France | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

French GDP growth is expected to pick up in 2017 mainly boosted by investment and foreign demand while household consumption is likely to slow as the upturn in inflation is set to erode gains in purchasing power. Nominal wages should remain steady in the near term, and inflation is expected to increase further on higher energy prices. Still, the unemployment rate should fall to 9.5 percent by the end of 2017, as the expected rise in employment should continue to offset the growth in the labour force. On the external demand, exports should benefit from strong world demand, a weaker euro and the gradual return of foreign tourists to France. The budget deficit is likely to narrow to 3 percent of GDP in 2017, the lowest in ten years, as the French government is expected to cut 50 thousand of public sector jobs, while it will increase defence spending to 2 percent of GDP. This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.60 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.80 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -5535.00 -3100 -3400 -3650 -3300 -1650 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 96.00 95.9 95.9 95.9 96 92.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.12 1.1 1.09 1.08 1.07 0.89 [+]
Stock Market 5322.69 5160 5110 4960 5010 4170 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.59 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.76 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 2418.84 2780 2800 2820 2369 2920 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 535043.00 535000 536000 537000 543110 562000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 118238.00 118500 119200 120400 121510 125200 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 41702.40 41800 41900 42000 42158 43100 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 37775.00 38800 38900 39000 38135 40100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7915.00 8071 8075 8079 8178 8970 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 24489.00 25606 25650 25781 24631 25500 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 55194.00 54054 54072 54088 55437 55000 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 275997.00 276920 277510 276810 281054 283000 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 22677.00 23217 23392 23506 23034 25700 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10696.00 11417 11500 11778 10640 12714 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.60 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 8.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27747.60 27888 27985 28000 28120 29100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3471.80 3430 3420 3410 3400 3310 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 64.70 65 65.2 65.4 65.5 69 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.70 23.4 22.3 21.1 20.9 18.3 percent [+]
Productivity 112.80 113 114 114 114 119 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 106.80 109 109 110 108 119 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 266.40 270 282 200 253 208 Thousand [+]
Wages 2957.00 3050 3150 3270 3300 3520 EUR/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.50 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 116.10 116 116 116 117 129 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1480.27 1480 1480 1480 1500 1530 EUR/Month [+]
Population 66.63 66.81 66.93 67.11 67.18 68.74 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.33 65.33 65.33 65.33 67.86 66.33 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.33 65.33 65.33 65.33 67.86 66.33 [+]
Employment Change 0.20 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 21435.80 21922 22000 22100 22200 22900 Thousand [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1860.00 1900 1940 1940 1683 2070 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 3140.00 3180 3190 3190 3062 3360 EUR/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16227.70 16170 16190 16200 16370 16800 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 4759.00 4830 4840 4850 4860 4930 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1365.70 1450 1450 1450 1520 1920 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1063.20 1220 1220 1220 1310 1730 EUR/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 71.40 56.4 56.5 56.6 71.38 57.5 percent [+]
Initial Jobless Claims -36.30 26 -12 -18 -1.55 -14 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.80 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.34 103 105 107 102 120 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.60 103 105 107 109 121 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.99 105 107 109 111 123 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.40 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 104.40 108 110 112 114 124 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.90 5.1 4.7 3.3 2.6 2.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 117.10 118 120 122 117 130 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.50 102 103 105 103 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.40 1.8 1.9 2.1 2 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 101.31 101 102 102 102 105 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 97.95 102 104 106 108 120 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.25 -0.15 -0.05 0.15 1.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1148382.00 1100000 1120000 1130000 1136112 1510000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1960193.00 2150000 2180000 2210000 2032932 3020000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2359300.00 2560000 2620000 2690000 2472477 3330000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 8789430.00 8940000 9120000 9180000 8908433 10300000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 151.50 163 152 165 152 175 EUR Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2299665.00 2230000 2250000 2270000 2424822 2720000 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 961829.00 892000 925000 941000 1038338 1751000 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 228.93 220 220 219 219 209 percent [+]
