Estonia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Estonia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Estonia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.30 6.6 6.9 6 5.8 5.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -92.68 -150 -70 -210 -210 -70 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 9.50 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.3 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.23
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 1256.48
points
1235 1207 1180 1153 1052
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20
percent
0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.00
percent
4.2 4.1 3.8 4.7 3.2
GDP 23.14
USD Billion
23.8 24.55 28.45 29.87 31.14
GDP Constant Prices 4965.40
EUR Million
4920 4784 5154 4583 5511
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1322.30
EUR Million
1311 1121 1373 1105 1467
GDP per capita 17853.40
USD
18400 18400 18400 18800 19200
GDP per capita PPP 27735.14
USD
27703 28022 28342 28406 28510
GDP From Agriculture 155.87
EUR Million
52.48 151 162 103 173
GDP From Construction 282.67
EUR Million
292 320 293 207 314
GDP From Manufacturing 673.47
EUR Million
754 678 699 660 747
GDP From Mining 76.67
EUR Million
60.08 101 79.58 63.79 85.08
GDP From Services 58.28
EUR Million
57.52 66.79 60.49 54.84 64.68
GDP From Transport 313.68
EUR Million
340 354 326 302 348
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30
percent
6.6 6.9 6 5.8 5.5
Employed Persons 667.40
Thousand
663 663 663 663 663
Unemployed Persons 33.27
Thousand
32.23 29.66 29.44 31.41 31.66
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00
percent
2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90
percent
10.8 14.37 16.08 15.77 13.17
Labour Costs 128.48
Index Points
128 127 128 127 128
Job Vacancies 4.81
Thousand
4.14 4.06 3.99 3.92 3.44
Wages 1270.53
EUR/Month
1330 1300 1350 1330 1500
Wages in Manufacturing 1199.01
EUR/Month
1250 1200 1240 1220 1450
Wage Growth 7.30
percent
7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05
Minimum Wages 500.00
EUR/Month
500 500 500 540 590
Population 1.32
Million
1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.33
Retirement Age Women 63.50
63.5 63.5 63.5 63.75 64
Retirement Age Men 63.50
63.5 63.5 63.5 63.75 64
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.20
percent
72.07 72.05 72.06 72.05 72.05
Part Time Employment 61.70
Thousand
58.74 58.19 58.67 58.51 54.96
Productivity 113.80
Index Points
114 113 114 113 114
Employment Change 1.60
percent
1.2 -0.2 0.5 0.89 0.5
Employment Rate 68.40
percent
67.95 67.89 67.91 67.9 67.9
Full Time Employment 573.90
Thousand
569 569 569 569 569
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent
3.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.18 0.16 0.7 0.17 0.6
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.44
Index Points
108 109 108 109 113
Consumer Price Index CPI 206.35
Index Points
208 209 209 212 219
Core Consumer Prices 103.22
Index Points
105 106 105 105 110
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent
1.22 1.35 1.5 1.65 2.67
GDP Deflator 123.72
Index Points
123 123 123 123 123
Producer Prices 112.28
Index Points
112 114 114 115 119
Producer Prices Change 2.70
percent
2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2
Export Prices 330.77
Index Points
332 331 332 332 332
Import Prices 143.57
Index Points
143 143 143 142 142
CPI Transportation 185.41
Index Points
188 187 191 196 200
Food Inflation 3.90
percent
4.8 4.5 4 4.3 5
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0.25 0.25 0.75
Money Supply M1 12279.00
EUR Million
12303 12303 12294 12282 12114
Money Supply M2 14624.00
EUR Million
14307 14179 14181 14230 14249
Banks Balance Sheet 25067.30
EUR Million
25115 24730 24605 24542 24732
Loans to Private Sector 7197.80
EUR Million
7366 7317 7289 7303 7306
