French Bond Yields Surge Amid Political, Oil Market Turmoil

2026-07-08 07:33 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed past 3.75%, hitting its highest since May 19, as investors reacted to rising political uncertainty and surging oil prices.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen confirmed plans for a fourth presidential bid, despite a court ruling requiring her to wear an electronic-monitoring device after an appeals panel upheld her conviction for misusing public funds.

Polls currently place her National Rally party as the frontrunner, with its candidate expected to advance to the second-round runoff, while President Macron’s successor remains unclear.

Oil prices also rose above $78 per barrel following a new exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, heightening inflation fears, with President Trump further escalating tensions by stating that as far as he is concerned, the Iran ceasefire is over.

Traders are now pricing in more than 30 basis points of additional ECB tightening this year, equivalent to at least one rate hike, potentially as early as September.



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