Sugar Futures at Near 2-Month Low

Sugar futures in the US eased to around 13.6 US cents, the lowest since mid-February, largely reflecting expectations of abundant global supplies, particularly due to higher output in major producing countries such as Brazil, India and Thailand. Market participants are closely monitoring the progress of the 2026/27 harvest in Brazil, which began this month and is increasing supply availability. Global sugar prices reversed a downtrend that had persisted since March 2025, rising sharply following the onset of the Middle East conflict in February, driven by higher oil prices and expectations of stronger ethanol demand. n general, higher oil prices tend to favor sugar, stimulating ethanol production by mills and reducing the supply of the commodity in the international market.

Sugar futures in the US rose to around 13.9 US cents but stayed near one-month lows, as higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions were offset by prospects of abundant supply. Rising oil prices could incentivize mills to divert more sugarcane to ethanol, potentially tightening supply. Still, expectations of a sizeable surplus in 2025/26 continue to dominate, supported by strong output from major producers. Latest data showed India’s sugar production rose 9% year-on-year to 27.12 million tonnes in the October–March period of the 2025/26 marketing year, while Brazil’s Center-South output edged up 0.7% to 40.25 million tonnes, with mills favoring sugar production. Attention now turns to the 2026/27 season, with leading global analysts still expecting a surplus, albeit a smaller one, supported by favorable harvest forecasts in Brazil, India, and Thailand.

Sugar decreased to 14.14 USd/Lbs, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 1.53%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.83%.