Estonian retail trade increased 3 percent year-on-year in October 2018, accelerating from a downwardly revised 2 percent rise in the prior month. It is the highest annual gain in retail sales since June, when sales fell by 2 percent. Sales rose faster for: household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials (9 pct vs 4 pct in September); pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics (14 pct vs 11 pct) while sales of second-hand goods rebounded (5 pct vs -4 pct). Sales were unchanged for both other specialized stores (at 20 pct) and retail sales via mail order houses or via internet (at 9 pct). Meanwhile, sales continued to fall for: food, beverages and tobacco (-16 pct vs -11 pct) and automotive fuel (-8 pct vs -6 pct); and sales dropped for textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (-8 pct vs 2 pct). On a monthly basis, retail sales surged by 4 percent, after a 5 percent decline in September. Retail Sales YoY in Estonia averaged 5.23 percent from 1999 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 25 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -21 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Estonia is expected to be 1.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Estonia to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Estonia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.