Australia Leading Index Stable in June

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index was flat in June 2026, following a revised 0.1% fall in May, with the underlying index showing signs of stabilisation after most of the weakness emerged in the first three months of the year. Meanwhile, the six-month annualised growth rate fell to -0.36% from -0.25% in May, marking the sixth consecutive below-trend reading and the weakest pace since late 2023. The latest reading points to slowing economic momentum, reflecting the lagged impact of the RBA’s rate hikes in February, March, and May, along with earlier fuel price shocks linked to geopolitical tensions. A narrowing yield spread was the largest contributor to the deterioration, while weaker dwelling approvals, consumer expectations, and hours worked also weighed on the index. However, renewed inflation risks and Middle East tensions could weigh on growth ahead. The RBA will focus on the June quarter CPI report ahead of its August meeting.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index was flat month-over-month in May 2026 after an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in the previous month, underscoring weak momentum. Meanwhile, the six-month annualised growth rate edged to -0.17% from -0.18% in April, signalling below-trend growth likely through late 2026 into early 2027. While no sharp downturn is evident, the drag from higher rates and elevated fuel costs is expected to build gradually. At its June meeting, the Reserve Bank paused to gauge the impact of earlier hikes and the energy shock but warned inflation risks remain skewed upward, leaving scope for further tightening. Consistent with the leading Index, growth appears subdued, though inflation remains the central bank’s primary concern. Westpac expects upcoming CPI to remain uncomfortably high, raising the odds of additional hikes in the coming months.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index stalled from a month earlier in April 2026, following a 0.10% decline in March. Meanwhile, the six-month annualised growth rate slipped to -0.17% from -0.11% in March, pointing to below-trend growth through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027. The latest reading marked the first consecutive below-trend signal since late 2024, reflecting a clearer loss of momentum in the Australian economy. The deterioration was driven mainly by a sharp weakening in consumer sentiment, with the Consumer Expectations Index plunging 20% since late last year and becoming a major drag on the headline index. Softer financial market indicators, including a narrowing yield spread and weaker equity markets, also weighed on the outlook. Westpac expects the Reserve Bank to pause at its June meeting after three straight rate hikes, while persistent inflation pressures are likely to keep the door open for further tightening later this year.