Estonian retail trade increased 4.5 percent year-on-year in July 2019, accelerating from a 2.5 percent gain in the prior month. This was the highest growth in retail trade since April, as sales growth accelerated for: other specialised stores (7.4 percent from 7.0 percent in June); household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials (4.5 percent vs 3.4 percent), and pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics (7.2 percent vs 2.5 percent). In addition, sales rebounded for both automotive fuel (1.8 percent vs -1.8 percent) and second-hand goods and in stalls, markets, direct sale (2.0 percent vs -1.3 percent). Meantime, sales growth slowed for textiles, clothing and footwear (3.3 percent vs 11.8 percent). Conversely, sales of food, beverages and tobacco fell (-3.4 percent vs 12.6 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade rose 4.6 percent, after a 1.1 percent fall in June. Retail Sales YoY in Estonia averaged 5.18 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -21.60 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Estonia is expected to be 1.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Estonia to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Estonia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.