Sugar Hits 4-week Low

Sugar decreased to 14.14 USd/Lbs, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 1.53%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.83%.

Sugar futures in the US eased toward 14.1 US cents, the lowest since early March, pressured by increased production in top producers India and Brazil. India’s Food Secretary said the government has no plans to ban sugar exports this year, easing market concerns that more production might be diverted to ethanol and reinforcing the scenario of greater availability. At the same time, recent data showed that the country's production grew by 9% in the period between October and March of the 2025/26 crop year, totaling 27.12 million tons. In Brazil, Center-South sugar production rose 0.7% to 40.25 million tons in 2025/26, with a higher share of sugarcane processed into sugar. Easing geopolitical concerns also exerted downward pressure. The announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, along with the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices sharply lower, discouraging producers from diverting more sugarcane to ethanol.

Sugar futures in the US traded around 15 US cents, holding close to the lowest since March 18, as the market weighed current supply availability. The National Federation of Sugar Mill Cooperatives of India (NFCO) reported that India’s sugar production increased by 9% year-on-year to 27.12 million tons during Oct.–Mar. of the 2025/26 season. However, output is expected to fall for a second consecutive year this season (2026/27), as lower cane yields force mills to halt operations and constrain supply. In Brazil, Center-South sugar production rose 0.7% to 40.25 million tons in 2025/26, with a higher share of sugarcane processed into sugar. Looking ahead, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, forecasts global sugar production to decline 2.3% this season (2026/27), largely driven by an anticipated 8.7% drop in Brazilian output. Meanwhile, sugar prices remain sensitive to oil price fluctuations amid the Middle East crisis, which can impact ethanol production and, consequently, sugar supply.