Indonesia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Indonesia's economy is expected to advance 5.4 percent in 2018, higher than a 5.2 percent expansion in 2017. Investment is projected to increase at a faster pace, due to the ongoing recovery in commodity prices, improved investor confidence after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all the major agencies and lower commercial lending rates. Export growth is expected to stay robust in 2018, lifted by stronger external demand in line with faster global economic growth and the rebound in global trade. At the same time, private consumption is projected to rise on continued moderate inflation, a stable Rupiah and lower consumer lending rates. Inflation is set to rise at a slower 3.5 percent on the assumptions that there is no extreme weather disrupting food production. The central bank is predicted to remain watchful of administered price related inflationary pressure. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.18 -0.3 3.6 3.3 -1.2 -0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 6 percent
Inflation Rate 3.61 4 4.2 4 3.8 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 5 percent
Balance of Trade -270.00 1700 730 399 -200 300 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 27.90 32 32 29.87 32 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 13360.00
13413 13493 13574 13656 13986
Stock Market 6444.52
points
6275 6142 6013 5886 4963
Government Bond 10Y 6.08
percent
6.62 6.68 6.75 7.57 7.46
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.18
percent
-0.3 3.6 3.3 -1.2 -0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.06
percent
5.2 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.1
GDP 932.26
USD Billion
1013 1013 1013 1013 1090
GDP Constant Prices 2551468.60
IDR Billion
2460000 2460000 2505085 2638241 2916976
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 823779.56
IDR Billion
790000 790000 808732 895000 968000
GDP per capita 3974.10
USD
3958 3995 4032 4069 4230
GDP per capita PPP 10764.50
USD
10696 10796 10896 10996 11271
GDP From Agriculture 34650.00
IDR Billion
94000 97000 39896 58800 71200
GDP From Construction 251500.00
IDR Billion
259000 260000 247126 276000 303000
GDP From Manufacturing 536500.00
IDR Billion
530000 550000 548590 548976 539572
GDP From Mining 195600.00
IDR Billion
195200 16600 195013 200124 202750
GDP From Services 43801.80
IDR Billion
45200 47901 47596 48222 55313
GDP From Utilities 34121.90
IDR Billion
35500 38200 34812 41000 54300
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.50
percent
5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 6
Employed Persons 124538849.00
124012136 124012136 126278988 127751548 130898101
Unemployed Persons 7005262.00
7380609 7380609 6945408 7380609 7509728
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.02
percent
68.8 68.8 67.8 68.8 69.1
Minimum Wages 3.35
IDR Million/Month
3.9 3.9 3.19 3.9 4.5
Wages in Manufacturing 2636846.00
IDR/Month
3012000 3221000 3342000 3602000 4562000
Population 258.70
Million
260 261 261 262 269
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 60
Retirement Age Men 58.00
58 58 58 58 60
Living Wage Family 2869600.00
IDR/Month
3320000 3350000 2855943 3360000 3700000
Living Wage Individual 1678100.00
IDR/Month
1689799 1674830 1639027 1591458 1563972
Wages Low Skilled 3080800.00
IDR/Month
4000000 4000000 3072630 4000000 4500000
Wages High Skilled 4951000.00
IDR/Month
4800000 4800000 4805907 4800000 5700000
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.61
percent
4 4.2 4 3.8 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.71
percent
0.3 0.3 0.45 0.6 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 131.28
Index Points
132 133 133 138 149
Core Consumer Prices 122.75
Index Points
123 123 123 129 140
Core Inflation Rate 2.95
percent
4.3 4 3.19 3.8 4.8
GDP Deflator 137.27
Index Points
142 142 139 143 151
Producer Prices 157.85
Index Points
165 165 159 175 189
Export Prices 149.50
Index Points
147 147 149 150 155
Import Prices 139.01
Index Points
137 137 138 139 147
Food Inflation 1.26
percent
1.7 2.2 3.2 3.6 4
Producer Prices Change 2.10
percent
5.6 6.1 6.5 7.6 3.6
CPI Housing Utilities 127.93
Index Points
