Rice Prices Stay Elevated on Supply Risks

Rice futures traded above $15 per hundredweight, holding close to their highest level since September 2024, as weather risks continued to cloud the supply outlook. While global rice supplies remain ample, erratic weather and below-normal monsoon rains in major Asian producers, particularly India, have raised concerns over crop yields and tightened expectations for future supplies. Milled rice production in India was revised lower to 147 million tonnes for 2026-27, down from 154 million tonnes in 2025-26, though Indian rice prices are expected to stay competitive as the government continues to offload excess stocks. Higher shipping costs have also added to price pressures, while some producers have held back stocks in anticipation of higher prices.

Rice futures traded around $14.8 per hundredweight, their highest since January 2025, amid ongoing worries about next season’s supply outlook. Global supplies remain relatively comfortable for now, but weather risks are increasingly clouding the outlook for the 2026/27 crop, particularly across major Asian producers. Rainfall has been uneven across Asia, with heavy monsoon rains in some areas contrasting with persistent dryness in other key rice-producing regions. A strengthening El Niño could further shift weather patterns toward hotter and drier conditions, increasing risks to harvests and food supplies. Top exporter India is on course for its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with rainfall expected to end the season around 15% below the long-term average, which would make it the weakest since 2009. Demand is also providing support, with African buyers stepping up purchases and adding to pressure on available supplies.

Rice increased to 14.50 USD/cwt, the highest since January 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 0.36%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 24.56%.