French 10Y OAT Yield Surges to Highest Since 2011

2026-03-13 09:35 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed above 3.65%, reaching its highest level since November 2011, as escalating Middle East tensions heightened inflation concerns and fueled expectations of further European Central Bank rate hikes.

Oil prices continued their upward trajectory despite recent measures aimed at easing the energy supply shock, with investors doubtful that these efforts will fully offset potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The spike in energy costs has led money markets to price in two ECB rate hikes this year, a significant shift from last month when no moves were expected.

Attention now turns to the ECB’s upcoming policy meeting, where President Christine Lagarde is expected to outline how the bank plans to protect the eurozone from inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict.

Earlier this week, she reiterated that the ECB would act to prevent a repeat of the inflation shocks seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



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French 10Y OAT Yield Surges to Highest Since 2011
France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed above 3.65%, reaching its highest level since November 2011, as escalating Middle East tensions heightened inflation concerns and fueled expectations of further European Central Bank rate hikes. Oil prices continued their upward trajectory despite recent measures aimed at easing the energy supply shock, with investors doubtful that these efforts will fully offset potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The spike in energy costs has led money markets to price in two ECB rate hikes this year, a significant shift from last month when no moves were expected. Attention now turns to the ECB’s upcoming policy meeting, where President Christine Lagarde is expected to outline how the bank plans to protect the eurozone from inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict. Earlier this week, she reiterated that the ECB would act to prevent a repeat of the inflation shocks seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
2026-03-13
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France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed to 3.6%, reaching its highest level since early January as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of further interest rate increases. Oil prices continued their upward trend, briefly moving above $100 per barrel after Iran intensified attacks on oil and transportation infrastructure across the region. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency’s plan to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves offered limited immediate relief, as the supply could take weeks or even months to reach the market. Money markets are fully pricing in a European Central Bank rate hike by July, with an 85% chance of a second increase by December. This marks a notable shift from late February, before the outbreak of the Iran war, when traders had placed roughly a 40% probability on an ECB rate cut before the end of the year.
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France’s 10-Year OAT Yield Rises Above 3.5%
France’s 10-year OAT yield jumped back above 3.5%, its highest level since January 21, as investors increasingly factored in a more hawkish approach from the European Central Bank amid renewed inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict have pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and prompting markets to reassess the outlook for monetary policy. Although oil prices have eased from peaks above $100 per barrel, the earlier spike has already had a significant impact on rate expectations. Money markets are now pricing in an interest rate hike from the ECB later this year, a notable shift from the previously modest chance of a rate cut before the conflict. On Tuesday, Christine Lagarde reiterated that the central bank remains prepared to take all necessary actions to keep inflation under control, despite ongoing energy price pressures.
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