France 10-Year Bond Yield Below 3.7%

France’s 10-year OAT yield fell below 3.7%, but remained close to 2009-highs reached in March, as persistent inflation concerns continued to anchor borrowing costs at elevated levels. Optimism over diplomatic progress in the US–Iran conflict has done little to ease pressure on bond markets, with investors still demanding a higher risk premium amid ongoing uncertainty and expectations of further ECB rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in two 25bps rate hikes by the ECB this year, down from three expected just a few weeks ago. Earlier in the week, ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that elevated energy costs have pushed the eurozone off its baseline economic trajectory, but did not indicate any immediate rate action.

France’s 10-year OAT yield rose to 3.68%, nearing multi-year highs, as persistent inflation concerns outweighed optimism from US-Iran peace negotiations. While mediators confirmed progress in extending the ceasefire, with both sides agreeing to continue talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations, uncertainty remains after the US announced plans to deploy 10,000 additional troops to the region. Though oil prices fell below $100 per barrel on dialogue hopes, elevated energy costs continue to fuel inflation, prompting markets to price in at least two ECB rate hikes by year-end. ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that higher energy costs have shifted the eurozone’s economic trajectory but stopped short of signaling immediate rate increases.

France’s 10-year OAT yield fell below 3.7% as investor optimism grew over potential US-Iran peace talks, with Pakistan offering to host further negotiations. The latest Islamabad discussions collapsed, leading to a US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. While oil prices dropped below $100 on hopes of a deal and Strait reopening, temporarily easing inflation fears, the OAT yield remains near multi-year highs. Markets expect a more hawkish European Central Bank, pricing in at least two rate hikes by end-2026 amid lingering inflation concerns.