128 128 129 129 128
CPI Transportation 129.68
Index Points
136 136 128 138 143
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 5
Interbank Rate 5.31
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.2
Money Supply M0 537297.62
IDR Billion
528000 528000 530112 538000 560000
Money Supply M1 1338107.70
IDR Billion
1390000 1390000 1336092 1459000 1649900
Money Supply M2 5319963.90
IDR Billion
5260000 5260000 5410739 5670000 6690000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 130200.00
USD Million
128000 130000 130348 133000 152000
Loans to Private Sector 4134269.00
IDR Billion
4290215 4325181 4355639 45020050 5007960
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75
Lending Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 6
Loan Growth 7.50
percent
6.8 6.8 14.77 6.8 5.9
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50
percent
5.5 5.5 6.56 5.5 6
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -270.00
USD Million
1700 730 399 -200 300
Exports 14791.20
USD Million
14500 14628 14791 14600 16500
Imports 15061.20
USD Million
12800 13900 14852 14800 16200
Current Account -4336.80
USD Million
-2000 -2300 -3329 -1400 -3100
Current Account to GDP -1.80
percent
-2 -2 -1.53 -2 -2.2
External Debt 316968.36
USD Million
333681 333681 320684 333682 377248
Terms of Trade 107.54
Index Points
108 108 105 108 106
Foreign Direct Investment 111.70
IDR Trillion
114 116 118 125 134
Remittances 2161.00
USD Million
2080 2280 2100 2350 2600
Tourist Arrivals 848601.00
556666 1063865 0 1203098 1485815
Gold Reserves 80.56
Tonnes
78.07 78.07 81.35 81.53 82.66
Crude Oil Production 825.00
BBL/D/1K
770 770 853 805 830
Terrorism Index 4.55
4.9 4.9 4.6 4.9 4
Weapons Sales 94.00
USD Million
58 58 51.44 58 64
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.90
percent
32 32 29.87 32 35
Government Budget -2.46
percent of GDP
-2.2 -2.2 -1.87 -2.2 -2
Government Budget Value -305229.70
IDR Billion
-319636 -319636 -327925 -319636 -297086
Government Spending 193654.89
IDR Billion
140979 140979 182302 277547 291858
Government Revenues 1555119.80
IDR Billion
2294149 2294149 1556651 2294149 2735670
Fiscal Expenditure 1860349.50
IDR Billion
2613785 2613785 1888312 2613785 3032756
Military Expenditure 7782.90
USD Million
8134 8134 7576 8134 13162
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 112.39
Index Points
101 109 110 109 108
Manufacturing PMI 49.30
51.4 51.2 50 50.5 51.5
Industrial Production -1.40
percent
5.5 5.5 3.17 4.7 6.6
Industrial Production Mom -4.54
percent
2 2 0.56 2.4 1.8
Capacity Utilization 75.05
percent
77 77.4 74.61 77.2 77.8
Changes in Inventories 29401.61
IDR Billion
47500 47500 24443 -22800 -29600
Car Registrations 96148.00
Cars
107400 108200 92055 99220 115000
Internet Speed 7203.29
KBps
7002 6847 6690 6535 5453
IP Addresses 2826875.00
IP
2948472 2978709 3001267 3013877 3075837
Competitiveness Index 4.68
Points
4.7 4.7 4.53 4.7 4.9
Competitiveness Rank 36.00
33 33 40 33 30
Copper Production 290830.00
Tonnes
250000 250000 227865 280000 330000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
42 42 36 42 45
Corruption Rank 90.00
80 80 88 80 77
Ease of Doing Business 72.00
85 85 66 85 79
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 126.40
Index Points
119 120 121 123 123
Retail Sales MoM 2.20
percent
3.6 3.6 1.05 6.2 2.5
Retail Sales YoY 2.50
percent
8.7 9.2 8.14 9.2 12
Consumer Spending 1372053.10
IDR Billion
1377090 1386320 1410872 1411859 1624301
Consumer Credit 2109164.00
IDR Billion
2168702 2195144 2216253 2232862 2270863
Households Debt To Gdp 16.90
percent of GDP
17.3 17.1 16.67 17.5 17.7
Gasoline Prices 0.48
USD/Liter
0.54 0.55 0.47 0.56 0.6
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 201.18
Index Points
209 212 201 217 231
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 26 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 31 31 32
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 15.74
percent
15.74 15.74 16 15.74 15.74
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.74
percent
11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4 4 4.06 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 26.41
celsius
25.72 25.94 25.58 25.74 26.32
Precipitation 297.99
mm
277 242 176 261 244