France - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.90 8.7 8.5 8.2 8.1 7.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -5258.00 -3300 -4700 -2980 -3200 -1650 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 97.00 96 96 96 94.6 92.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.18
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 5614.51
points
4963 4817 4674 4536 4022
Government Bond 10Y 0.83
percent
0.85 1.02 1.21 1.44 2.87
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10
percent
2.1 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.2
GDP 2465.45
USD Billion
2497 2495 2860 2890 2920
GDP Constant Prices 547289.00
EUR Million
550495 553839 556014 555469 579612
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 123063.00
EUR Million
122429 123595 124631 124509 129920
GDP per capita 42013.29
USD
42400 42400 42400 42700 43100
GDP per capita PPP 38058.87
USD
37958 38046 39400 39700 40100
GDP From Agriculture 8351.00
EUR Million
8341 8483 8526 8518 8888
GDP From Construction 24993.00
EUR Million
25236 25347 25373 25348 26450
GDP From Manufacturing 56012.00
EUR Million
56664 57025 57689 57632 60137
GDP From Services 283585.00
EUR Million
283975 285612 287255 286973 299446
GDP From Transport 23910.00
EUR Million
23451 23553 23883 23860 24897
GDP From Utilities 11178.00
EUR Million
11052 11155 11205 11194 11680
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.90
percent
8.7 8.5 8.2 8.1 7.2
Employed Persons 27989.50
Thousand
28120 28200 28200 28450 29100
Unemployed Persons 3421.80
Thousand
3408 3392 3378 3369 3290
Employment Rate 65.70
percent
65.5 65.6 65.7 65.7 66.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.60
percent
3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.50
percent
21 20.5 20 19.5 18.3
Labour Costs 107.20
Index Points
108 108 109 109 112
Productivity 114.12
Index Points
116 117 119 121 129
Job Vacancies 313.20
Thousand
336 322 225 334 241
Wages 2998.00
EUR/Month
3300 3370 3370 3440 3520
Wages in Manufacturing 117.10
Index Points
117 117 118 118 125
Minimum Wages 1498.47
EUR/Month
1498 1498 1498 1525 1550
Wage Growth 0.10
percent
0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7
Population 66.99
Million
67.28 67.28 67.28 67.31 68.06
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Initial Jobless Claims -1.10
Thousand
-6.9 -48.8 -2.6 17.9 -6
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.00
percent
72.4 72.5 72.4 72.6 72.8
Manufacturing Payrolls 2778.20
Thousand
2785 2795 2820 2850 2950
Living Wage Family 1700.00
EUR/Month
1780 1780 1780 1840 1890
Living Wage Individual 1030.00
EUR/Month
1120 1120 1120 1190 1250
Non Farm Payrolls 25073.00
Thousand
25110 25160 25220 25280 25640
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 19339.70
Thousand
19390 19440 19480 19530 19790
Part Time Employment 4780.00
Thousand
4860 4870 4870 4880 4930
Employment Change 0.20
percent
0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7
Government Payrolls 5791.10
Thousand
5720 5720 5740 5750 5850
Full Time Employment 21870.30
Thousand
22200 22300 22400 22500 22900
Wages Low Skilled 1630.00
EUR/Month
1990 1990 1990 1790 1830
Wages High Skilled 3160.00
EUR/Month
3240 3240 3240 3270 3360
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.92
Index Points
103 103 104 105 108
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.43
Index Points
103 103 104 105 109
Core Consumer Prices 101.84
Index Points
102 102 103 103 107
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent
1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.2
Producer Prices 102.50
Index Points
101 102 104 105 109
Producer Prices Change 2.50
percent
1.9 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.3
Export Prices 114.80
Index Points
115 115 126 115 130
Import Prices 99.60
Index Points
103 101 107 99.87 111
Food Inflation 1.60
percent
1.5 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 103.33
Index Points
103 103 104 105 109
CPI Transportation 106.01
Index Points
103 103 105 106 110
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
-0.33 -0.33 -0.08 -0.08 0.42
Money Supply M1 1205338.00
EUR Million
1250000 1290000 1320000 1360000 1590000
Money Supply M2 2044263.00
EUR Million
2080000 2110000 2150000 2190000 2320000
Money Supply M3 2449353.00
EUR Million
2510000 2550000 2590000 2620000 2850000
Banks Balance Sheet 8629562.00
EUR Million
8950000 9150000 9250000 9450000 9780000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 151.62
EUR Billion
151 151 168 150 175
Loans to Private Sector 2380715.00
EUR Million
2420000 2460000 2490000 2540000 2860000
Loan Growth 4.99
percent
6.5 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.1
Private Debt to GDP 233.97
percent
225 225 225 221 217
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1050750.00
EUR Million
1110000 1190000 1250000 1320000 1750000
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -5258.00