Private Debt to GDP 184.53
percent
186 186 185 185 183
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8430312.70
EUR Thousand
7788475 7628931 7779338 7674259 7562177
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -92.68
EUR Million
-150 -70 -210 -210 -70
Exports 1116.49
EUR Million
1190 1220 1150 1340 1540
Imports 1209.17
EUR Million
1340 1290 1360 1550 1610
Current Account 274.20
EUR Million
168 170 180 171 89.95
Current Account to GDP 2.70
percent
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1
External Debt 19212.40
EUR Million
19260 19264 19243 19210 18524
Capital Flows 540.60
EUR Million
382 288 338 311 320
Foreign Direct Investment 437.10
EUR Million
195 233 213 206 181
Remittances 91.60
EUR Million
91.8 91.8 91.8 91.8 91.8
Gold Reserves 0.25
Tonnes
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Terrorism Index 0.46
0.31 0.25 0.18 0.16 0.22
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 9.50
percent
8.9 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.3
Government Budget 0.30
percent of GDP
1 1 1 0.82 1.5
Government Budget Value -43.80
EUR Million
37.32 -25.26 -13.01 -26.15 49.06
Government Spending 967.98
EUR Million
925 787 1005 853 1074
Government Spending to GDP 40.40
percent
39.26 38.92 38.58 38.43 37.35
Government Revenues 716.63
EUR Million
888 807 812 794 787
Fiscal Expenditure 760.43
EUR Million
851 832 830 820 738
Military Expenditure 493.80
USD Million
500 501 501 501 506
Asylum Applications 5.00
persons
7.59 7.84 7.98 8.07 8.17
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 106.70
Index Points
107 107 107 107 107
Industrial Production 1.80
percent
2.8 2.59 3.5 2.22 1.8
Industrial Production Mom -2.60
percent
0.42 0.4 1.5 0.39 0.7
Manufacturing Production 0.30
percent
1.09 0.35 -0.29 -0.75 -1.53
Capacity Utilization 75.50
percent
74.56 75.2 74.76 75.07 74.94
Changes in Inventories 152.93
EUR Million
102 84.57 92.36 88.92 89.98
Car Registrations 2333.00
2249 2194 2191 2189 2190
Internet Speed 11556.01
KBps
12826 13041 13249 13449 15283
IP Addresses 539972.00
IP
529159 544478 545703 538139 550318
Mining Production 5.20
percent
4.32 4.62 4.74 4.7 4.7
Cement Production 31.00
Thousands of Tonnes
54.2 51.05 37.24 34.01 40.19
Competitiveness Index 4.85
Points
4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81
Competitiveness Rank 29.00
28 28 28 30 33
Ease of Doing Business 12.00
12 12 12 12 12
Electricity Production 1090.00
Gigawatt-hour
1057 1104 1049 1079 1073
Corporate Profits 787217.60
EUR Thousand
807110 807110 807110 807110 807110
Corruption Index 71.00
Points
71 71 71 71 71
Corruption Rank 21.00
21 21 21 21 21
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -0.60
Index Points
-1.72 -1.26 -1.13 -1.05 -0.92
Retail Sales MoM -5.00
percent
-0.96 0.4 15 0.54 10
Retail Sales YoY 3.00
percent
2.78 3.07 3 3.53 2
Consumer Spending 2529.80
EUR Million
2565 2539 2626 2510 2808
Personal Savings 11.28
percent
11.02 10.79 10.55 10.4 9.08
Consumer Credit 8294.00
EUR Million
8367 8405 8430 8442 7934
Bank Lending Rate 3.40
percent
3.2 3.23 3.18 3.22 3.21
Households Debt To Income 69.65
percent
71.42 71.67 71.92 72.63 81.74
Gasoline Prices 1.54
USD/Liter
1.36 1.27 1.19 1.36 0.8
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 113.49
Index Points
110 110 110 110 110
Building Permits 2297.00
2211 1838 2151 1889 2026
Construction Output 22.00
percent
23.92 23.95 23.94 23.94 23.94
Home Ownership Rate 81.40
percent
81.96 81.78 81.59 81.57 81.58
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 35.40
percent
35.4 35.4 35.4 35 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 33.80
percent
33.95 33.95 33.95 33.85 33.98
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.60
percent
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 59.97
mm
47.42 72.59 55.08 34.77 53.61
Temperature 2.29
celsius
9.53 14.97 0.27 -5.35 4.96