Estonia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Estonia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Estonia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.9 6.6 6.9 6 5.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.50 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -195.42 -151 -145 -142 -139 -120 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 9.50 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.3 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.24
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 1270.59
points
1246 1223 1200 1177 1011
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20
percent
4.7 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.2
GDP 23.14
USD Billion
21.9 22.9 23.9 28.45 31.14
GDP Constant Prices 4688.12
EUR Million
4616 4772 4626 4785 4693
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1098.31
EUR Million
1084 1204 1113 1183 1111
GDP per capita 17853.40
USD
18400 18400 18400 18400 19200
GDP per capita PPP 27735.14
USD
27323 27494 27665 27837 26521
GDP From Agriculture 148.95
EUR Million
104 61.45 126 159 135
GDP From Construction 313.89
EUR Million
212 268 301 257 259
GDP From Manufacturing 664.20
EUR Million
637 682 661 680 658
GDP From Mining 98.92
EUR Million
77.7 75.8 80.46 79.96 76.01
GDP From Services 65.45
EUR Million
53.68 56.49 63.11 60.68 59.02
GDP From Transport 346.74
EUR Million
312 325 327 319 312
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30
percent
5.9 6.6 6.9 6 5.5
Employed Persons 667.40
Thousand
666 668 670 670 675
Unemployed Persons 33.27
Thousand
35.61 37.55 38.42 38.77 38.59
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00
percent
2.27 2.46 2.63 2.85 4.07
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.80
percent
9.28 9.63 10.49 11.14 15.75
Labour Costs 126.69
Index Points
126 126 126 126 124
Job Vacancies 4.28
Thousand
4.4 4.26 4.17 4.09 3.49
Wages 1201.27
EUR/Month
1230 1296 1246 1305 1296
Wages in Manufacturing 1162.55
EUR/Month
1189 1245 1203 1250 1222
Wage Growth 7.30
percent
7.86 8.28 8.46 8.74 7.98
Minimum Wages 500.00
EUR/Month
500 500 500 500 590
Population 1.32
Million
1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.33
Retirement Age Women 62.70
62 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.20
percent
71.86 71.78 71.89 71.9 71.5
Part Time Employment 58.80
Thousand
57.64 57.51 57.2 56.75 53.43
Productivity 113.00
Index Points
104 111 112 111 110
Employment Change 1.30
percent
0.1 1.2 -0.2 0.5 0.5
Employment Rate 68.40
percent
68.14 68.39 68.53 68.41 68.24
Full Time Employment 572.60
Thousand
569 566 567 563 548
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.50
percent
3.6 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.7 0.6
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.15
Index Points
105 104 104 104 103
Consumer Price Index CPI 204.33
Index Points
205 206 206 206 204
Core Consumer Prices 103.06
Index Points
103 102 102 102 101
Core Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
1.77 1.85 1.96 2.08 2.92
GDP Deflator 123.55
Index Points
125 126 126 127 127
Producer Prices 111.16
Index Points
119 119 111 122 132
Producer Prices Change 2.70
percent
3.7 3.7 2.87 3.4 2.9
Export Prices 332.29
Index Points
331 331 331 330 326
Import Prices 142.87
Index Points
143 143 142 142 139
CPI Transportation 186.31
Index Points
187 186 186 186 183
Food Inflation 5.70
percent
5 4.8 4.5 4 5
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Money Supply M1 12321.00
EUR Million
12726 12923 13004 13031 12854
Money Supply M2 14706.00
EUR Million
14954 15056 15092 15099 14963
Banks Balance Sheet 24727.10
EUR Million
24783 24790 24771 24743 24304
Loans to Private Sector 7078.20
EUR Million
7154 7190 7204 7204 6884
Private Debt to GDP 184.53
percent
184 183 183 183 166
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7149714.20
