Indonesia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Indonesia's economy is expected to advance 5.2% in 2018, the same as in 2017. Investment is projected to increase further, due to the ongoing recovery in commodity prices, and improved investor confidence after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all the major agencies. At the same time, private consumption is seen rising amid moderate inflation and a robust labor market. Meanwhile, net exports may drag on growth as import-intensive investment remains robust, also due to the ongoing streamlining of import processes. Inflation is seen at 3.5% on the assumptions that there is no extreme weather disrupting food production. The rupiah is expected to remain under pressure amid global uncertainty, including the Fed’s decision to raise its reference rate and intensifying trade disputes. The central bank is seen tightening further this year, depending on how domestic and global developments play out and how aggressive is the normalization of US monetary policy. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.21 3.5 -1.2 -0.3 3.4 -0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.13 5 5 4.9 4.9 5.3 percent
Inflation Rate 3.18 3.5 3.6 3.9 4 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 5.50 5.5 6 6 5.75 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade -2030.30 336 -200 501 503 300 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.70 32 32 33 33 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 14605.00
14488 14630 14773 14918 15512
Stock Market 5783.80
points
5550 5372 5200 5034 4420
Government Bond 10Y 7.99
percent
8.07 8.35 8.64 8.94 10.26
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.21
percent
3.5 -1.2 -0.3 3.4 -0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.27
percent
5 5.2 5 4.9 5.1
GDP 1015.54
USD Billion
1070 1070 1126 1126 1150
GDP Constant Prices 2603700.00
IDR Billion
2616022 2639396 2623530 2731281 2918253
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 828544.11
IDR Billion
844085 907323 861619 869143 1003183
GDP per capita 4130.66
USD
4251 4251 4332 4332 4567
GDP per capita PPP 11188.74
USD
11406 11406 11733 11733 12037
GDP From Agriculture 84110.00
IDR Billion
81953 46079 88806 88231 50947
GDP From Construction 253443.60
IDR Billion
257379 276867 263629 265862 306119
GDP From Manufacturing 546090.80
IDR Billion
549643 558020 560858 572849 616975
GDP From Mining 199227.90
IDR Billion
200368 206251 204634 208990 228042
GDP From Services 46530.70
IDR Billion
44950 46830 47263 48811 51777
GDP From Utilities 35639.30
IDR Billion
34975 36735 35857 37386 40616
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.13
percent
5 5 4.9 4.9 5.3
Employed Persons 127067835.00
126640107 127877582 128262152 128646721 134463754
Unemployed Persons 6871264.00
7001339 7380609 7002350 6996862 7509728
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.20
percent
68.27 68.8 68.55 68.7 69.1
Minimum Wages 3.60
IDR Million/Month
3.6 3.6 3.8 3.91 4.1
Wages in Manufacturing 2478868.00
IDR/Month
3342000 3602000 4081000 2479361 4562000
Population 261.90
Million
264 265 266 266 274
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 60
Retirement Age Men 58.00
58 58 58 58 60
Living Wage Family 2869600.00
IDR/Month
3000000 3000000 3100000 2871432 3100000
Living Wage Individual 1678100.00
IDR/Month
1533739 1529286 1534575 1539864 1547861
Wages Low Skilled 3080800.00
IDR/Month
4000000 4000000 4300000 3008930 4500000
Wages High Skilled 4951000.00
IDR/Month
4800000 4800000 5000000 5191127 5700000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.18
percent
3.5 3.6 3.9 4 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.28
percent
0.24 0.6 0.29 0.31 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 134.14
Index Points
135 136 138 139 147
Core Consumer Prices 124.94
Index Points
126 126 127 128 135
Core Inflation Rate 2.87
percent
2.7 2.8 2.96 2.99 3.5
GDP Deflator 141.48
Index Points
140 143 140 140 151
Producer Prices 165.05
Index Points
166 170 174 176 189
Export Prices 164.40
Index Points
164 150 164 164 155
Import Prices 147.32
Index Points
146 139 146 146 147
Food Inflation 5.35
percent