Loan Growth 6.24 6 6.2 6.5 6.6 5.8 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -5535.00 -3100 -3400 -3650 -3300 -1650 EUR Million [+]
Exports 38276.00 37000 36800 36350 37800 37850 EUR Million [+]
Imports 43811.00 40100 40200 40000 41100 39500 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -3063.00 -1450 -1852 -922 -1250 -550 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4735352.00 5250000 5460000 5620000 4812675 6520000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.90 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.3 -0.9 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 114.24 115 116 116 114 122 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2938.00 4450 -500 2980 3165 4330 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -19435.00 9110 8550 -8006 -3235 7500 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 50.00 39 49.01 39 49.01 39 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 2435.91 2440 2440 2440 2436 2440 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 15.00 17 17 17 14.61 17 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2226.00 2046 2110 2173 2155 2137 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.60 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 [+]
Tourism Revenues 3707.00 4537 3445 2486 3374 3297 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 84500.00 84800 84800 84800 85200 86200 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 96.00 95.9 95.9 95.9 96 92.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.40 -3 -3 -3 -2.7 -1.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -57.93 -60.4 -82 -67.5 -27.2 -61.8 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 129716.00 132600 132700 132800 131052 134000 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 56.20 55.4 55.4 55.4 54.7 53 percent [+]
Government Revenues 100.25 155 226 312 68 258 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 2147.20 2240 2260 2280 2215 2470 EUR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 134.51 215 308 380 95 320 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 7985.00 7054 6420 8250 7160 2150 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 55680.60 55746 55798 55851 55873 55704 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 108.00 110 102 103 104 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.00 55 51.5 51.9 52.4 52.8 [+]
Services PMI 55.30 55.3 54.2 53.4 55.5 54 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 55.30 55.3 55.4 54.2 56.2 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.60 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.3 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.50 -0.5 0.4 0.6 -0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.10 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.50 83.6 83.8 84 83.48 87 percent [+]
New Orders -5.00 -18 -12 -10 -8 -6 [+]
Bankruptcies 320.00 382 320 375 323 360 Companies [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 35.30 4 6 12 14 22 [+]
Car Registrations 185676.00 165600 166500 162700 172400 163500 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 10753.00 2880 4180 2358 10064 2224 EUR Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.20 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.25 5.34 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 21.00 21 21 21 20 18 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 29.00 28 28 28 27 25 [+]
Electricity Production 44335.00 40135 39200 54804 47088 56542 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 69.00 70 70 70 71 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 23.00 22 22 22 21 19 [+]
Steel Production 1425.00 1382 1290 990 1386 1050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 3.90 1.8 2 1.6 1.4 0.9 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.00 96 98 99 100 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.10 -0.6 0.21 0.7 0.2 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.40 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.4 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 296565.00 297800 298400 299900 300316 308000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 349035.00 349600 351000 352000 354809 362000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 13.42 14.3 14.5 14.9 13.6 12.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.79 1.84 1.85 1.92 1.79 2.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1279383.00 1440000 1550000 1670000 1326958 2560000 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.53 1.43 1.51 1.45 1.44 1.65 USD/Liter [+]
Personal Spending 0.50 -0.7 0.4 0.5 -0.6 0.8 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40 56 56 55.8 58.32 52.4 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 88.27 86.7 86.5 86.3 88.59 83.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 6.20 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 102.17 105 106 107 102 119 Index points [+]
Building Permits 35200.00 38900 45700 38600 34600 39400 [+]
Construction Pmi 53.50 52.9 52.2 51.6 52.5 53.4 [+]
New Home Sales 30909.00 34100 28100 29700 31600 32500 [+]
Housing Starts 31700.00 34400 35400 40500 32200 42300 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.10 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.4 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 33.30 33.3 33.3 33.3 33 33.3 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 50.20 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 54.83 54.8 54.8 54.8 54.8 54.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.63 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.20 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 percent [+]