Nicaragua's economy shrank 7.7 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a downwardly revised 4.4 percent fall in the previous period. It was the steepest contraction since at least 1995, as output fell further in construction (-33.7 percent vs -9.8 percent in Q3); transportation & communications (-13.0% vs -5.5%); retail trade (-19.4 percent vs -17 percent); financial intermediation (-14.1 percent vs -6.9 percent); real estate (-3.3 percent vs -1.8 percent); public administration (-1.1 percent vs 0.9 percent) and forestry & wood extraction (-7.4 percent vs -2.1 percent). Also, output dropped in fishing (-1 percent vs 7.9 percent) and growth slowed in manufacturing (0.2 percent vs 5.2 percent); health (2.2 percent vs 3 percent); mining & quarrying (4.4 percent vs 8.1 percent); electricity (4.3 vs 7.5 percent) and water (2.9 percent vs 5.4 percent). Considering full 2018, the economy contracted 3.8 percent compared to a 4.7 percent expansion in 2017. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Nicaragua averaged 3.93 percent from 1995 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.90 percent in the fourth quarter of 1999 and a record low of -7.70 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Nicaragua is expected to be -3.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Nicaragua to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Nicaragua GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.