Australia Inflation Gauge Extends Decline

Australia's Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose 1.0% month-on-month in July 2026, reversing a 0.4% decline in June and marking its first increase since April, pointing to renewed inflationary pressures. The reading aligns with the Reserve Bank of Australia's June meeting minutes, which indicated that underlying price pressures were expected to intensify in the June quarter. Official data showed headline inflation eased to 4.0% in May from 4.2%, mainly due to lower fuel prices. However, underlying inflation remained persistent, with the trimmed mean accelerating to 3.6% from 3.4% as businesses passed through higher costs linked to Middle East tensions. Governor Michele Bullock recently reiterated that underlying inflation remains too high and warned it could rise further as higher oil prices stemming from the Iran conflict feed into broader prices, reinforcing expectations that the RBA will remain cautious on policy easing.

Australia’s Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4% month-on-month in June 2026, following a 0.3% decline in the previous month and marking its second consecutive monthly decrease. It was also the third monthly drop this year, pointing to easing price pressures across a broad range of goods and services. Recent data showed annual inflation slowed to 4.0% in May from 4.2% in April, as automotive fuel prices rose at a slower pace following the reduction in the fuel excise. Despite the moderation, inflation remained well above the central bank’s 2–3% target range, with underlying price pressures expected to strengthen in the June quarter.

Australia’s Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.3% month-on-month in May 2026, reversing a 0.6% increase in the previous month and marking the first decline since February. The decline reflected easing price pressures across a range of goods and services, after recent data showed the annual inflation rate slowed to 4.2% in April from 4.6% previously, as automotive fuel prices rose at a softer pace following the reduction of the fuel excise. However, inflation remained well above the central bank’s 2–3% target range, suggesting underlying price pressures are still elevated despite the recent moderation.