Silver Holds Rebound

Silver rose to $76 an ounce on Friday and was on track for an over 3% monthly gain, as investors balanced reports of a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension against persistent inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. Negotiations to end the three-month war continued, with reports of a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension awaiting President Trump’s approval. However, disruptions to shipping and energy infrastructure could keep oil prices elevated, maintaining the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. US inflation data this month showed the fastest rise in three years in April, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged well into 2027. UBS recently revised down its silver supply deficit forecast to 60–70 million ounces from 300 million ounces and cut its full-year investment demand outlook to 300 million ounces from over 400 million ounces.

Silver steadied near $76 an ounce on Friday after recovering in the previous session, as reports of a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran eased concerns over inflation and interest rates. Washington and Tehran are reportedly set to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and begin talks over Iran’s nuclear program, while also considering unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Still, the report noted that President Donald Trump has not yet approved the proposed terms, while Vice President JD Vance said it remains too early to determine whether or when a deal with Iran could be finalized. Silver has faced strong selling pressure since late February as the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict fueled inflation worries and strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this year, although policymakers continue to warn about persistent inflation risks.

Silver climbed back above $74 an ounce on Thursday after briefly hitting a four-week low, as investors balanced renewed hopes of progress in Middle East peace talks against lingering inflation pressures and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook. According to Axios, US and Iranian negotiators have reportedly agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire and open negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, though final approval from President Trump is still pending. Despite the tentative diplomatic progress, tensions remain high, with continued US–Iran exchanges and Israel resuming strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid a fragile ceasefire. Meanwhile, elevated energy prices sustain inflation risks and dampen expectations for near-term rate cuts. Fed officials maintained a cautious stance, with Lisa Cook supporting steady rates for now but signaling openness to hikes if inflation accelerates, while John Williams warned inflation could rise toward 4% in the near term.