TSX Futures Recover After One-Month Low

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose around 0.3% to cross the 32,900 mark on Wednesday as global markets rallied following continued signals of de-escalation in the Middle East. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, suggesting direct engagement could soon restore regional stability. Oil prices dropped, which eased inflation concerns and supported financial heavyweights like RBC and TD Bank, both gaining nearly 1%. While falling energy costs weighed on producers such as Canadian Natural Resources (-2.9%) and Imperial Oil (-1.5%) , the broader market benefited from lower bond yields and a softer US dollar. Gold prices continued to climb, boosting mining stocks with Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, and Wheaton Precious adding around 2%. After logging a 4.6% decline in March, the TSX started Q2 on a positive note while extending its streak of seven consecutive quarterly gains through the end of March.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index were higher on Wednesday as global markets rallied after US President Trump signaled a possible swift resolution to the Middle East conflict. On Tuesday, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated the conflict with Iran may be nearing an end, hinting at direct engagement with Iranian leaders and a de-escalation of hostilities even without a formal agreement. Oil prices, which had rallied since the conflict began, fell sharply, easing fears of energy-driven stagflation. Lower bond yields reduced worries over credit activity and supported financial stocks, while lower oil prices weighed on energy producers. Meanwhile, gold extended its climb as the dollar softened following Trump's de-escalation signals, lifting mining stocks. Furthermore, the TSX logged a 4.6% decline in March, its steepest monthly drop since May 2023, though it ended the first quarter up 3.3%, extending its run of quarterly gains to seven.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index surged 2.6% to close at 32,768 on Tuesday as a wave of optimism regarding a potential diplomatic end to the Middle East conflict sparked a broad rally in risk assets. While the benchmark recovered significant ground in the final session it concluded March with a decline of 4.6% marked by the fifth consecutive week of war-related volatility. The technology sector notably underperformed during the quarter with the info tech subindex tumbling over 26% as capital rotated into energy producers amid soaring crude prices. Tech darling Shopify saw a daily gain of 6%, yet remains down nearly 30% for the year due to AI-related disruption fears and the ongoing regional instability. Domestic sentiment drew additional support from preliminary GDP data reflecting a third consecutive monthly expansion in February alongside strong gains in the financial sector. Royal Bank of Canada and TD Bank rose 2.3% and 1.9% respectively while Agnico Eagle Mines surged 5.8%.