Australia Leading Index Rises in April

2026-05-27 06:58 By Kyrie Dichosa 1 min. read

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index stalled from a month earlier in April 2026, following a 0.10% decline in March.

Meanwhile, the six-month annualised growth rate slipped to -0.17% from -0.11% in March, pointing to below-trend growth through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027.

The latest reading marked the first consecutive below-trend signal since late 2024, reflecting a clearer loss of momentum in the Australian economy.

The deterioration was driven mainly by a sharp weakening in consumer sentiment, with the Consumer Expectations Index plunging 20% since late last year and becoming a major drag on the headline index.

Softer financial market indicators, including a narrowing yield spread and weaker equity markets, also weighed on the outlook.

Westpac expects the Reserve Bank to pause at its June meeting after three straight rate hikes, while persistent inflation pressures are likely to keep the door open for further tightening later this year.



News Stream
Australia Leading Index Rises in April
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index stalled from a month earlier in April 2026, following a 0.10% decline in March. Meanwhile, the six-month annualised growth rate slipped to -0.17% from -0.11% in March, pointing to below-trend growth through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027. The latest reading marked the first consecutive below-trend signal since late 2024, reflecting a clearer loss of momentum in the Australian economy. The deterioration was driven mainly by a sharp weakening in consumer sentiment, with the Consumer Expectations Index plunging 20% since late last year and becoming a major drag on the headline index. Softer financial market indicators, including a narrowing yield spread and weaker equity markets, also weighed on the outlook. Westpac expects the Reserve Bank to pause at its June meeting after three straight rate hikes, while persistent inflation pressures are likely to keep the door open for further tightening later this year.
2026-05-27
Australia Leading Index Remains Weak
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index inched down 0.1% month-on-month in March 2026, matching February's reading. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, declined to –0.13% in March from 0.05% in February. Higher interest rates and the spike in fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East are starting to weigh on growth momentum, albeit fairly mildly, according to Westpac economist Matthew Hassan. The March Index already points to a period of below-trend growth over the remainder of 2026. While the growth pulse is not overly weak, it is the first below-trend read since August last year and, before that, since the extended period of weakness during the ‘cost-of-living’ crisis of 2022–2024. Westpac expects the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate by another 25bps in May, with further moves likely in subsequent months.
2026-04-22
Australia Leading Index Inches Down
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index edged lower 0.1% month-on-month in February 2026, following an upwardly revised flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, held at 0.08%, unchanged from January but down from more firmly positive reads seen late last year. Momentum remains slightly above average in early 2026 but is expected to fade as the central bank’s latest rate hike takes hold and the broader impact of the Middle East conflict emerges. Westpac projects Australia’s GDP growth to slow to 2% in 2026, down from 2.5% last year, underscoring a weakening trend below the nation’s long-term pace. On the monetary front, economist Matthew Hassan noted another 25bp rate hike is likely at the May meeting.
2026-03-18