Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Currency 14160.00 14260 14329 14400 14470 14611
Stock Market (points) 6158.17 6107 6045 5984 5924 5805
Government Bond 10Y (%) 7.21 7.37 7.44 7.51 7.58 7.73
Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.20 -1.9 -0.8 3.6 2.8 -1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 5.05 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 5.3
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.01 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Inflation Rate (%) 3.39 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.27 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Interest Rate (%) 5.25 5 5 5 5 5
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -160.50 -900 -800 300 700 300
Current Account (USD Million) -8442.80 -9000 -5500 -8500 -6000 -10000
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.00 -4 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 29.80 30.9 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.76 -2.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8
Business Confidence (Index Points) 108.81 105 106 106 105 108
Manufacturing PMI 49.10 50.2 51 51.2 51.5 51.5
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 121.80 123 125 124 123 128
Retail Sales MoM (%) -2.10 4.2 3.2 3 -2.5 3.4
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.20 -1.9 -0.8 3.6 2.8 -1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 5.05 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 5.3
GDP (USD Billion) 1042.17 1126 1150 1150 1150 1150
GDP Constant Prices (IDR Billion) 2735191.60 2773478 2770839 2756306 2874686 2920472
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (IDR Billion) 869895.72 960939 960025 904926 914260 1011869
GDP per capita (USD) 4284.70 4330 4500 4500 4500 4500
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 11605.90 11733 12037 12037 12037 12037
GDP From Agriculture (IDR Billion) 88693.90 48528 48482 84061 93217 51100
GDP From Construction (IDR Billion) 267906.20 292043 291766 279212 281569 307522
GDP From Manufacturing (IDR Billion) 564982.40 581454 580901 583052 593797 612272
GDP From Mining (IDR Billion) 198663.50 210596 210396 209883 208795 221758
GDP From Services (IDR Billion) 51156.00 50966 50918 52161 53765 53668
GDP From Utilities (IDR Billion) 36954.00 39814 39776 38341 38839 41924
Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.01 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Unemployed Persons 6871264.00 6775000 6610000 6610000 6610000 6610000
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 69.20 69.3 69.1 69.1 69.1 69.1
Minimum Wages (IDR Million/Month) 3.94 3.94 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Wages in Manufacturing (IDR/Month) 2653267.53 2850000 2850000 2850000 2850000 3100000
Population (Million) 264.20 265 266 266 266 266
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 58.00 58 58 58 58 58
Living Wage Family (IDR/Month) 2954800.00 3150000 3150000 3150000 3150000 3230000
Living Wage Individual (IDR/Month) 1456700.00 1820000 1820000 1820000 1820000 1890000
Wages Low Skilled (IDR/Month) 3427900.00 3270000 3270000 3270000 3270000 3330000
Wages High Skilled (IDR/Month) 5017000.00 5240000 5240000 5240000 5240000 5310000
Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 3.39 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.27 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 138.37 140 140 143 143 145
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 129.84 130 132 133 134 135
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.32 3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.5
Producer Prices (Index Points) 167.18 176 175 172 174 185
Food Inflation (%) 5.42 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.1 4
Producer Prices Change (%) 0.90 3 3.5 4 3.5 5
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 132.94 135 136 137 137 140
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 133.45 151 151 152 138 157
Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Interest Rate (%) 5.25 5 5 5 5 5
Interbank Rate (%) 5.80 7.21 7.21 5.87 5.87 7.21
Money Supply M2 (IDR Billion) 5934216.20 6150000 6240000 6260000 6290000 6310000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 124300.00 127500 129200 131100 134100 135100
Loans to Private Sector (IDR Billion) 4775245.00 4830000 4878263 4884829 5009710 4950000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 4.50 5.25 5.25 5.25 4.25 5.25
Lending Rate (%) 6.00 6.75 6.75 5.75 5.75 6.75
Loan Growth (%) 9.58 8 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.9
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 6.00 6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -160.50 -900 -800 300 700 300
Current Account (USD Million) -8442.80 -9000 -5500 -8500 -6000 -10000
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.00 -4 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2
Imports (USD Million) 14258.20 15000 13700 11200 13500 16700
Exports (USD Million) 14097.70 14900 14000 11900 13800 16500
External Debt (USD Million) 391827.59 410000 410000 396855 406972 420000
Foreign Direct Investment (IDR Trillion) 104.90 105 110 100 105 98.8
Tourist Arrivals 1555346.00 1550000 1350000 1450000 1390000 1580000
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 78.54 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 736.00 801 800 800 800 805
Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 29.80 30.9 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.76 -2.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8
Government Spending (IDR Billion) 209394.41 297858 297575 161335 220074 313644
Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate (%) 10.00 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate (%) 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 4.00 4 4 4 4 4
Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) 108.81 105 106 106 105 108
Manufacturing PMI 49.10 50.2 51 51.2 51.5 51.5
Industrial Production (%) 8.10 3.5 4.5 5 5.5 6.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 20.30 4 3.5 3 2.5 1.8
Car Registrations 90403.00 86000 89000 55000 90000 89000
Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 121.80 123 125 124 123 128
Retail Sales MoM (%) -2.10 4.2 3.2 3 -2.5 3.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 1.10 3.9 4 6 5 5.1
Consumer Spending (IDR Billion) 1467542.40 1515347 1513905 1514678 1542387 1595660
Consumer Credit (IDR Billion) 2477053.00 2486828 2470728 2521384 2575195 2618630
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 16.90 17 16.9 16.9 17 17
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.45 0.41 0.4 0.39 0.38 0.4
Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Housing Index (Index Points) 210.38 213 213 214 214 217


Indonesia's economy is expected to advance 5.2% in 2018, the same as in 2017. Investment is projected to increase further, due to the ongoing recovery in commodity prices, and improved investor confidence after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all the major agencies. At the same time, private consumption is seen rising amid moderate inflation and a robust labor market. Meanwhile, net exports may drag on growth as import-intensive investment remains robust, also due to the ongoing streamlining of import processes. Inflation is seen at 3.5% on the assumptions that there is no extreme weather disrupting food production. The rupiah is expected to remain under pressure amid global uncertainty, including the Fed’s decision to raise its reference rate and intensifying trade disputes. The central bank is seen tightening further this year, depending on how domestic and global developments play out and how aggressive is the normalization of US monetary policy. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.