Australia Inflation Gauge Jumps to Record High

Australia’s Monthly Inflation Measure, compiled by the Melbourne Institute, climbed 1.3% month-on-month in March 2026, reversing a 0.2% drop in the previous month and marking the strongest increase on record. The sharp rebound pointed to renewed price pressures since the second half of 2025, driven in part by higher fuel and transport costs and lingering supply-side frictions. Heightened uncertainty over the Middle East conflict has also lifted global energy prices, adding to the risk of imported inflation for Australia. The annual inflation stood at 3.7% in February, little changed from the prior 3.8%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target band, suggesting price pressures are still proving sticky despite earlier signs of moderation.

Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge, compiled by the Melbourne Institute, fell 0.2% month-on-month in February 2026, reversing a 0.2% rise in the previous month and marking the first decline since last August. The pullback likely reflected softer prices for fuel and some discretionary goods after earlier seasonal increases, alongside easing supply-chain pressures. The latest result highlighted progress made in easing inflation over the past year despite signs of renewed cost pressures in H2 of 2025 amid elevated service expenses and a tight labor market. In January, the annual inflation held at 3.8%, unchanged from the prior month but remained outside the central bank’s 2–3% target, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky even as headline momentum cools.

Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge, compiled by the Melbourne Institute, rose 0.2% month-on-month in January 2026, easing sharply from December’s two-year high of 1% and marking the slowest pace since last August. The latest result comes ahead of the Reserve Bank’s first policy meeting of 2026, following its decision to hold the cash rate at 3.6% for a third consecutive meeting in December. The moderation highlights how earlier monetary tightening is filtering through the economy, tempering demand-side pressures. Even so, policymakers are expected to remain cautious, with underlying inflation still above target and the labor market relatively tight. The central bank is likely to maintain a restrictive stance and stress data dependence in the months ahead.