Italian Inflation Softens as Expected

The annual inflation rate in Italy picked up to 3.3% in August 2026 from 2.9% in July, marking the highest reading since September 2023, according to preliminary estimates. The acceleration was driven mainly by a rise in energy inflation, with non-regulated energy prices rising 16.9% from 11.4% in July, while regulated energy inflation climbed to 18.8% from 14.8%, reflecting continued inflationary pressure from ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, prices for recreational, cultural and personal care services eased to 2.6% from 3%, while transportation services slowed to 0.9% from 1.6%. Food inflation remained stable at 1.1%. Core inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food prices, edged down to 1.5% from 1.6%. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation rose 0.5%, the most since April, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% increase and following a 0.3% gain in July. The HICP inflation also accelerated to 3.2% year-on-year in August from 2.9% in July.

The annual inflation rate in Italy came at 2.9% in July 2026, revised up from a preliminary estimate of 2.8% but slightly down from 3.0% in June. It marked the second moderation since the rate climbed to a more than two-year high of 3.2% in May, as the temporary resumption of energy exports from the Middle East helped ease price pressures during the period. Non-regulated energy inflation, which is more responsive to movements in global benchmarks, slowed to 11.4% from 13.3% in June. Price growth also eased for unprocessed food products (3.6% vs 4.4%) and miscellaneous services (1.8% vs 2.5%). Conversely, inflation picked up for regulated energy (14.8% vs 9.2%), transport-related services (1.6% vs 1.1%), and recreational, cultural and personal care services (3.0% vs 2.7%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3%, following a flat reading in June. Core inflation, which excludes energy eased to 1.8% from 1.9%.

The annual inflation rate in Italy eased to 2.8% in July of 2026 from 3% in the previous month, aligned with the median market consensus, according to a preliminary estimate. It was the second pullback since the rate surged to an over-two-year high of 3.2% in May, reflecting some softening as the temporary resumption of energy exports from the Middle East brought relief to wholesale prices in the period. Non-regulated energy inflation, which are more sensitive to swings in global benchmarks, eased to 10.6% from 13.3% in June. Prices also slowed for fresh food (3.8% vs 4.4%) and broad services (1.8% vs 2.5%). In turn, prices rebounded for non-fresh food (0.2% vs -0.2%) and rose faster for regulated energy (14.9% vs 9.2%) and transportation services (1.6% vs 1.1%). Core inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food prices due to their often exogenous price swings, eased to 1.8% from 1.9%).