Australia Q4 Import Prices Unexpectedly Rise

Australia’s import prices increased 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, defying market expectations of a 0.2% decline and reversing a 0.4% fall in Q3. It also marked the first increase in three quarters, as gold, non-monetary, surged 19.7% on safe-haven demand as investors and central banks built reserves. Meanwhile, crude fertilisers and minerals jumped 42.5% after sulphur hit record highs amid supply constraints and strong clean energy and agricultural demand. Metalliferous ores and scrap climbed 11.5%, driven by reduced zinc output from Chinese smelters and depleted inventories. Also, road vehicle prices rose 2.9% following annual reviews that lifted import costs. In contrast, telecom equipment prices fell 4.5%, as quality gains in new models and cheaper imports of older phones offset higher list prices. Overall, the rebound highlights commodity-led pressures on Australia’s trade costs, even as select sectors like technology provided relief.

Australia’s import prices fell 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% decline and easing from a 0.8% drop in Q2. This marked the second consecutive quarterly fall. Key contributors to the decrease included telecommunications equipment (-3.4%), as existing models were imported at lower prices, and general industrial machinery and equipment (-2.6%), driven by the Australian dollar’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Coffee, tea, cocoa, and related products also dropped 9.2%, following a reversal in cocoa prices, which are now recovering due to improved supply from West Africa and Ecuador. Offsetting the fall were petroleum products (3.5%) amid rising U.S. demand and Middle Eastern supply concerns, fertilisers (10.4%) on tight global supply and strong agricultural demand, and gold (3.1%) due to investor interest amid economic uncertainty.

Australia’s import prices fell by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, exceeding market expectations of a 0.5% decline and reversing from a 3.3% surge in Q1, which was the fastest increase in three years. This marked the first quarterly contraction since Q3 2024, driven primarily by a sharp 11.5% drop in prices for petroleum, petroleum products, and related materials. The decrease reflected excess global supply from OPEC+ and weaker demand amid slowing manufacturing activity and the ongoing transition to green energy. Offsetting the fall was a 12.5% rise in non-monetary gold prices, as global uncertainty boosted safe-haven demand and central banks continued to build reserves. The appeal of gold was further supported by U.S. Fed rate cuts, which lowered the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Additionally, road vehicle imports rose 1.3%, driven by higher prices for existing car models, though gains were partially offset by the appreciation of the Australian dollar.