Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Climbs Past 3.48%

2026-03-20 13:16 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond climbed past 3.48% amid persistent global inflationary pressures and a hawkish shift in North American interest rate expectations.

While headline inflation in Canada decelerated more than anticipated to 1.8% in February and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% following a loss of 83,900 jobs, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18th and warned of heightened uncertainty.

At the same time, the US February PPI and a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, drove 10-year Treasury notes to August 2025 highs amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Although markets previously prioritized a widening output gap and cooling food costs, the ongoing risk of energy supply disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz has maintained volatility in benchmark rates.

The 10-year benchmark is now following a broader rise in global yields as investors brace for one rate cut at most this year from major central banks.



News Stream
Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Climbs Past 3.48%
The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond climbed past 3.48% amid persistent global inflationary pressures and a hawkish shift in North American interest rate expectations. While headline inflation in Canada decelerated more than anticipated to 1.8% in February and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% following a loss of 83,900 jobs, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18th and warned of heightened uncertainty. At the same time, the US February PPI and a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, drove 10-year Treasury notes to August 2025 highs amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Although markets previously prioritized a widening output gap and cooling food costs, the ongoing risk of energy supply disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz has maintained volatility in benchmark rates. The 10-year benchmark is now following a broader rise in global yields as investors brace for one rate cut at most this year from major central banks.
2026-03-20
Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Recovers
The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond recovered toward the 3.4% mark as persistent inflationary pressures in the US and mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove a broader repricing of global interest rate expectations. This recovery follows a sharp 0.7% surge in the US February Producer Price Index which pushed Treasury yields and US dollar higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. While domestic headline inflation eased to 1.8% and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% in its March meeting and warned of heightened uncertainty. The Governing Council noted that strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tilted risks toward structurally higher costs. Consequently, the 10-year yield is tracking a more restrictive global outlook as markets assess the economic fallout from the escalating conflict.
2026-03-18
Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Drops From June Highs
The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond fell toward 3.44% on Monday as cooling domestic inflation and signs of economic slack reinforced expectations for a stable Bank of Canada policy path. Headline inflation decelerated more than anticipated to 1.8% in February which marks the softest rate since last summer and brings price growth back in line with the midpoint of the central bank target. This disinflationary trend follows a sharp contraction in the domestic labor market where the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% alongside a loss of 83,900 jobs. While global energy prices remain a risk factor the yield is retreating from July highs as investors prioritize evidence of a widening output gap over Middle Eastern supply concerns. Markets are now pricing in a cautious stance from the Bank of Canada ahead of its March 18 meeting with the 10-year benchmark finding support from a broader easing in global Treasury yields.
2026-03-16