EUR Thousand
6961560 6901590 6939463 6897345 6765828
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -195.42
EUR Million
-151 -145 -142 -139 -120
Exports 1011.69
EUR Million
1070 1050 1047 1043 994
Imports 1207.12
EUR Million
1225 1215 1210 1206 1152
Current Account 241.40
EUR Million
166 136 147 147 64.2
Current Account to GDP 2.70
percent
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1
External Debt 19087.40
EUR Million
19079 19071 19039 18995 18198
Capital Flows 212.50
EUR Million
210 210 192 189 117
Foreign Direct Investment 437.10
EUR Million
229 195 233 213 181
Remittances 91.60
EUR Million
87.43 90.68 90.66 91.9 89.15
Gold Reserves 0.25
Tonnes
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Terrorism Index 0.46
0.37 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.22
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 9.50
percent
8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.3
Government Budget 0.30
percent of GDP
1 1 1 1 1.5
Government Budget Value -4.39
EUR Million
8.22 -0.56 0.33 0.09 0.19
Government Spending 771.56
EUR Million
813 912 775 934 917
Government Spending to GDP 40.40
percent
39.6 39.26 38.92 38.58 37.35
Government Revenues 1022.76
EUR Million
800 812 820 811 743
Fiscal Expenditure 1164.34
EUR Million
826 842 821 819 727
Military Expenditure 493.80
USD Million
488 492 495 498 452
Asylum Applications 5.00
persons
8.36 8.36 8.33 8.31 8.28
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 107.30
Index Points
107 106 105 105 103
Industrial Production 7.10
percent
7.03 6.79 6.63 3.5 1.8
Industrial Production Mom 2.50
percent
0.53 0.51 0.46 1.5 0.7
Manufacturing Production 7.00
percent
6.95 6.6 6.29 6.05 5.22
Capacity Utilization 75.50
percent
73.97 75.49 75.31 74.94 70.56
Changes in Inventories 170.72
EUR Million
118 -41.93 106 9.12 18.71
Car Registrations 2504.00
2127 2046 1955 1881 1484
Internet Speed 11556.01
KBps
11215 11100 10981 10857 9903
IP Addresses 539972.00
IP
533411 535608 538278 531451 501340
Mining Production 8.20
percent
8.23 7.27 6.29 5.68 4.73
Cement Production 39.20
Thousands of Tonnes
39.38 42.68 44.73 45.46 45.41
Competitiveness Index 4.85
Points
4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.83
Competitiveness Rank 29.00
28 28 28 28 33
Ease of Doing Business 12.00
14 14 15 16 21
Electricity Production 1131.00
Gigawatt-hour
1026 982 983 991 992
Corporate Profits 787217.60
EUR Thousand
680996 744344 698454 655828 639603
Corruption Index 70.00
Points
69 69 69 69 66
Corruption Rank 22.00
25 25 25 26 29
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -6.80
Index Points
-7.22 -7.56 -7.72 -7.85 -8.41
Retail Sales MoM 18.00
percent
1.07 0.34 0.17 15 10
Retail Sales YoY 1.00
percent
1.33 1.73 2.12 3 2
Consumer Spending 2489.70
EUR Million
2496 2527 2489 2514 2465
Personal Savings 11.28
percent
11.26 11.02 10.79 10.55 9.08
Consumer Credit 8241.80
EUR Million
8353 8447 8526 8590 8410
Bank Lending Rate 3.27
percent
3.31 3.32 3.34 3.36 3.58
Households Debt To Income 69.65
percent
68.91 67.79 66.67 65.54 54.75
Gasoline Prices 1.59
USD/Liter
1.63 1.63 1.63 1.62 1.53
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 112.06
Index Points
110 108 105 101 75.29
Building Permits 2297.00
1865 1950 1746 1936 1515
Construction Output 27.30
percent
28.29 25.39 22.22 17.74 7.95
Home Ownership Rate 81.40
percent
81.78 81.76 81.73 81.71 82.68
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 21
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 35.40
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 33.80
percent
33.95 33.95 33.95 33.95 33.98
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.60
percent
1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.64
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 59.97
mm
34.7 47.42 72.59 55.08 53.61
Temperature 2.29
celsius
-5.34 9.53 14.97 0.27 4.96