TSX Futures Rise as Oil Gains Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose more than 0.5% to trade above 36,000 on Tuesday as oil prices extended their losses ahead of potential US-Iran talks at this week’s UN meeting. Iran reportedly offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US takes initial steps to ease military pressure. The pullback in the oil rally, which has fueled inflationary pressures and prompted major central banks to raise interest rates, lent support to credit-sensitive stocks. RBC, TD Bank, and Scotiabank gained nearly 0.5%. On the other hand, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned on Monday that US tariffs could push fourth-quarter growth below 1%, adding that future rate decisions will need to balance slowing growth against surging energy costs stemming from the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, miners were mostly higher despite wavering gold prices, with Agnico Eagle and Barrick gaining about 1%. In contrast, energy producers posted losses amid falling oil prices.

Futures tracking Canadian stocks inched higher on Tuesday as oil prices extended their losses ahead of potential US-Iran talks at this week’s UN meeting. Iran reportedly offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US takes initial steps to ease military pressure. The pullback in the oil rally, which has fueled inflationary pressures and prompted major central banks to raise interest rates, lent support to credit-sensitive stocks. On the other hand, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned on Monday that US tariffs could push fourth-quarter growth below 1%, adding that future rate decisions will need to balance slowing growth against surging energy costs stemming from the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, gold prices edged lower, pressuring miners.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.6% to close at 36,009 on Monday, supported by gains among major banks. Oil prices fell on hopes for diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to attend the UN General Assembly this week, and US President Donald Trump said he would be open to meeting him. Yields eased as the halt in the oil rally cooled inflation concerns, supporting credit-sensitive shares. Major banks rose, with RBC (+1.8%), TD Bank (+1.5%), BMO (+1.8%), Scotiabank (+1.7%), and CIBC (+1.4%). BoC Governor Macklem said monetary policy cannot reverse tariffs or change gasoline prices, while the BoC must assess their lasting effects on inflation and growth. Energy shares fell, with Canadian Natural (-2.2%) and Suncor (-2.7%). Miners also declined, with WPM losing 1.6%.