French Private Sector Downturn Deeper After Revision

The S&P Global France Composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September 2026 from 48.5 in August and better than market forecasts of 48.7, flash estimates showed. The data showed the country's private sector returning to expansion at its strongest pace in more than two years, bringing an end to a sustained period of contraction since the start of the year. The upturn was led by a rebound in services, where activity expanded at its fastest pace in seven months. Meanwhile, manufacturing output growth slowed and remained marginal. Demand improved slightly, with new orders rising for the first time in ten months, albeit marginally. Export orders continued to fall, but the decline was the weakest recorded so far this year. Meanwhile, employment decreased modestly and for a fifth straight month. Inflationary pressures intensified, with input and output prices rising at faster rates for the first time since May. Business confidence also deteriorated, reaching its lowest level since May.

The HCOB France Composite PMI for August 2026 was revised down to 48.5 from a flash estimate of 48.8, and below July's 49.4. The data confirmed an eighth consecutive month of contraction, with the pace of decline quickening from July. The downturn remained entirely concentrated in services, as manufacturing output posted a marginal increase in August. Demand, however, stayed weak across the board, resulting in lower total new orders and a sharper fall in backlogs. Employment declined again, while easing input cost pressures, which reached a six-month low, failed to translate into lower output price inflation. Latstly, business confidence slipped for the first time since May.

The S&P Global France Composite PMI eased to 48.8 in August 2026 from 49.4 in July and worse than market forecasts of 49.5, flash estimates showed. The data signaled the eighth straight month of decline in the country’s private sector, with the pace of contraction quickening from July. The weakness stemmed entirely from services, while manufacturing output rose for the first time since April. Respondents often cited extreme heat as a factor behind lower activity levels and demand. New orders declined at a faster pace, extending the current run of lower sales volumes to nine months. At the same time, export activity deteriorated further. Payroll numbers fell for the fourth month running, reflecting job losses in services. Meanwhile, input cost inflation eased to a five-month low, while output charge inflation was largely unchanged. Business confidence weakened, with optimism falling to its lowest since May amid international and domestic political uncertainty.