Sugar Futures Remain Near 1-Month Lows

Sugar futures in the US rose to around 13.9 US cents but stayed near one-month lows, as higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions were offset by prospects of abundant supply. Rising oil prices could incentivize mills to divert more sugarcane to ethanol, potentially tightening supply. Still, expectations of a sizeable surplus in 2025/26 continue to dominate, supported by strong output from major producers. Latest data showed India’s sugar production rose 9% year-on-year to 27.12 million tonnes in the October–March period of the 2025/26 marketing year, while Brazil’s Center-South output edged up 0.7% to 40.25 million tonnes, with mills favoring sugar production. Attention now turns to the 2026/27 season, with leading global analysts still expecting a surplus, albeit a smaller one, supported by favorable harvest forecasts in Brazil, India, and Thailand.

Sugar decreased to 14.14 USd/Lbs, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 1.53%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.83%.

Sugar futures in the US eased toward 14.1 US cents, the lowest since early March, pressured by increased production in top producers India and Brazil. India’s Food Secretary said the government has no plans to ban sugar exports this year, easing market concerns that more production might be diverted to ethanol and reinforcing the scenario of greater availability. At the same time, recent data showed that the country's production grew by 9% in the period between October and March of the 2025/26 crop year, totaling 27.12 million tons. In Brazil, Center-South sugar production rose 0.7% to 40.25 million tons in 2025/26, with a higher share of sugarcane processed into sugar. Easing geopolitical concerns also exerted downward pressure. The announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, along with the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices sharply lower, discouraging producers from diverting more sugarcane to ethanol.