Sugar Hits 4-week Low

Sugar futures in the US rose to around 14.4 US cents, up from one-month-lows of 13.9 US cents hit on May 28, supported by higher oil prices that encourage cane diversion to ethanol production and may tighten supply. At the same time, concerns are rising over an emerging El Niño pattern and a weaker Indian monsoon outlook. India’s weather office projected monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-term average for June–September, down from 92% in April. This led Covrig to reduce the global sugar surplus for 2026–27 to 100,000 tons, down from 1.4 million tons projected on March 7. Meanwhile, Unica reported a strong increase in sugar production in Brazil’s key Center-South region, with output rising 109.48% yoy to 1.8 million metric tons in the second half of April. Data also indicated a continued shift toward ethanol production, with mills directing 59.66% of cane to biofuel.

Sugar decreased to 14.37 USd/Lbs, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar gained 1.14%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 14.85%.

Sugar futures in the US fell toward 14.3 US cents, the lowest since late April, partly influenced by oil prices. Optimism over a potential US–Iran deal pushed crude oil prices lower, reducing incentives for mills to divert sugarcane into ethanol production and potentially increasing sugar supply. At the same time, higher shipments from Thailand, the world's second largest exporter of the commodity, reinforced the scenario of ample global supply. According to industry data, Thai sugar exports between January and April totaled 1.6 million tons, a 29% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. The market also continued to weigh recent projections of increased supply. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its estimate of the 2025/26 global surplus, projecting record production of 182 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous season, and a surplus of 2.2 million tons versus a prior forecast of 1.22 million, reversing a 3.46 million-ton deficit in 2024/25.