4.5 4.6 4 3.5 4
Producer Prices Change 6.60
percent
6.7 6.8 7 6.9 5
CPI Housing Utilities 129.42
Index Points
132 133 134 134 143
CPI Transportation 131.28
Index Points
144 146 146 137 158
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 5.50
percent
5.5 6 6 5.75 5.5
Interbank Rate 7.14
percent
7.14 7.64 7.64 7.39 7.14
Money Supply M0 605972.86
IDR Billion
562110 538000 563536 563564 560000
Money Supply M1 1452387.50
IDR Billion
1465622 1459000 1529452 1560650 1649900
Money Supply M2 5533664.00
IDR Billion
5613277 5670000 5806426 5903364 6690000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 118300.00
USD Million
118078 133000 117294 117168 152000
Loans to Private Sector 4388849.00
IDR Billion
4449874 45020050 4613859 4694735 5007960
Deposit Interest Rate 4.75
percent
4.75 5.25 5.25 5 4.75
Lending Rate 6.25
percent
6.25 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.25
Loan Growth 10.75
percent
11.39 6.8 11.99 12.1 5.9
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2030.30
USD Million
336 -200 501 503 300
Exports 16242.70
USD Million
13998 14600 14086 14079 16500
Imports 18273.00
USD Million
13662 14800 13585 13576 16200
Current Account -8028.00
USD Million
-2500 -1400 -5660 -5000 -3100
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2
External Debt 352246.73
USD Million
363171 333682 380045 385350 377248
Terms of Trade 111.61
Index Points
112 108 112 112 105
Foreign Direct Investment 95.70
IDR Trillion
118 125 115 119 134
Remittances 2636.30
USD Million
2601 2350 2760 2733 2600
Tourist Arrivals 1318028.00
1221100 1203098 1226700 1221500 1485815
Gold Reserves 80.60
Tonnes
80.58 80.58 80.58 80.58 80.58
Crude Oil Production 777.00
BBL/D/1K
805 805 815 761 830
Terrorism Index 4.55
4.48 4.9 4.5 4.49 4
Weapons Sales 102.00
USD Million
79.16 58 74.01 74.31 64
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.70
percent
32 32 33 33 35
Government Budget -2.50
percent of GDP
-2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3
Government Budget Value -347356.70
IDR Billion
-385283 -319636 -410977 -420004 -297086
Government Spending 193616.31
IDR Billion
198523 285134 153393 203104 315259
Government Revenues 1656890.70
IDR Billion
1684777 2294149 1711225 1722630 2735670
Fiscal Expenditure 2004247.20
IDR Billion
2070060 2613785 2122202 2142634 3032756
Military Expenditure 7910.80
USD Million
7757 8134 7840 7850 13162
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 112.82
Index Points
112 109 107 106 108
Manufacturing PMI 50.50
50.6 50.5 51 51.2 51.5
Industrial Production 11.60
percent
10.75 4.7 5.3 6 6.6
Industrial Production Mom 3.52
percent
0.3 2.4 0.58 0.58 1.8
Capacity Utilization 78.40
percent
77.73 77.2 77.19 77.05 77.8
Changes in Inventories 81439.27
IDR Billion
25228 -22800 64813 48103 -29600
Car Registrations 107461.00
81924 99220 81524 81208 115000
Internet Speed 7203.29
KBps
9476 9816 10142 10458 13118
IP Addresses 2826875.00
IP
2796091 2796265 2796270 2797720 2799337
Competitiveness Index 4.68
Points
4.68 4.68 4.73 4.73 4.9
Competitiveness Rank 36.00
33 33 32 32 30
Copper Production 197122.00
Tonnes
215348 280000 215626 215666 330000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
36 36 36 36 40
Corruption Rank 96.00
97 97 97 97 90
Ease of Doing Business 72.00
66 66 58 58 59
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 124.80
Index Points
128 123 128 128 123
Retail Sales MoM 2.50
percent
-0.6 5.1 3.6 6.4 3.4
Retail Sales YoY 2.30
percent
7.32 9.2 7.21 7.16 12
Consumer Spending 1394664.40
IDR Billion
1406410 1443537 1442214 1463003 1596050
Consumer Credit 2245855.00
IDR Billion
2304817 2351852 2398381 2444632 2895490
Households Debt To Gdp 17.00
percent of GDP
16.97 17.5 16.99 17 17.7
Gasoline Prices 0.45
USD/Liter
0.45 0.42 0.4 0.38 0.2
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 206.89
Index Points
207 217 209 211 231
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 26 26 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 9.74
percent
9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.74
percent
5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 26.41
celsius
25.58 25.74 25.77 26.35 26.32
Precipitation 297.99
mm
176 261 278 243 244