Estonia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Estonia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Estonia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.00 6.2 5.9 6.6 6.9 5.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.70 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -115.19 -134 -134 -132 -130 -119 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 9.50 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.3 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 1235.00 1200 1190 1180 1170 1030 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70 4.8 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 23.14 26.65 24.52 24.15 23.77 31.14 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 4821.30 4792 4500 4734 4524 4646 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1282.16 1201 1070 1203 1095 1118 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 17853.40 18110 18400 18400 18400 19200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 27735.14 27837 27776 27716 27655 26886 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 50.91 148 110 60.75 94.82 116 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 284.91 239 214 263 276 244 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 739.31 699 656 689 679 677 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 58.84 58.3 57.97 57.47 57.05 53.8 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 56.34 58.44 53.52 56.06 60.05 56.57 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 333.70 303 306 315 312 304 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.00 6.2 5.9 6.6 6.9 5.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 653.50 650 652 652 652 658 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 28.86 28.92 29.9 31.15 32.37 37.36 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.90 2.5 2.72 2.98 3.14 4.09 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.80 13.72 13.85 14.45 14.82 17.15 percent [+]
Labour Costs 128.93 126 126 127 127 125 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5.49 5.31 5.16 5.02 4.89 4.07 Thousand [+]
Wages 1242.17 1283 1242 1307 1262 1322 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 1199.52 1236 1200 1255 1217 1251 EUR/Month [+]
Wage Growth 7.00 7.34 7.58 7.84 8.08 8.47 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 470.00 450 486 503 503 500 EUR/Month [+]
Population 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.70 62.39 62.6 62.7 62.81 63.01 [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Employment Change -0.50 0.9 0.1 1.2 -0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Employment Rate 66.30 66.3 66.7 66.61 66.46 66.57 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 557.90 553 557 557 551 546 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 58.50 57.29 56.92 56.21 55.7 53.23 Thousand [+]
Productivity 113.60 111 104 111 110 109 Index Points [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.00 70.41 70.69 71.22 70.99 70.58 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.70 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.8 0.95 0.83 1.5 0.6 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.56 106 106 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 203.65 204 204 204 204 202 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.27 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 2.2 2.3 2.39 2.48 3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 120.63 121 121 122 122 121 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 111.04 117 119 119 113 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.70 4.9 3.7 3.7 5.21 2.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 331.86 333 333 333 332 329 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 140.29 140 140 139 139 137 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 181.98 182 181 181 181 178 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.80 5.56 5.47 5.48 5.53 5.75 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 11466.00 11434 11419 11403 11387 11242 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 14170.00 14189 14194 14188 14179 14072 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 24718.10 24956 25038 25060 25051 24734 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7542.90 7466 7404 7342 7279 6724 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7149714.20 6909075 6961560 6901590 6939463 6811999 EUR Thousand [+]
Private Debt to GDP 194.69 194 193 193 193 181 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -115.19 -134 -134 -132 -130 -119 EUR Million [+]
Exports 1109.47 1073 1072 1069 1064 1027 EUR Million [+]
Imports 1224.65 1204 1200 1196 1191 1150 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 108.10 134 110 95.61 90.8 38.66 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1 percent [+]
External Debt 18942.90 18820 18762 18695 18623 17949 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 265.20 251 229 223 214 151 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 391.70 225 196 204 184 186 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 91.20 83.2 63.81 60.83 63.53 70.68 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.10 0.41 0.35 0.29 0.23 0.41 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 9.50 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.3 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.30 0.6 1 1 1 1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 15.80 -0.19 0.15 0.12 0 0.02 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 907.56 943 813 913 772 921 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 40.40 38.58 38.43 38.28 38.13 37.77 percent [+]
Government Revenues 607.44 614 614 609 603 559 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 591.64 629 617 611 603 546 EUR Million [+]
Asylum Applications 10.00 10.48 9.58 9.07 8.78 8.39 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 493.80 498 496 494 491 463 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 108.60 108 108 107 106 104 [+]
Industrial Production 4.60 4.4 3.48 4 4.45 1.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 2.1 0.34 0.4 0.42 0.7 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 10.10 8.31 7.67 7.16 6.76 5.47 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 73.90 73.73 72.73 72.31 71.76 69.29 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -89.25 25.22 102 -22.57 46.41 18.04 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 1975.00 1877 1809 1749 1697 1464 Cars [+]
Cement Production 57.20 52.95 48.6 46.39 45.75 45.94 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.85 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.86 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 29.00 28 28 28 28 33 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 12.00 15 16 17 18 21 [+]
Electricity Production 986.00 975 989 989 987 987 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corporate Profits 632739.60 613772 603695 654153 649038 618492 EUR Thousand [+]
Corruption Index 70.00 69 69 69 69 67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 26 26 27 28 29 [+]
Mining Production 95.50 32.43 26.58 20.8 16.62 6.82 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 0.50 -0.76 -1.92 -2.9 -3.73 -7.16 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.00 18 0.46 0.44 0.44 10 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.00 5 2.38 2.7 2.99 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 2524.00 2526 2465 2508 2462 2458 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 8.77 7.48 7.42 7.36 7.3 7.41 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 8063.60 8343 8529 8696 8843 9419 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.13 3.16 3.18 3.2 3.22 3.39 percent [+]
Households Debt To Income 70.87 70.08 69.13 68.19 67.25 58.27 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.37 1.31 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 108.42 104 99.94 95.8 91.49 73.02 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 2066.00 1563 1565 1709 1620 1405 [+]
Construction Output 4.70 6.63 7.91 8.18 8.23 6.83 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 81.50 81.86 81.94 82.02 82.1 82.94 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 19.98 20.04 20.07 20.1 20.56 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 19.97 19.99 20.02 20.04 20.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.85 19.58 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 35.40 34.86 34.93 34.99 35.06 35.28 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 33.80 33.38 33.44 33.49 33.55 33.86 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.60 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.5 1.53 percent [+]