Italy’s BTP Yield Jumps on Iran Oil Surge, ECB Rate Hike Bets

2026-03-20 10:56 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield surged toward 4%, touching its highest since mid-2024, as escalating energy prices and the European Central Bank’s firm stance fueled bets on multiple interest rate hikes in 2026.

Brent crude exceeded $110 per barrel following attacks on Middle East refineries, with reports suggesting potential US action against Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil export terminal.

Investors now anticipate at least two ECB rate increases this year, with a possible third, after the central bank maintained rates but raised its inflation outlook and cut growth forecasts.

ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel warned of a potential rate hike as early as next month if inflation pressures persist, while Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized the bank’s readiness to take strong action amid growing geopolitical risks.



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