Rice Hits 18-month High

Rice futures traded around $14.8 per hundredweight, their highest since January 2025, amd ongoing worries about next season’s supply outlook. Global supplies remain relatively comfortable for now, but weather risks are increasingly clouding the outlook for the 2026/27 crop, particularly across major Asian producers. Rainfall has been uneven across Asia, with heavy monsoon rains in some areas contrasting with persistent dryness in other key rice-producing regions. A strengthening El Niño could further shift weather patterns toward hotter and drier conditions, increasing risks to harvests and food supplies. Top exporter India is on course for its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with rainfall expected to end the season around 15% below the long-term average, which would make it the weakest since 2009. Demand is also providing support, with African buyers stepping up purchases and adding to pressure on available supplies.

Rice increased to 14.50 USD/cwt, the highest since January 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 0.36%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 24.56%.

Rice futures traded above $14 per hundredweight, holding close to their highest level since early 2025, as traders looked beyond ample current supplies and focused on climate-related risks. Rice production is highly dependent on rainfall and temperature, making the crop particularly vulnerable to weather disruptions. Forecasters warn that a stronger El Niño and broader climate change are increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts, heatwaves, and erratic monsoon rains across Asia, raising the risk of lower yields in major producing countries such as India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. While improved monsoon rains in top grower India have accelerated planting and boosted exports, helping keep global supplies comfortable, uncertainty over weather conditions later in the growing season continues to support prices. Additional upside comes from the USDA's forecast for tighter US rice supplies and lower ending stocks.