Indonesia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Indonesia's economy is expected to grow between 5 to 5.4 percent this year, mainly driven by rising investment and exports amid higher commodity prices. Foreign inflows are estimated to increase after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all three major agencies. Inflation is forecasted to pick up, led by higher food and fuel cost, but not to exceed government's 5 percent upper limit target. The Central bank is predicted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged this year, as policymakers move cautiously due to future US interest rate hikes. However, there is still room to ease monetary policy. The budget deficit is expected to decline gradually, as the government has taken effective expenditure and revenue measures to stabilize public finances. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.34 3.7 3.5 -1.5 0.3 -0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.4 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.33 4.2 4.5 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 474.00 900 1408 -140 1700 300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 29 29 32 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 13325.00 13400 13500 13900 13800 15900 [+]
Stock Market 5829.71 5720 5660 5490 5540 4620 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.81 6.95 7.02 7.09 7.16 8.26 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.34 3.7 3.5 -1.5 0.3 -0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.01 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
GDP 861.93 917 917 917 925 938 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2377500.00 2473553 2552587 2505452 2460000 2916976 IDR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 701250.16 787000 771000 783000 790200 835117 IDR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 760546.15 791000 816000 859000 790000 968000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 3834.06 3867 3900 3933 3954 4254 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10385.30 10481 10569 10657 10716 11559 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 87974.80 90500 88000 51300 94000 71200 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 245400.00 248000 250010 261000 259000 303000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 510800.00 530000 529000 525158 530000 582589 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 194854.70 165699 193907 198557 195200 202750 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 41647.40 43085 43983 44692 45200 55313 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 31357.60 33800 34450 34700 35500 54300 IDR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.4 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 120647697.00 121667827 121667827 121667827 124012136 128453451 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7024172.00 7255199 7255199 7255199 7380609 7509728 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.06 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.8 69.1 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2353.10 2614 2850 2788 2910 3800 IDR THO/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.9 4.5 IDR Million/Month [+]
Population 258.70 260 261 262 262 271 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2700000.00 3400000 3600000 3600000 4000000 4500000 IDR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000000.00 4500000 4500000 4500000 4800000 5700000 IDR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 3181234.00 3200000 3230000 3280000 3320000 3700000 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.33 4.2 4.5 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.39 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.83 129 130 133 130 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 120.81 122 123 124 125 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.20 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 135.74 136 138 140 142 151 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 155.42 158 160 163 165 189 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 145.20 144 143 141 147 155 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 133.41 133 134 135 137 147 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.37 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.1 4 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 128.01 133 135 136 136 143 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 125.89 126 128 129 130 143 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.40 6.2 5.4 5.1 5.6 3.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.01 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 479037.61 513000 517000 522000 528000 560000 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1243451.00 1289366 1319695 1359797 1390000 1649900 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 5042628.10 5060000 5180000 5200000 5260000 6690000 IDR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124953.00 125000 125000 126000 128000 152000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3923847.00 3955682 4224388 4023398 4290215 5007960 IDR Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.20 6 5 5 5 7 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50 6.5 6.5 5.5 5.5 6 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.5 5.5 5.5 5 6 percent [+]
Loan Growth 9.50 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.8 5.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 474.00 900 1408 -140 1700 300 USD Million [+]
Exports 14291.20 13800 13100 13800 14500 16500 USD Million [+]
Imports 13817.20 12900 11692 13500 12800 16200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -2397.00 -2800 -2600 -1600 -2000 -3100 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -2 -2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 316968.36 320053 320053 320053 333681 377248 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 108.85 108 107 104 108 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 97.00 103575 105682 106162 107968 127611 IDR Trillion [+]
Remittances 1930.00 2200 2100 2120 2080 2600 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 966909.00 938490 1050000 1113980 1056666 1485815 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 828.00 780 770 780 770 830 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.43 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.9 4 [+]
Weapons Sales 94.00 105 105 105 58 64 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 29 29 32 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.46 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -305229.70 -334582 -334582 -334582 -319636 -297086 IDR Billion [+]
Government Spending 142202.92 189422 191867 268681 140979 291858 IDR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1555119.80 2085590 2085590 2085590 2294149 2735670 IDR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1860349.50 2420172 2420172 2420172 2613785 3032756 IDR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 7782.90 9783 9783 9783 8134 13162 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 103.42 108 109 107 101 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.60 50.4 49.5 51 51.4 51.5 [+]
Industrial Production 6.40 1.3 4.9 6.5 5.5 6.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 -3 2.1 3 2 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.92 77.2 77 77.5 77 77.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 43783.62 52889 54952 -17600 47500 -29600 IDR Billion [+]
Car Registrations 93661.00 100100 93837 94320 107400 115000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 41.00 35 35 35 33 30 [+]
Copper Production 263413.00 210000 280840 230000 250000 330000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 39 39 39 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 82 82 82 80 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 91.00 87 87 87 85 79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 125.90 122 121 122 119 123 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.20 2 3.11 5.5 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 2.7 5.2 4.8 8.7 12 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1309070.90 1310905 1358502 1350803 1377090 1624301 IDR Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 2021755.00 2051550 2034215 2115677 2137493 2271202 IDR Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 17.00 17 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.7 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 199.20 201 203 206 209 231 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]