Indonesia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Indonesia's economy is expected to grow between 5 to 5.4 percent this year, mainly driven by rising investment and exports amid higher commodity prices. Foreign inflows are estimated to increase after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all three major agencies. Inflation is forecasted to pick up, led by higher food and fuel cost, but not to exceed government's 5 percent upper limit target. The Central bank is predicted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged this year, as policymakers move cautiously due to future US interest rate hikes. However, there is still room to ease monetary policy. The budget deficit is expected to decline gradually, as the government has taken effective expenditure and revenue measures to stabilize public finances. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 3.5 -1.5 0.3 3.6 -0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.88 4.5 4.2 4 4.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.5 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -271.20 1408 -140 1700 730 300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 29 32 32 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 13361.00 13544 13678 13812 13946 15422 [+]
Stock Market 5893.84 5810 5750 5690 5630 4990 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.90 6.93 7 7.07 7.13 7.89 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 3.5 -1.5 0.3 3.6 -0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.01 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.1 percent [+]
GDP 932.26 975 975 1013 1013 1090 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2472800.00 2552587 2505452 2460000 2460000 2916976 IDR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 701250.16 771000 783000 790200 790200 835117 IDR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 782714.45 816000 859000 790000 790000 968000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 3974.10 4050 4088 4113 4138 4385 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10764.50 10953 11055 11118 11180 11778 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 33240.00 88000 51300 94000 97000 71200 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 239800.00 250010 261000 259000 260000 303000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 525400.00 529000 534878 530000 550000 591749 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 195400.00 193907 198557 195200 16600 202750 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 42695.30 43983 44692 45200 47901 55313 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 32577.10 34450 34700 35500 38200 54300 IDR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 124538849.00 121667827 122185252 124012136 124012136 132658967 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7005262.00 7255199 7255199 7380609 7380609 7509728 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.02 68.5 68.5 68.8 68.8 69.1 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2473120.00 2850 430673 2910 3010 3800 IDR THO/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.9 3.9 4.5 IDR Million/Month [+]
Population 258.70 261 262 262 262 271 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 58.00 58 58 58 58 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 3181234.00 3230000 3280000 3320000 3350000 3700000 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2700000.00 3600000 3600000 4000000 4000000 4500000 IDR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000000.00 4500000 4500000 4800000 4800000 5700000 IDR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.88 4.5 4.2 4 4.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.22 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.00 130 133 133 135 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 121.45 123 124 124 126 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.05 3.8 4.1 4.3 4 4.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 136.15 138 140 142 142 151 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 154.84 160 163 165 165 189 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 142.90 143 141 147 147 155 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 133.90 134 135 137 137 147 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.50 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.8 4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 126.92 128 129 130 131 143 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 129.54 135 136 136 136 143 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.40 5.4 5.1 5.6 6.1 3.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.5 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.02 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 561856.55 517000 522000 528000 528000 560000 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1395312.30 1319695 1359797 1390000 1390000 1649900 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 5278918.40 5180000 5200000 5260000 5260000 6690000 IDR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 127758.58 125000 126000 128000 130000 152000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 4018942.00 4224388 4155477 4290215 4325181 5007960 IDR Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.20 5 5 5 5 7 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50 6.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.5 5.5 5 5 6 percent [+]
Loan Growth 7.70 8.8 7.1 6.8 6.8 5.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -271.20 1408 -140 1700 730 300 USD Million [+]
Exports 13617.00 13100 13800 14500 14628 16500 USD Million [+]
Imports 13888.20 11692 13500 12800 13900 16200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -4962.50 -2600 -1600 -2000 -2300 -3100 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 -1.9 -1.9 -2 -2 -2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 316968.36 320053 320053 333681 333681 377248 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 106.73 107 104 108 108 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 109.90 105682 106162 107968 107968 127611 IDR Trillion [+]
Remittances 1930.00 2100 2120 2080 2280 2600 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 910931.00 1050000 1113980 1056666 1063865 1485815 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 78.07 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 825.00 770 780 770 770 830 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 94.00 105 105 58 58 64 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.43 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.9 4 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 29 32 32 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.46 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -305229.70 -334582 -334582 -319636 -319636 -297086 IDR Billion [+]
Government Spending 183922.00 191867 268681 140979 140979 291858 IDR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1555119.80 2085590 2085590 2294149 2294149 2735670 IDR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1860349.50 2420172 2420172 2613785 2613785 3032756 IDR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 7782.90 9783 9783 8134 8134 13162 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 111.63 109 107 101 109 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.60 49.5 51 51.4 51.2 51.5 [+]
Industrial Production 6.40 4.9 6.5 5.5 5.5 6.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 2.1 3 2 2 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.06 77 77.5 77 77.4 77.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 56258.78 54952 -17600 47500 47500 -29600 IDR Billion [+]
Car Registrations 66370.00 93837 94320 107400 108200 115000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 41.00 35 35 33 33 30 [+]
Copper Production 263413.00 280840 230000 250000 250000 330000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 39 39 42 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 82 82 80 80 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 91.00 87 87 85 85 79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 123.40 121 122 119 120 123 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.80 3.11 5.5 3.6 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.30 5.2 4.8 8.7 9.2 12 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1326487.60 1358502 1350803 1377090 1386320 1624301 IDR Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 2066116.00 2034215 2152818 2194700 2236334 2640523 IDR Billion [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 17.00 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.1 17.7 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 201.55 203 206 209 212 231 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]