EUR Million
-3300 -4700 -2980 -3200 -1650
Exports 39913.00
EUR Million
39800 41500 42920 41600 47850
Imports 45171.00
EUR Million
43100 46200 45900 44800 49500
Current Account -1269.00
EUR Million
-2300 -1900 -620 -2200 -550
External Debt 4830884.00
EUR Million
4750000 4710000 4650000 4720000 4850000
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
-1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1 -0.9
Terms of Trade 115.26
Index Points
112 114 118 115 117
Foreign Direct Investment 2360.00
EUR Million
1250 3200 3240 4950 4330
Capital Flows 11028.00
EUR Million
2150 -1720 29100 -18700 15100
Remittances 43.00
EUR Million
40 40 40 38 38
Gold Reserves 2436.00
Tonnes
2436 2436 2436 2436 2436
Terrorism Index 5.96
5.96 5.96 5.96 5.46 5.96
Tourism Revenues 3624.00
EUR Million
4720 4510 2540 2620 2750
Tourist Arrivals 82600.00
Thousand
85200 81600 85200 80625 86200
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K
15 15 15 15 15
Weapons Sales 2162.00
USD Million
2162 2162 2162 2162 2162
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 97.00
percent
96 96 96 94.6 92.5
Government Budget -2.60
percent of GDP
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2 -1.7
Government Budget Value -33.05
EUR Billion
-60 -74 -67 -27 -62
Government Spending 132030.00
EUR Million
133129 134021 134071 133939 139761
Government Spending to GDP 56.50
percent
56.2 56.2 56.2 55.7 55.4
Government Revenues 76.25
EUR Billion
164 242 316 85 327
Government Debt 2218.40
EUR Billion
2280 2320 2340 2380 2470
Fiscal Expenditure 88.57
EUR Billion
224 316 383 112 389
Military Expenditure 56287.40
USD Million
55666 55760 55855 55880 54688
Asylum Applications 8355.00
persons
6500 6420 8400 7150 5100
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 109.00
Index Points
111 108 111 110 108
Manufacturing PMI 53.80
54 56.6 55.1 54.6 52.8
Services PMI 57.40
Index Points
56.7 58.1 57 56.4 54
Composite Pmi 56.90
Index Points
55.7 58.6 56.8 56.5 53.1
Industrial Production 1.80
percent
1.5 1.7 2 2.5 2.3
Industrial Production Mom -0.40
percent
-0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production 0.40
percent
1.8 1.9 2 2.4 2.2
Capacity Utilization 85.20
percent
86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 87
New Orders 0.20
Index Points
1 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5
Bankruptcies 290.00
Companies
318 298 320 312 340
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 8.60
15.1 17.9 21 24.4 22
Car Registrations 175800.00
181500 185200 189900 192000 199400
Internet Speed 10756.57
KBps
10680 10794 10796 10621 9610
IP Addresses 29887339.00
IP
29969297 30276966 29957609 30243248 29536871
Mining Production 1.30
percent
5.1 4.4 3.2 3 2.2
Steel Production 1352.86
Thousand Tonnes
1450 1390 1250 1450 1380
Changes In Inventories 8300.00
EUR Million
6400 9500 8200 6900 4500
Competitiveness Index 5.18
Points
5.18 5.18 5.18 5.25 5.29
Competitiveness Rank 22.00
22 22 22 21 20
Ease of Doing Business 31.00
30 30 30 29 28
Electricity Production 56368.00
Gigawatt-hour
40100 41200 55900 52700 56800
Corruption Index 70.00
Points
71 71 71 72 73
Corruption Rank 23.00
22 22 22 21 20
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.00
Index Points
103 102 106 105 103
Retail Sales MoM 0.50
percent
-0.4 0.8 -0.7 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 3.20
percent
3 4.8 4.4 4.6 2.7
Consumer Spending 300651.00
EUR Million
304162 306054 305848 305548 318828
Disposable Personal Income 355850.00
EUR Million
359000 361000 364000 366000 389000
Personal Savings 14.21
percent
13.8 13.4 13.2 13 12.9
Households Debt To Gdp 58.30
percent of GDP
58 58 58 56 52
Households Debt To Income 89.47
percent
90.55 91.16 85.8 92.11 83.5
Personal Spending 0.10
percent
-0.3 0.9 0.5 -0.4 0.6
Bank Lending Rate 1.82
percent
1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.5
Consumer Credit 1340006.00
EUR Million
1380000 1410000 1450000 1490000 1780000
Gasoline Prices 1.85
USD/Liter
1.69 1.59 1.5 1.41 0.98
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output -2.20
percent
1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.1
Housing Index 105.78
Index points
108 110 111 112 119
Housing Starts 34100.00
36300 37100 45200 39100 50300
Home Ownership Rate 64.90
percent
63.4 64.52 63.4 64.35 63
New Home Sales 30059.00
34100 31800 36100 32900 40200
Construction Pmi 55.00
56.2 54.5 55.1 55.5 54
Building Permits 40500.00
45800 49400 47200 47500 55100
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 33.30
percent
33.3 33.3 33.3 34 33.3
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 59.20
percent
59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2
Social Security Rate For Companies 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.20
percent
14.2 14.22 14.2 14.23 14.2
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 24.37
mm
69.08 65.82 79.96 63.32 71.06
Temperature 7.70
celsius
14.98 18.61 9.92 7.71 13.08