TSX Futures Dip as Middle East Conflict Drives Global Selloff

Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index plunged over 2.5% to below the 33,650 on Tuesday, driven by a global flight from risk as the escalating Middle East conflict threatens a massive inflationary shock to the world economy. While the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and strikes on Persian Gulf energy hubs sent Brent crude soaring over 7%, the resulting spike in bond yields has hammered interest-sensitive sectors. Canada’s major lenders, including RBC and TD Bank, dropped nearly 2% as rising credit costs overshadowed the boost to energy giants like Suncor and Enbridge. The rout extended heavily into the mining sector, where Agnico Eagle and Wheaton Precious Metals fell over 6% tracking bullion prices lower. Tech heavyweight Shopify also slid over 3%, reflecting broader pressure on high-growth names.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell on Tuesday as a global stock selloff deepened amid a widening Middle East conflict. Iran targeted energy infrastructure in UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, and announced it would strike vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, triggering surges in energy commodities that fueled inflation concerns. Banks led the losses amid the plunge in Canadian bonds and its impact on credit activity, with RBC, TD Bank, and BMO set to open lower. Energy stocks gained support from higher oil prices. On Monday's after-hours trading, Capstone Copper reported Q4 profit below estimates.

Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index staged a late-day comeback to close 0.6% higher at 34,441 on Monday, defying an early global sell-off. While Middle East warfare initially rattled nerves, the index was lifted by a powerful surge in energy and industrial sectors. Cameco was a standout performer, rocketing 6.5% following a 2.6 billion dollar uranium deal with India signed during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to New Delhi. Energy heavyweights like Suncor and Cenovus gained over 2.5% as crude prices remained elevated despite coming off session highs. Further support came from a late rebound in the financial sector, with RBC and TD Bank erasing early losses to finish in positive territory. Additionally, the manufacturing sector showed resilience as the February PMI hit a 13-month high of 51. Although Shopify and some miners like Barrick Gold ended lower, the TSX benefited from a broader "buy the dip" move that mirrored a dramatic recovery on Wall Street.