Croatia’s gross domestic product advanced 2.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and easing from a 2.8 percent growth in the previous period. It was the smallest pace of expansion since the last quarter of 2017, mainly due to a slowdown in government spending (2.3 percent from 3.9 percent in Q3). In addition, exports went up 1.3 percent (from 3.7 percent in Q3) while imports advanced at a much faster 6.6 percent (from 5.1 percent in Q3). On the other hand, households’ consumption (3.9 percent from 2.7 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (6.1 percent from 3.7 percent) rose faster. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP edged up 0.1 percent, the weakest growth since the flat reading in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared to a 0.6 percent gain in Q3. Considering full 2018, the economy expanded 2.6 percent, after a 2.9 percent growth in 2017. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Croatia averaged 1.89 percent from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in the second quarter of 2003 and a record low of -8.60 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Croatia is expected to be 2.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Croatia to stand at 2.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Croatia GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.