Estonia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Estonia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Estonia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.20 6.2 5.9 6.6 6.9 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.20 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -159.24 -113 -117 -116 -116 -111 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 9.50 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.3 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 1191.07 1200 1190 1180 1170 1030 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20 4.8 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 23.14 26.65 24.52 24.15 23.77 31.14 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 4688.12 4875 4616 4772 4626 4715 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1098.31 1215 1084 1204 1113 1130 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 17853.40 18110 18400 18400 18400 19200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 27735.14 27837 27776 27716 27655 26886 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 148.95 160 104 61.45 126 145 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 313.89 252 212 268 301 260 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 664.20 681 637 682 661 663 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 98.92 84.4 77.7 75.8 80.46 76.01 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 65.45 61.64 53.68 56.49 63.11 59.02 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 346.74 318 312 325 327 315 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.20 6.2 5.9 6.6 6.9 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 666.60 670 669 671 673 676 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 29.63 30.54 31.93 33.14 34.15 37.75 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.43 2.64 2.9 3.07 4.06 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.00 13.61 13.75 14.35 14.74 17.1 percent [+]
Labour Costs 128.93 126 126 127 127 125 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5.29 5.13 5 4.87 4.75 3.98 Thousand [+]
Wages 1201.27 1277 1230 1296 1246 1305 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 1162.55 1230 1189 1245 1203 1236 EUR/Month [+]
Wage Growth 6.80 7.34 7.58 7.84 8.08 8.47 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 470.00 450 486 503 503 500 EUR/Month [+]
Population 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.70 62 62.5 62.75 63 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.00 70.82 70.8 71.41 71.38 70.88 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 59.80 58.09 57.58 57.46 57.11 54.28 Thousand [+]
Productivity 113.00 111 104 111 110 109 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -0.50 0.9 0.1 1.2 -0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Employment Rate 66.30 66.3 66.7 66.61 66.46 66.57 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 559.20 553 557 557 551 546 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.20 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.8 1.59 1.58 2.37 0.6 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.16 106 106 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 204.16 205 206 206 206 205 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.27 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.3 2.39 2.48 3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 123.55 124 125 126 126 127 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 111.54 117 119 119 112 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.70 4.9 3.7 3.7 5.22 2.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 333.95 335 335 334 334 331 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 141.88 142 142 142 141 139 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 185.18 186 187 186 186 184 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.80 8.09 8.25 7.95 7.51 5.94 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 11748.00 11872 11974 12010 12016 11893 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 14315.00 14376 14429 14444 14443 14344 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 24429.80 24434 24409 24373 24335 23991 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 6970.50 6493 6056 5664 5328 3982 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 194.69 194 193 193 193 181 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7149714.20 6909075 6961560 6901590 6939463 6811999 EUR Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -159.24 -113 -117 -116 -116 -111 EUR Million [+]
Exports 1136.06 1065 1062 1059 1054 1018 EUR Million [+]
Imports 1295.30 1182 1176 1172 1167 1127 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 241.40 134 110 95.61 90.8 38.66 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1 percent [+]
External Debt 19087.40 18820 18762 18695 18623 17949 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 212.50 228 210 210 192 136 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 370.10 225 196 204 184 186 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 91.90 83.2 63.81 60.83 63.53 70.68 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.46 0.41 0.35 0.29 0.23 0.41 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 9.50 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.3 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.30 0.6 1 1 1 1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -11.88 4.55 -0.08 0.34 0.02 0.12 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 771.56 943 813 912 775 922 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 40.40 38.58 38.43 38.28 38.13 37.77 percent [+]
Government Revenues 662.84 613 613 608 602 558 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 674.72 597 593 586 580 525 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 493.80 498 496 494 491 463 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 15.00 10.48 9.58 9.07 8.78 8.39 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 108.20 108 108 107 106 104 [+]
Industrial Production 6.20 4.4 6.28 6.3 6.28 1.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.80 2.1 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.7 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.10 7.56 7.79 7.4 6.97 5.45 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.80 73.78 73.9 73.74 73.18 70.18 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 170.72 27.57 118 -41.93 106 13.19 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 2107.00 2029 1944 1867 1802 1499 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 11556.01 11327 11215 11100 10981 9903 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 539972.00 544089 533411 535608 538278 512049 IP [+]
Mining Production 19.80 15.58 11.61 9.24 7.64 4.96 percent [+]
Cement Production 49.80 47.24 45.33 45.18 45.44 45.72 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.85 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.86 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 29.00 28 28 28 28 33 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 12.00 13 14 15 16 20 [+]
Electricity Production 952.00 975 989 989 987 987 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corporate Profits 827002.30 613772 603695 654153 649038 618492 EUR Thousand [+]
Corruption Index 70.00 69 69 69 69 67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 26 26 27 28 29 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -0.90 -1.2 -2.32 -3.25 -4.03 -7.25 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 4.00 18 0.6 0.51 0.45 10 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.00 5 2.47 2.82 3.1 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 2489.70 2544 2496 2527 2489 2480 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 8.77 7.48 7.42 7.36 7.3 7.41 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 8160.10 8254 8379 8488 8580 8777 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.22 3.26 3.28 3.3 3.47 percent [+]
Households Debt To Income 70.87 70.08 69.13 68.19 67.25 58.27 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.45 1.48 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.4 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 108.42 104 99.94 95.8 91.49 73.02 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 1820.00 1607 1604 1721 1678 1434 [+]
Construction Output 25.40 6.63 7.91 8.18 8.23 6.83 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 81.50 81.86 81.94 82.02 82.1 82.94 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 21 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 21 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 35.40 34.86 34.93 34.99 35.06 35.28 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 33.80 33.38 33.44 33.49 33.55 33.86 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.60 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.5 1.53 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 59.00 55.96 55.96 55.96 55.96 55.96 mm [+]
Temperature 2.00 2.91 4.58 8.3 6.67 4.53 celsius [+]