France 10Y Bond Yield Hits 6-week High

France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed past 3.75%, hitting its highest since May 19, as investors reacted to rising political uncertainty and surging oil prices. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen confirmed plans for a fourth presidential bid, despite a court ruling requiring her to wear an electronic-monitoring device after an appeals panel upheld her conviction for misusing public funds. Polls currently place her National Rally party as the frontrunner, with its candidate expected to advance to the second-round runoff, while President Macron’s successor remains unclear. Oil prices also rose above $78 per barrel following a new exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, heightening inflation fears, with President Trump further escalating tensions by stating that as far as he is concerned, the Iran ceasefire is over. Traders are now pricing in more than 30 basis points of additional ECB tightening this year, equivalent to at least one rate hike, potentially as early as September.

France 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 3.75%, the highest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, France 10Y Bond Yield gained 3.39 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 38.90 basis points.

France's 10-year OAT yield rose to 3.65%, its highest level since June 11, as investors weighed mounting political uncertainty and higher oil prices. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen was cleared to run in the 2027 presidential election, although she will be required to wear an electronic bracelet for a year—a condition she has said could lead her to withdraw. Polls still show the National Rally as the frontrunner, with its candidate widely expected to reach the second-round runoff, while uncertainty persists over who will emerge as the main challenger after President Emmanuel Macron, who has yet to establish a clear successor. Meanwhile, crude oil climbed above $73 per barrel following attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, fueling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the ECB may keep interest rates higher for longer. ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel also warned that the economic impact of the Iran conflict remains significant as core inflation stays elevated.