Silver Steadies Amid Iran Deal Uncertainty

Silver steadied above $75 an ounce on Monday following a volatile week, as efforts to secure a longer-term ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran showed limited signs of progress. Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran exchanged proposals seeking amendments to a draft accord that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though it remained uncertain whether the negotiations were moving closer to a resolution. President Donald Trump also reiterated his call for Iran to halt its nuclear program and fully restore the strait’s status as an open international waterway. Silver has faced headwinds since late February as the Middle East conflict drove energy prices sharply higher, fueling concerns about inflationary pressures and the prospect of interest rate hikes. Investors are now awaiting the latest US monthly jobs report later this week, which could offer fresh insight into labor market strength and the likely path of Federal Reserve policy.

Silver rose to $76 an ounce on Friday and was on track for an over 3% monthly gain, as investors balanced reports of a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension against persistent inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. Negotiations to end the three-month war continued, with reports of a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension awaiting President Trump’s approval. However, disruptions to shipping and energy infrastructure could keep oil prices elevated, maintaining the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. US inflation data this month showed the fastest rise in three years in April, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged well into 2027. UBS recently revised down its silver supply deficit forecast to 60–70 million ounces from 300 million ounces and cut its full-year investment demand outlook to 300 million ounces from over 400 million ounces.

Silver steadied near $76 an ounce on Friday after recovering in the previous session, as reports of a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran eased concerns over inflation and interest rates. Washington and Tehran are reportedly set to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and begin talks over Iran’s nuclear program, while also considering unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Still, the report noted that President Donald Trump has not yet approved the proposed terms, while Vice President JD Vance said it remains too early to determine whether or when a deal with Iran could be finalized. Silver has faced strong selling pressure since late February as the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict fueled inflation worries and strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this year, although policymakers continue to warn about persistent inflation risks.