Indonesia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Indonesia's economy is expected to advance 5.4 percent in 2018, higher than a 5.2 percent expansion in 2017. Investment is projected to increase at a faster pace, due to the ongoing recovery in commodity prices, improved investor confidence after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all the major agencies and lower commercial lending rates. Export growth is expected to stay robust in 2018, lifted by stronger external demand in line with faster global economic growth and the rebound in global trade. At the same time, private consumption is projected to rise on continued moderate inflation, a stable Rupiah and lower consumer lending rates. Inflation is set to rise at a slower 3.5 percent on the assumptions that there is no extreme weather disrupting food production. The central bank is predicted to remain watchful of administered price related inflationary pressure. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 -1.5 0.3 3.6 3.4 -0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.72 4.2 4 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1760.00 -140 1700 730 1308 300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 32 32 32.05 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 13538.00 13400 13200 13100 12961 11476 [+]
Stock Market 5950.03 5840 5780 5720 5660 5010 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.63 6.55 6.62 6.68 6.75 7.46 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 -1.5 0.3 3.6 3.4 -0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.01 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.1 percent [+]
GDP 932.26 975 1013 1013 1013 1090 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2472800.00 2505452 2460000 2460000 2406839 2916976 IDR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 701250.16 783000 790200 790200 691906 686551 IDR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 782714.45 859000 790000 790000 754034 968000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 3974.10 4069 4087 4104 4121 4230 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10764.50 10996 11032 11068 11103 11271 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 33240.00 51300 94000 97000 70425 71200 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 239800.00 261000 259000 260000 238145 303000 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 525400.00 528571 530000 550000 531347 520618 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 195400.00 198557 195200 16600 194501 202750 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 42695.30 44692 45200 47901 46748 55313 IDR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 32577.10 34700 35500 38200 31950 54300 IDR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.33 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 124538849.00 121861309 124012136 124012136 127751548 130898101 [+]
Unemployed Persons 7005262.00 7255199 7380609 7380609 6963695 7509728 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.02 68.5 68.8 68.8 67.88 69.1 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2473120.00 2911000 3012000 3221000 3342000 4562000 IDR/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 3.35 3.35 3.9 3.9 3.24 4.5 IDR Million/Month [+]
Population 258.70 261 262 263 263 269 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 57.7 58 58 57.52 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 58.00 57.76 58 58 57.76 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 3181234.00 3280000 3320000 3350000 3398725 3700000 [+]
Living Wage Individual 2843290.00 2792557 2715274 2751015 2783040 2756319 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2700000.00 3600000 4000000 4000000 2575065 4500000 IDR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000000.00 4500000 4800000 4800000 4000000 5700000 IDR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.72 4.2 4 4.2 4 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.13 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.54 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.08 133 130 130 130 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.22 124 124 124 124 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.00 4.1 4.3 4 3.4 4.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 136.15 140 142 142 138 151 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 154.84 163 165 165 155 189 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 142.20 141 147 147 141 155 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 134.34 135 137 137 134 147 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.04 1.5 1.7 2.2 3.2 4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 127.32 128 128 128 128 127 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 128.78 136 136 136 127 143 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.10 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.5 3.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.19 6.5 6.5 6.5 7.76 6.2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 526959.98 522000 528000 528000 524384 560000 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 1274700.00 1359797 1390000 1390000 1283888 1649900 IDR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 5218500.00 5200000 5260000 5260000 5278753 6690000 IDR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 129402.00 126000 128000 130000 128951 152000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 4009871.00 4058164 4290215 4325181 4077515 5007960 IDR Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.57 6 percent [+]
Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 6 percent [+]
Loan Growth 8.26 7.1 6.8 6.8 16.82 5.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1760.00 -140 1700 730 1308 300 USD Million [+]
Exports 14541.80 13800 14500 14628 14538 16500 USD Million [+]
Imports 12780.90 13500 12800 13900 12835 16200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -4962.50 -1600 -2000 -2300 -3348 -3100 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 -1.9 -2 -2 -1.37 -2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 316968.36 320053 333681 333681 317501 377248 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 105.83 104 108 108 104 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 109.90 112 114 116 118 134 IDR Trillion [+]
Remittances 2161.00 2120 2080 2280 2100 2600 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1178407.00 1113980 1056666 1063865 1061100 1485815 [+]
Gold Reserves 79.31 80.15 78.07 78.07 80.84 82.28 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 825.00 780 770 770 853 830 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 94.00 105 58 58 31.3 64 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.43 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.56 4 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 29 32 32 32.05 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.46 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -1.5 -2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -305229.70 -334582 -319636 -319636 -349656 -297086 IDR Billion [+]
Government Spending 183922.00 268681 140979 140979 163947 291858 IDR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1555119.80 2085590 2294149 2294149 1536347 2735670 IDR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1860349.50 2420172 2613785 2613785 1896311 3032756 IDR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 7782.90 9783 8134 8134 7576 13162 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 111.63 107 101 109 109 108 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.40 51 51.4 51.2 50.13 51.5 [+]
Industrial Production -1.40 6.5 5.5 5.5 3.17 6.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -4.54 3 2 2 0.56 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.99 77.5 77 77.4 75.02 77.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 56258.78 -17600 47500 47500 43102 -29600 IDR Billion [+]
Car Registrations 87645.00 94320 107400 108200 85898 115000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.68 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.53 4.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 36.00 35 33 33 40 30 [+]
Copper Production 290830.00 230000 250000 250000 227865 330000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 39 42 42 35 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 82 80 80 90 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 91.00 87 85 85 92 79 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 123.80 122 119 120 118 123 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 5.5 3.6 3.6 1.08 2.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.20 4.8 8.7 9.2 8.62 12 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1326487.60 1350803 1377090 1386320 1327508 1624301 IDR Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 2063780.00 2115404 2134963 2150477 2162380 2178298 IDR Billion [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.90 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.73 17.7 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.47 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 201.55 206 209 212 201 231 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 26.07 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30.56 30 30 30.92 31.84 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.74 15.42 15.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 3.68 4 percent [+]