French Private Sector Contraction Deepens

The S&P Global France Composite PMI for October 2026 was revised sharply down to 46.6 from the flash estimate of 48.4, falling below September’s 51.1. The data confirmed a return to contraction in the country’s private sector, with the decline being solid and the steepest since May. Both manufacturing and services activity contracted, although the downturn was significantly more pronounced in services. Output, new orders and employment all declined, particularly in services. Meanwhile, lower inflationary pressures in services helped counter rising manufacturing costs and selling prices, resulting in slower price growth across the private sector.

France’s S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 48.4 in October 2026 from 51.1 in September, largely missing market forecasts of 50.5, flash estimates showed. This marked a return to contraction after September’s rebound, with activity at a four-month low. New orders fell the most since May as domestic and global uncertainty prompted customers to delay projects and curb spending. Export orders also continued to shrink for an eleventh consecutive month. Moreover, employment declined for a sixth straight month as companies reduced headcounts through non-replacement of departing workers and contract non-renewals. On the price front, overall inflationary pressures eased as slower services inflation offset rising manufacturing costs, with supply-chain disruptions driving the sharpest increase in factory selling prices since May. Looking ahead, business confidence deteriorated to its lowest level since April 2020, with firms citing concerns over next year’s elections and public finances.

The S&P Global France Composite PMI rose to 51.1 in September 2026 from 48.5 in August but was revised slightly down from a preliminary estimate of 51.2. The reading signalled a return to growth in private-sector activity after contracting for eight consecutive months, largely driven by a rebound in services, where the PMI rose to 51.2 from 48.0 in August, also marking the sector’s first expansion since December 2025. Meanwhile, manufacturing growth slowed, with the PMI falling to 50.6 from 51.1. Output expanded despite weak demand and employment growth. However, new orders and workforce numbers both declined marginally during the month. Business expectations also softened, reflecting weaker sentiment among services firms. At the same time, price pressures intensified amid elevated global oil and gas prices.