Australia Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated

2026-09-10 01:35 By Farida Husna 1 min. read

Australia’s consumer inflation expectations stood at 4.9% in September 2026, matching August’s pace amid persistent price pressures.

The outlook was reinforced by July data showing trimmed mean CPI stayed elevated at 3.6% year-on-year, unchanged from June and well above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range.

Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said policymakers would consider whether further tightening is warranted at their September meeting, while Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stressed the bank has limited tolerance for stronger inflation pressures.

The hawkish signals have prompted all four major banks, NAB, ANZ, CBA and Westpac, to forecast another rate hike before year-end, with NAB expecting a September move and the other three seeing a November increase.



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Australia Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations stood at 4.9% in September 2026, matching August’s pace amid persistent price pressures. The outlook was reinforced by July data showing trimmed mean CPI stayed elevated at 3.6% year-on-year, unchanged from June and well above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said policymakers would consider whether further tightening is warranted at their September meeting, while Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stressed the bank has limited tolerance for stronger inflation pressures. The hawkish signals have prompted all four major banks, NAB, ANZ, CBA and Westpac, to forecast another rate hike before year-end, with NAB expecting a September move and the other three seeing a November increase.
2026-09-10
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Australia's consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.7% in July 2026, down from 5.5% the previous month, marking the lowest reading since January. The decline reflected moderating headline inflation, though still above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target. Meanwhile, underlying inflation remains sticky, with the trimmed mean CPI up 3.6% year-on-year in May, the fastest pace since September 2024. Governor Michele Bullock noted that three rate hikes since early 2026 have curbed domestic price pressures and limited spillovers from higher oil and commodity costs. The central bank has reiterated its commitment to restoring price stability, stressing that while inflation accelerated in late 2025 amid supply shocks and energy costs, tighter policy should gradually ease pressures.
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