Indonesia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Indonesia's economy is expected to advance 5.4 percent in 2018, higher than a 5.2 percent expansion in 2017. Investment is projected to increase at a faster pace, due to the ongoing recovery in commodity prices, improved investor confidence after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all the major agencies and lower commercial lending rates. Export growth is expected to stay robust in 2018, lifted by stronger external demand in line with faster global economic growth and the rebound in global trade. At the same time, private consumption is projected to rise on continued moderate inflation, a stable Rupiah and lower consumer lending rates. Inflation is set to rise at a slower 3.5 percent on the assumptions that there is no extreme weather disrupting food production. The central bank is predicted to remain watchful of administered price related inflationary pressure. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.42 3.6 2 -1.2 -0.3 -0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.13 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.5 6 percent
Inflation Rate 3.41 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 4.50 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5 percent
Balance of Trade -1629.30 728 1083 -200 544 300 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.70 32 32 32 33 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 14180.00
13849 13942 14037 14133 14522
Stock Market 5733.85
points
6004 5855 5710 5568 5036
Government Bond 10Y 7.31
percent
6.8 7 7.2 7.41 8.31
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.42
percent
3.6 2 -1.2 -0.3 -0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.06
percent
5.4 5.1 5.5 5.1 5.1
GDP 932.26
USD Billion
1013 1013 1013 1054 1090
GDP Constant Prices 2498413.60
IDR Billion
2540207 2617298 2646923 2499463 2926575
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 820589.64
IDR Billion
803715 844497 909910 798960 1006044
GDP per capita 3974.10
USD
3988 4160 4062 4179 4179
GDP per capita PPP 10764.50
USD
10851 10953 11055 11778 12003
GDP From Agriculture 84577.50
IDR Billion
83472 82465 46210 92335 51093
GDP From Construction 251075.10
IDR Billion
246275 257913 277657 257915 306992
GDP From Manufacturing 534150.70
IDR Billion
539278 550181 559611 536851 618735
GDP From Mining 194889.10
IDR Billion
200779 200588 206839 204792 228692
GDP From Services 45012.80
IDR Billion
43848 44919 46963 43771 51925
GDP From Utilities 34149.20
IDR Billion
33457 34992 36840 32957 40732
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.13
percent
5.4 5.5 5.7 5.5 6
Employed Persons 124538849.00
124012136 124538849 124538849 124538849 124538849
Unemployed Persons 7005262.00
7380609 6993963 7380609 6970195 7509728
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.02
percent
68.8 67.8 68.8 67.92 69.1
Minimum Wages 3.60
IDR Million/Month
3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1
Wages in Manufacturing 2636846.00
IDR/Month
3221000 3342000 3602000 4081000 4562000
Population 258.70
Million
260 261 262 262 274
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 60
Retirement Age Men 58.00
58 58 58 58 60
Living Wage Family 2869600.00
IDR/Month
3000000 3000000 3000000 3100000 3100000
Living Wage Individual 1678100.00
IDR/Month
1678100 1678100 1678100 1678100 1678100
Wages Low Skilled 3080800.00
IDR/Month
4000000 4000000 4000000 4300000 4500000
Wages High Skilled 4951000.00
IDR/Month
4800000 4800000 4800000 5000000 5700000
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.41
percent
3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.41 0.6 0.42 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 132.71
Index Points
135 136 137 138 148
Core Consumer Prices 123.86
Index Points
125 125 127 127 139
Core Inflation Rate 2.69
percent
4 2.51 3.8 2.39 4.8
GDP Deflator 140.30
Index Points
142 140 143 140 151
Producer Prices 162.35
Index Points
164 166 170 173 189
Export Prices 156.60
Index Points
147 154 150 153 155
Import Prices 143.78
Index Points
137 138 139 134 147
Food Inflation 5.15
percent
4.2 4.5 4.6 4 4
Producer Prices Change 3.40
percent
6.1 6.5 6.8 6.5 5
CPI Housing Utilities 128.79
Index Points
