 55.4 55.4 54.7 54.7 53 percent [+]
Government Revenues 127.83 226 312 68 159 258 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 2209.60 2260 2280 2277 2304 2470 EUR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 167.31 308 380 95 219 320 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 7985.00 6420 8250 7160 7160 2150 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 55680.60 55798 55851 55873 55896 55704 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 108.00 102 103 104 104 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.40 51.5 51.9 52.4 53.2 52.8 [+]
Services PMI 55.90 54.2 53.4 55.5 55.5 54 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 55.70 55.4 54.2 56.2 56.2 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.20 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.3 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.90 0.4 0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.30 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.50 83.8 84 83.48 83.42 87 percent [+]
New Orders -5.00 -12 -10 -8 -8 -6 [+]
Bankruptcies 317.00 320 375 318 318 360 Companies [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 40.90 6 12 14 14 22 [+]
Car Registrations 166906.00 166500 162700 172400 172400 163500 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 10753.00 4180 2358 10064 9972 2224 EUR Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.20 5.2 5.2 5.25 5.25 5.34 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 21.00 21 21 20 20 18 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 29.00 28 28 27 27 25 [+]
Electricity Production 43060.00 39200 54804 47045 45498 56542 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 69.00 70 70 71 71 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 23.00 22 22 21 21 19 [+]
Steel Production 1325.43 1290 990 1391 1309 1050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.50 2 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.9 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 108.00 98 99 100 100 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 296565.00 298400 299900 300316 301240 308000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 349035.00 351000 352000 354809 356085 362000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 13.42 14.5 14.9 13.6 13.77 12.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.76 1.85 1.92 1.76 1.76 2.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1279383.00 1550000 1670000 1326958 1339426 2560000 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.50 1.41 1.45 1.44 1.46 1.65 USD/Liter [+]
Personal Spending 1.00 0.4 0.5 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40 56 55.8 58.32 58.48 52.4 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 88.27 86.5 86.3 88.59 88.65 83.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output 4.10 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 102.85 106 107 106 106 119 Index points [+]
Building Permits 41600.00 45700 38600 34600 34600 39400 [+]
Construction Pmi 52.30 52.2 51.6 52.5 52.5 53.4 [+]
New Home Sales 30909.00 28100 29700 31600 31600 32500 [+]
Housing Starts 31000.00 35400 40500 32200 32200 42300 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.10 63.8 63.8 63.4 63.4 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 33.30 33.3 33.3 33 33.3 33.3 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 50.20 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 54.83 54.8 54.8 54.8 54.8 54.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.63 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.20 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 percent [+]