Iron Ore Falls on Strong Supply Outlook

Iron ore futures weakened to around CNY 680 per ton, trading close to four-year lows as rising global shipments and higher arrivals at Chinese ports pointed to ample supply. Industry data showed that global iron ore shipments increased by 3.89 million tons week-on-week to 34.77 million tons in the week ending October 18. Shipments from Australia and Brazil also rose by a combined 4.79 million tons to 29.82 million tons. Meanwhile, iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports climbed by 2.73 million tons to 28.35 million tons over the same period. Adding to the bearish outlook, the World Steel Association revised its 2026 forecast, projecting a 0.1% decline in global steel demand, reversing its earlier estimate of 0.3% growth made in April. Steel consumption continued to face pressure from China’s prolonged property downturn and sluggish construction activity, although exports offered some support.

Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 680 per ton, recovering from four-year lows amid stronger crude steel production and better-than-expected economic growth in China. Official data showed that China’s daily crude steel output increased 1.9% month over month to 2.45 million tons in September, marking the first monthly rise since June, supported by robust exports and expectations of stronger seasonal domestic demand. Meanwhile, China’s economy grew 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, accelerating from 4.3% in the previous quarter and exceeding forecasts of 4.4%. However, underlying market conditions continued to weigh on iron ore, with ample global supplies, expanding mining capacity, and rising shipments expected in the fourth quarter. Sentiment was further dampened by the World Steel Association’s forecast of a 0.1% contraction in global steel demand in 2026, reversing its April projection of 0.3% growth.

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 670 per ton, touching fresh four-year lows as increased blast furnace maintenance in China and abundant global supply weighed on prices. Industry data showed that projected hot metal production losses from blast furnace maintenance increased for a third consecutive week during October 10–16, with cumulative losses rising by more than 270,000 tons since late September. Meanwhile, iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil climbed by 1.99 million tons to 12.58 million tons in the week ended October 11. Global mining capacity is also expanding, while producers are increasing fourth-quarter shipments to meet quarterly and annual targets. Further dampening sentiment, the World Steel Association forecast a 0.1% contraction in global steel demand in 2026, reversing its April projection of 0.3% growth amid weakening demand in China and disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict.