Gold Rises as Markets Reassess Fed Rate Outlook

2026-10-01 13:20 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Gold prices gained momentum on Thursday, trading around $4,175 an ounce, after softer-than-expected US inflation data eased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, although higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar limited gains.

US inflation rose less than expected in August, while price pressures for the previous month were revised lower.

The data reduced the odds of a rate hike in October, with markets pricing in less than a 40% chance, while still seeing nearly a 90% probability of an increase in December.

10-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2002, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while a firmer dollar also weighed on the metal.

Attention now turns to Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a net gain of around 90,000 jobs, as well as comments from Fed policymakers.

Meanwhile, US-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the Middle East conflict remain stalled.



News Stream
Gold Rises as Markets Reassess Fed Rate Outlook
Gold prices gained momentum on Thursday, trading around $4,175 an ounce, after softer-than-expected US inflation data eased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, although higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar limited gains. US inflation rose less than expected in August, while price pressures for the previous month were revised lower. The data reduced the odds of a rate hike in October, with markets pricing in less than a 40% chance, while still seeing nearly a 90% probability of an increase in December. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2002, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while a firmer dollar also weighed on the metal. Attention now turns to Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a net gain of around 90,000 jobs, as well as comments from Fed policymakers. Meanwhile, US-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the Middle East conflict remain stalled.
2026-10-01
Gold Rises on Soft US PCE Inflation Data
Gold climbed toward $4,200 an ounce on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session as softer-than-expected US PCE inflation data reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this month. The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in August, below the 0.4% forecast, while core PCE increased 0.2%, also coming in below expectations for a 0.3% gain. Markets now see roughly a 38% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, down from 51% before the PCE release. Oil prices also eased amid signs of improving energy flows from the Middle East, despite continued deadlock in US-Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, Treasury yields remained near multi-decade highs amid concerns over persistent energy-driven inflation, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. Traders continue to price in around a 97% probability of a Fed rate increase in December.
2026-10-01
Gold Remains Under Pressure
Gold slipped toward $4,150 an ounce on Thursday after surrendering intraday gains in the previous session, as elevated oil prices and Treasury yields outweighed support from softer-than-expected US inflation data. The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in August, below the 0.4% forecast, while core PCE increased 0.2%, also falling short of expectations for a 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%. Markets now see roughly a 38% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, down from 51% before the PCE release. Meanwhile, oil prices remain elevated as the US and Iran make little progress in negotiations despite signs of recovering Middle East flows. Treasury yields also climbed to multi-decade highs amid concerns over persistent energy-driven inflation, which could prompt tighter monetary policy.
2026-10-01