132 133 133 134 144
CPI Transportation 129.95
Index Points
135 134 135 135 146
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.50
percent
4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5
Interbank Rate 6.35
percent
6.45 6.45 6.45 6.45 6.95
Money Supply M0 549155.84
IDR Billion
528000 526445 538000 526893 560000
Money Supply M1 1361075.00
IDR Billion
1390000 1352140 1459000 1352133 1649900
Money Supply M2 5394900.00
IDR Billion
5260000 5600900 5670000 5791352 6690000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124900.00
USD Million
130000 126343 133000 127077 152000
Loans to Private Sector 4241569.00
IDR Billion
4325181 4081764 45020050 4067160 5007960
Deposit Interest Rate 3.75
percent
4 4 3.5 3.5 3.75
Lending Rate 5.25
percent
5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.75
Loan Growth 8.54
percent
6.8 8.34 6.8 8.39 5.9
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50
percent
5.5 6.5 5.5 6.5 6
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1629.30
USD Million
728 1083 -200 544 300
Exports 14465.80
USD Million
14628 14571 14600 14126 16500
Imports 16095.10
USD Million
13900 13487 14800 13583 16200
Current Account -5500.00
USD Million
-2300 -4818 -1400 -4916 -3100
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.2
External Debt 352246.73
USD Million
333681 352247 333682 352247 377248
Terms of Trade 108.94
Index Points
108 111 108 114 105
Foreign Direct Investment 108.90
IDR Trillion
116 118 125 111 134
Remittances 2223.00
USD Million
2280 2204 2350 2187 2600
Tourist Arrivals 1364576.00
1063865 1070000 1203098 1051600 1485815
Gold Reserves 80.60
Tonnes
78.07 80.3 80.28 80.29 80.28
Crude Oil Production 790.00
BBL/D/1K
770 805 805 815 830
Terrorism Index 4.55
4.9 4.48 4.9 4.5 4
Weapons Sales 102.00
USD Million
58 56.91 58 40 64
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.70
percent
32 32 32 33 35
Government Budget -2.46
percent of GDP
-2.2 -1.8 -2.2 -1.66 -2
Government Budget Value -347356.70
IDR Billion
-319636 -325952 -319636 -344083 -297086
Government Spending 146088.51
IDR Billion
188901 198620 285947 149455 316158
Government Revenues 1656890.70
IDR Billion
2294149 1630933 2294149 1644907 2735670
Fiscal Expenditure 2004247.20
IDR Billion
2613785 1956885 2613785 1988991 3032756
Military Expenditure 7910.80
USD Million
8134 7576 8134 7578 13162
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 106.28
Index Points
109 112 109 112 108
Manufacturing PMI 51.60
51.2 50.64 50.5 50.64 51.5
Industrial Production -3.50
percent
5.5 4.11 4.7 3.73 6.6
Industrial Production Mom -1.21
percent
2 2.1 2.4 3.98 1.8
Capacity Utilization 76.27
percent
77.4 76.03 77.2 76.03 77.8
Changes in Inventories 68765.60
IDR Billion
47500 18352 -22800 18323 -29600
Car Registrations 102256.00
108200 91766 99220 90572 115000
Internet Speed 7203.29
KBps
9125 9476 9816 10142 13118
IP Addresses 2826875.00
IP
2789774 2796091 2796265 2796270 2799337
Competitiveness Index 4.68
Points
4.7 4.53 4.7 4.64 4.9
Competitiveness Rank 36.00
33 38 33 38 30
Copper Production 197122.00
Tonnes
250000 165681 280000 165681 330000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
42 36 42 36 45
Corruption Rank 96.00
80 96 80 96 77
Ease of Doing Business 72.00
85 72 85 72 79
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 122.20
Index Points
120 123 123 123 123
Retail Sales MoM 4.50
percent
3.6 1.01 6.2 1.05 2.5
Retail Sales YoY 2.50
percent
9.2 5.87 9.2 7.93 12
Consumer Spending 1373537.50
IDR Billion
1362242 1407096 1447654 1375549 1600602
Consumer Credit 2198756.00
IDR Billion
2226882 2266685 2306736 2346655 2771699
Households Debt To Gdp 16.90
percent of GDP
17.1 16.9 17.5 16.9 17.7
Gasoline Prices 0.46
USD/Liter
0.47 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.27
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 205.64
Index Points
212 203 217 203 231
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 26 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 9.74
percent
9.74 9.74 9.74 10 15.74
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.74
percent
11.74 5.74 11.74 5.74 11.74
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 26.41
celsius
25.94 25.58 25.74 25.77 26.32
Precipitation 297.99
mm
242 176 261 278 244